In short, in the primary market, rates will slightly increase at the beginning of the year, but then they will decrease, while none of the analysts predicts serious changes in 2017. Now, according to VTB 24, the average rate is at 12.73%. But almost half of the market is state support in new buildings at a rate below 12%, and the average rate on loans for secondary housing is at the level of 13.4-13.5%.
“After the cancellation of this program (mortgages with state support - approx. Compare.ru), the rate on loans for new buildings and finished housing will level out and stabilize at around 13%,” says Andrei Osipov, senior vice president of VTB 24.
The Agency for Housing Mortgage Lending believes that at the beginning of 2017 a slight increase in rates for the acquisition of housing under construction is possible, but it will be partially offset by joint shares of banks and developers. By the end of the year, rates may drop to 11-11.5%. “Already in 2018, mortgage rates will drop below 10%,” the AHML analytical center predicts.
So the head of the mortgage sales directorate of VTB Bank Georgy Ter-Aristokesyants sees the prerequisites for a slight decrease in rates next year. “At the base rates on mortgages, which are now slightly higher than rates on state support, it is still possible to decrease by 0.5-1 percentage points,” he says.
Why?
At the beginning of the year, a slight increase in mortgage rates for new buildings will be associated with the completion of the state program. It is worth noting here that the share of state support in January-August, according to the financial director of Deltacredit Bank Elena Kudlik, accounted for 35.8% of all issued mortgage loans and 38.3% of the volume. The program worked well, but it will be unnecessary to extend it, analysts say.
“The program of state subsidies in its current version lives at the level of the key rate above 9.5%, and now it is already 10%. I think there is a high probability that at the beginning of the first quarter of 2017 or even at the end of this year, the Bank of Russia will still do one more thing and reduce it to 9-9.5%, and then there will be no economic sense in extending the state program, since at a rate of 12.5%, the market does well on its own, ”says Andrey Osipov.
Moreover, it will not stay at this level of interest for a long time either - again, a decrease in the key rate, and hence the cost of funding for banks, and a reduction in inflation will do their good job. "As the Bank of Russia reaches the inflation target of 4%, mortgage rates will continue to decline," the AHML notes.
When to register?
There is no single piece of advice - as a rule, experts advise you to arrange a mortgage as soon as you need it, and not guess the moment. In addition, the real estate market cannot be guided only by the level of mortgage rates. Housing prices themselves play an important role here.
But in general, based on the short-term impact that the termination of state support will have, it is worth waiting out the first quarter of 2017. “At the moment, all the main players have already cut rates following a decrease in the cost of funding and a decrease in the key rate of the Central Bank. And there are no prerequisites for further rate cuts so far, so positive changes can be expected no earlier than the end of the first quarter of 2017, ”says Elena Kudlik.
Experts assure that next year the mortgage will greatly surprise us
The volume of mortgage lending in Russia at the end of the year will amount to about 1.5 trillion rubles, said the Minister of Construction and Housing and Communal Services of Russia Mikhail Men at the IV National Housing Congress "Housing and Urban Environment - a National Development Priority". His words are quoted by AGN “Moscow”: “Last year was a record for the number of new housing construction - more than 85 million square meters. m. And 2014 was not bad - about 83 million square meters. m. If we talk about mortgages, then in 10 years the volume of mortgages in the country has grown 22 times. Not a single branch of the national economy can boast of such results today. In 2014, it was a record year for the issuance of mortgage loans, our people took them for 1 trillion 760 billion rubles. Last year there was a slight drop to 1 trillion 100 billion rubles, and this year it is again growing by more than 30%: by the end of the year the figure will approach 1.5 trillion rubles. "
No mortgage overheating
The Bank of Russia does not yet see an overheating of the mortgage lending market, RIA Novosti reports with reference to the Deputy Chairman of the Central Bank Vasily Pozdyshev. The expert noted that the risks in the mortgage segment are quite acceptable, and the level of delinquency is low - about 1.7%.
As for mortgage rates, according to Ivan Bogatov, general director of Glavstroy Development, they are high: a double-digit figure is not what the market expects. The situation can be corrected by co-financing mortgage loans with securities. “Today the population has 33 trillion rubles on deposits, and this amount has grown by 10% over 10 months of this year,” Vedomosti quoted Bogatov as saying. - That is, even if we attract 3% of these funds through bonds, through securities, then we will cover the need for mortgages and loans for the entