For more than a decade, scientists from different countries have been trying to figure out how to predict such natural phenomena as solar flares. Their frequency is determined by eleven-year cycles of solar activity. However, the most powerful and unpleasant manifestations of the activity of the Sun overtake us, quite suddenly, to this day. This is due to the fact that solar flares can be predicted only by analyzing solar magnetic fields, which are not distinguished by constancy and at least minimal stability.
The impact of solar flares on outer space
Solar flares are considered the most unfavorable for space explorers. Representing the greatest degree of threat in the expanses of outer space, waves of powerful explosive energy may well damage communications satellites, and even spacecraft, completely disabling instruments and control systems. Flashes on, forming powerful streams of protons, significantly increase the level of radiation, as a result of which people in outer space can easily be exposed to strong radiation. A certain risk of exposure exists even for passengers of airliners who fly during certain periods, falling on the peaks of outbreak activity.
Under the Soviet Union, leading experts at the Crimean Astrophysical Observatory tried to predict the possibility of solar flares, and if the prerequisites for an energy explosion arose, the astronauts' flights were necessarily postponed. In 1968, the forecast of Soviet scientists about the upcoming solar flare, which was assigned the highest level of danger - three points, became a world sensation. Then the Soyuz-3 spacecraft with Georgy Beregov was landed, and after three hours they observed a powerful flare on the Sun, which for a person in space would be fatal.
Plasma cloud danger and solar flare classification
Solar flares can pose a considerable danger to the inhabitants of our planet, even though the Earth is protected from them by the geomagnetic field and the atmospheric ozone layer. Each such flash is accompanied by a cloud of a kind of plasma and, reaching the Earth, it is this plasma that causes magnetic storms that negatively affect almost all living organisms and disable the most powerful communication systems.
After the start of a solar flare, radiation reaches the Earth's surface within an 8-10-minute period, after which powerfully charged particles are sent towards our planet. Further, within a three-day period, the plasma clouds reach the Earth. A kind of blast wave collides with our planet and causes magnetic storms. The duration of each outbreak usually does not exceed a few minutes, but this time and the power of the energy release is quite enough to affect the state of the Earth and the well-being of its inhabitants.
scientists solar flares have been classified into five types: A, B, C, M, X. In this case, A are flares with a minimum degree of X-ray emission, and each subsequent one is 10 times more intense than the previous one. Class X flares are considered the most powerful and dangerous. Numerous scientists and researchers have noticed that even typhoons, hurricanes and earthquakes most often occur during solar activity. Therefore, forecasts of various natural disasters are often associated with solar flares.
The main types of danger in solar flares
Without exaggerating the level of influence of flares from the Sun on the human body and well-being, it is possible to identify groups of people who are most susceptible to the negative effects of solar system energy explosions.
It has been proven more than once that catastrophes and accidents due to the fault of the human factor increase quantitatively during the days of solar flares. This is due to the fact that during such periods, brain activity is maximally weakened, and concentration of attention is greatly dulled. In addition, for a number of people, magnetic storms are the causative agents of real torment and frustration. There are many such groups:
- People with weakened immune systems;
- The population suffering from cardiovascular diseases, migraines, jumps (drops) in blood pressure;
- People with chronic illnesses that are exacerbated during each solar flare and subsequent magnetic storm;
- Population subject to periodic manifestations of insomnia, loss of appetite, restless sleep;
- Mentally unbalanced individuals.
There are separate opinions, repeatedly confirmed in practice, that many people begin to worry about old wounds, scars, damaged bones or sore joints during magnetic storms. Also, those representatives who have a so-called delayed reaction to magnetic storms can be attributed to a separate group. These are people who experience negative effects a few days after solar flares.
Many experts advise periodically undergoing medical examinations to detect chronic diseases. Since it is precisely this kind of disease that is significantly aggravated during solar flares, it will be possible, if not to prevent the upcoming malaise and deterioration in health, then at least to have medicines at hand.
How scientists are trying to predict solar flares
Given the degree of influence and danger from solar flares, work and attempts to find the most accurate methods for predicting this phenomenon do not stop. For a long time, scientists and weather forecasters considered two ways to solve the problem:
- Casual - is based on predicting the next outbreak by its simulation, for which the physical mechanisms of the outbreak are carefully studied.
- Synoptic - a method that involves the study and analysis of the prerequisites and behavior of the Sun before each flare.
The fact remains that the coronal origin of solar flares and their magnetic nature are directly related. This means that for a better development of forecasting, it will most likely be necessary to link both methods together.
September 6 at 15:02 (MSK) was registered the largest solar flare in the last 12 years. The most powerful release of energy occurred during the period of minimum solar activity, which amazed astronomers. How such events affect the Earth - in the material "Futurist".
The largest solar flare in the last 12 years was recorded by the SDO Solar Dynamics Observatory in active region 2673. An explosion with a power of X9.3 (the letter indicates belonging to the class of extremely large flares, and the number indicates its strength) occurred as a result of the interaction of the two largest groups in several years sun spots. Judging by the radio emission, there was an ejection of matter from the corona - the outer layers of the Sun's atmosphere. The flare followed a weaker one (X2.2), which appeared in this area at 12:10 Moscow time, and on September 4, a series of class M flares, the previous one in power, passed.
According to the Laboratory of Solar X-Ray Astronomy of the Lebedev Physical Institute, this is one of the most powerful explosions that our star is only capable of producing. Over 20 years of solar observations, only five flares of greater intensity were recorded (the last power of X17.0 was recorded in November 2005). The largest of them occurred in November 2003, its capacity was X28.
As a rule, such events occur at the peak of solar activity, but this flare appeared against the backdrop of a solar minimum - and this is its uniqueness. The flare activity after the explosion was 10.3, which corresponds to the highest level. Scientists continue to understand what caused such a large explosion during the "lull" period and predict the consequences for the Earth and outer space. The outbreak was observed only by foreign space observatories. The only Russian solar project (the ROC space observatory Arka) is scheduled for 2024 only.
What is a solar flare?
This is the strongest explosion on the Sun, as a result of which a huge amount of energy accumulated in the star's atmosphere is quickly released. It is caused by the reconnection of magnetic field lines in the solar plasma. Typically, flashes occur in neutral regions located between dark spots with opposite polarity. Large solar flares most often occur during the period of maximum activity in the 11-year cycle. The last maximum of the current solar cycle was in April 2014. Powerful flares can be accompanied by the ejection of matter from the solar corona.
How will this solar flare affect the Earth?
According to space coronographs (instruments that monitor the solar corona and plasma flows in it), a large ejection of solar matter has occurred, and it is directed towards the Earth. The Solar X-ray Astronomy Laboratory assumes that plasma clouds (usually they are 100 million kilometers from the Earth's orbit and move at a speed of 1000 km / s) will approach the Earth on September 8 and hit its magnetic field. The arrival time of the solar matter is still being calculated. The exact strength of the consequences is not yet clear: it depends on the direction of the magnetic field in the cloud. If on impact it coincides with the earth, the consequences will be minimal: the solar plasma does not break through. If the magnetic fields are multidirectional, the plasma will break through the magnetic shield and rush into the Earth's magnetosphere - and then auroras will bloom all over the planet from the equator to the poles and a strong magnetic storm will rage. Determining the direction of magnetic fields is a difficult task.
Under the action of the flow of charged particles, the upper layers of the Earth's atmosphere are heated. Along with intense radio emission, this degrades the accuracy of navigation systems and leads to disruption of satellites, radio communications and telecommunications equipment. Satellites in high orbits are particularly affected: either the craft becomes highly charged during a storm and parts fail, or its components are bombarded by charged particles. But it is impossible to predict which particular satellite will die.
So far, the world's observatories are predicting a magnetic storm with a strength of 1-2 on a 5-point scale in the next three days, which will last at least 24 hours. Scientists note sharp changes in the Earth's magnetic field.
What other problems could there be?
Power outage in large areas. The most famous case occurred in 1989 in Quebec. Powerful currents in the magnetosphere cause excessively high voltage in power lines and disable electrical transformers and power plants. Most often this happens closer to the poles of the Earth, where the greatest induced currents and in regions with long power lines and where the earth conducts poorly.
Is it true that solar flares cause headaches and bad mood?
Yes, this can happen. On the Earth's surface, we are well protected from the effects of charged particles and X-rays from the Sun by the Earth's magnetic field and atmosphere. The small amount of very high energy particles that reach the surface does not significantly increase the levels of radiation we experience every day. The heating of the atmosphere can lead to changes in atmospheric pressure, which can affect weather-dependent people. There are claims about the impact of magnetic storms on human health, but there is no conclusive evidence. Basically, the discussion of the harm of geomagnetic storms takes place in the Russian environment, while abroad it is discussed, but not postulated.
Astronauts on the ISS do not suffer from radiation, as the station is in a fairly low orbit. But a solar flare could be dangerous for those flying to the Moon or Mars.
Do pacemakers break down?
Pacemakers can register the effects of strong solar storms, but these “glitches” are not dangerous for patients.
Do solar flares affect the psyche?
Some researchers are finding a correlation between a solar flare and an increase in the number of suicides. However, there is no direct evidence. Presumably, geomagnetic storms can desynchronize the circadian rhythms associated with the change of day and night, and the production of melatonin, a hormone that has an anti-stress effect. The pineal gland, which regulates the circadian rhythm and melatonin production, is sensitive to changes in the magnetic field. It can affect our mood.
On September 6, two powerful flares occurred on the Sun, and the second of them turned out to be the most powerful in 12 years, since 2005. This event caused disturbances in radio communications and GPS reception on the day side of the Earth, lasting about an hour.
However, the main problems are still ahead.
Solar flares are catastrophic phenomena on the surface of the Sun caused by the reconnection (reconnection) of magnetic field lines "frozen" into the solar plasma. At some point, the extremely twisted magnetic field lines break off and reconnect in a new configuration, releasing an enormous amount of energy,
producing additional heating of the nearest parts of the solar atmosphere and acceleration of charged particles to near-light speeds.
Solar plasma is a gas of electrically charged particles and, therefore, has its own magnetic field, and the solar magnetic fields and plasma magnetic fields are coordinated with each other. When plasma is expelled from the Sun, the ends of its magnetic lines remain "attached" to the surface. As a result, the magnetic lines are strongly stretched until, finally, they are torn from tension (like an elastic band that has been stretched too much) and re-closed again, forming a new configuration containing already less energy - in fact, this process is called the reconnection of lines. magnetic field.
Depending on the intensity of solar flares, they are classified, and in this case we are talking about the most powerful flares - the X-class.
The energy released during such flashes is equivalent to the explosions of billions of megaton hydrogen bombs.
An event classified as X2.2 occurred at 11:57 am, and an even more powerful event, X9.3, at 2:53 pm just three hours later (see website Laboratory of Solar X-Ray Astronomy FIAN)
The strongest solar flare recorded in the modern era occurred on November 4, 2003, and it was classified as X28 (its consequences were not so catastrophic, since the ejection was not aimed directly at the Earth).
Extreme solar flares can also be accompanied by powerful ejections of matter from the solar corona, the so-called coronal mass ejections. This is a slightly different phenomenon, for the Earth it can pose both a greater and lesser danger, depending on whether the release is directed directly at our planet. In any case, the effects of these emissions affect after 1-3 days. We are talking about billions of tons of matter flying at a speed of hundreds of kilometers per second.
When the ejecta reaches the vicinity of our planet, charged particles begin to interact with its magnetosphere, causing worsening "space weather". Particles falling along magnetic lines cause auroras in temperate latitudes, magnetic storms lead to disruption of satellites, telecommunications equipment on Earth, deterioration of radio wave propagation conditions, weather-dependent people suffer from headaches.
Observers, especially in high latitude regions, are advised to keep an eye on the sky and look for especially majestic auroral events in the coming days.
In addition, the Sun itself can still give out a new focus and burst into new outbursts. The same sunspot group that caused Wednesday's flares — scientists refer to it as Active Region 2673 — produced a moderate M-class flare on Tuesday that is also capable of generating auroras.
However, current events are far from the so-called Carrington event - the most powerful geomagnetic storm in the history of observations that erupted in 1859. From August 28 to September 2, numerous sunspots and flares were observed on the Sun. British astronomer Richard Carrington observed on September 1 the most powerful of them, which probably caused a large coronal mass ejection that reached the Earth in a record time of 18 hours. Unfortunately, at that time there were no modern devices, but the consequences were obvious to everyone even without it -
from intense auroras around the equator to sparkling telegraph wires.
Surprisingly, the current events are taking place against the background of a decrease in the level of solar activity, when the natural 11-year cycle is completed, when the number of sunspots decreases. However, many scientists remind that it is during the period of reduced activity that the most powerful outbreaks often occur, erupting as if in the end.
“The current events were accompanied by intense radio emission, which indicates possible coronal mass ejections,” said in an interview. Scientific American Rob Steenberg of the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). “However, we need to wait until we get additional coronograph images that capture this event. Then the final answer can be given.
Solar flare, photograph of the Hinode satellite. It is observed as two narrow, bright structures near the southern part of the sunspot.
Solar flare - an explosive process of energy release (light, thermal and kinetic) in. Flares in one way or another cover all layers of the solar atmosphere: the photosphere, chromosphere and corona of the Sun. It should be noted that solar flares and coronal mass ejections are different and independent phenomena of solar activity. The energy release of a powerful solar flare can reach 6 × 10 25 joules, which is about 1 ⁄ 6 of the energy released by the Sun per second, or 160 billion megatons of TNT, which, for comparison, is the approximate volume of world electricity consumption for 1 million years.
Description
The duration of the impulsive phase of solar flares usually does not exceed a few minutes, and the amount of energy released during this time can reach billions of megatons of TNT. The flash energy is traditionally determined in the visible range of electromagnetic waves by the product of the glow area in the hydrogen emission line H α , which characterizes the heating of the lower chromosphere, and the brightness of this glow, associated with the power of the source.
In recent years, a classification based on patrol homogeneous measurements on a series, mainly GOES, of the amplitude of a thermal X-ray burst in the energy range of 0.5-10 keV (with a wavelength of 0.5-8 angstroms) is also often used. The classification was proposed in 1970 by D. Baker and was originally based on the measurements of the Solrad satellites. According to this classification, a solar flare is assigned a score - a designation from a Latin letter and an index after it. The letter can be A, B, C, M, or X, depending on the magnitude of the X-ray intensity peak reached by the flare:
The index specifies the value of the flash intensity and can be from 1.0 to 9.9 for the letters A, B, C, M and more - for the letter X. For example, an outbreak on February 12, 2010 of M8.3 corresponds to a peak intensity of 8, 3×10 −5 W/m 2 . The most powerful (as of 2010) flare recorded since 1976, which occurred on November 4, 2003, was assigned the X28 score, so its peak X-ray intensity was 28 × 10 −4 W/m 2 . It should be noted that the registration of the X-ray radiation of the Sun, since it is completely absorbed by the atmosphere, has become possible since the first launch of Sputnik-2 with the appropriate equipment, therefore, data on the intensity of the X-ray emission of solar flares until 1957 are completely absent.
Measurements in different wavelength ranges reflect different processes in flares. Therefore, the correlation between the two indices of flare activity exists only in a statistical sense, so for individual events one index can be high and the other low, and vice versa.
Solar flares tend to occur at points of interaction between sunspots of opposite magnetic polarity, or more precisely near the magnetic neutral line that separates north and south polarity regions. The frequency and power of solar flares depend on the phase of the 11-year solar cycle.
Consequences
Solar flares are of applied importance, for example, in the study of the elemental composition of the surface of a celestial body with a rarefied atmosphere or in its absence, acting as an X-ray exciter for X-ray fluorescence spectrometers installed on board spacecraft.
Hard ultraviolet and X-ray flare radiation is the main factor responsible for the formation of the ionosphere, which can also significantly change the properties of the upper atmosphere: its density increases significantly, which leads to a rapid decrease in the height of the satellite orbit (up to a kilometer per day).
Plasma clouds ejected during flares lead to the occurrence of geomagnetic storms, which in a certain way affect technology and biological objects.
Forecasting
The modern forecast of solar flares is given on the basis of the analysis of the magnetic fields of the Sun. However, the magnetic structure of the Sun is so unstable that it is currently impossible to predict a flare even a week in advance. NASA gives a forecast for a very short period, from 1 to 3 days: on quiet days on the Sun, the probability of a strong flare is usually indicated in the range of 1-5%, and during active periods it increases only to 30-40%.
Recently, in various sources, there is more and more information about the "end of the world" and about possible disasters associated with natural phenomena, as well as man-made disasters. A huge amount of conflicting data introduces unprepared people into a stupor and leads to the fact that they try not to think about this topic at all and let everything pass by their ears. However, according to popular wisdom, the presence of smoke means that a fire is burning somewhere, and not paying attention to this would be sheer ignorance on our part. Let's consider one of the many phenomena, which, according to some assumptions and forecasts, can cause a large-scale catastrophe.
Flashes did not come into the field of view of people as early as 1859, then they caused malfunctions with telegraph lines. In addition, this event led to the fact that the northern lights could be seen in Hawaii. As you know, our luminary exists according to certain cycles - for eleven years, solar activity has a minimum value, and after that it increases significantly. Maximum outbreaks are observed just at the peak of activity. At that time The sun emits magnetic and radiation energy, as well as ultraviolet in very large quantities. They reach the Earth in just a few hours. Solar radiation must be stopped by our planet's magnetic field, which prevents it from causing significant damage, but due to its depletion, proper safety cannot be guaranteed.
So what specific consequences can they lead to and is it possible to protect yourself from them? This phenomenon can cause very large geomagnetic storms and a complete failure of the electrical network. This can lead not only to the impossibility of using electrical appliances, but also to a global catastrophe. If something like this happens, it will start with the fact that people can see a very bright glow of great intensity. After that, all transformers and power systems will stop working. Experts predict that in the US all key transformers will burn out in just 90 seconds, and more than 130 million people will be left without electricity.
At the beginning of the catastrophe, no one will die, but structures and systems on which the lives of a huge number of people directly depend will begin to collapse rather quickly. Oil and gas pipelines will stop working, water will not flow to settlements, gas stations will fail. Autonomous energy systems, which are in some institutions, are designed to function for three days. According to experts, several million people may die in a year, and their death will be associated with indirect reasons for stopping the economy.
But is it worth making such gloomy and hopeless predictions in connection with an event that may not happen? As experts say, such an electromagnetic storm is quite possible, and its manifestation is just a matter of time. According to Professor Daniel Baker, large-scale solar flares can lead to results that are comparable to the fall of a huge asteroid or a nuclear war. Even if an event like the one observed in 1859 occurs, modern people may not survive it. This is due to the current level of industrial development and the importance of transformers, which take a very long time to replace. As you can see, despite all the achievements of modern humanity, in a sense, it is now more vulnerable than 150 years ago. The development of various spheres of human activity makes people directly dependent on new inventions and technology, which is constantly being improved. This suggests that every achievement has a downside, and someday it may appear in all its glory.
As we know, not only excessive solar activity is now being actively discussed, but also the possibility of an asteroid falling, the melting of polar ice, the dangers of the large hadron collider, epidemics, floods, and much more. Some even talk about the uprising of machines and the invasion of representatives of extraterrestrial civilizations. On the other hand, there are reports in the literature and in the press that the time has come for the transformation of mankind, and that in order to survive, people must change spiritually and morally. Most often, such a transformation is associated with the possibilities of religions and esoteric movements. Despite the fact that many forecasts are not very optimistic, people are beginning to think about their place in the world and what they need to do in order to survive. Maybe changing enough people can prevent the catastrophe or make it less destructive. Each of us can only work on ourselves and hope for the best.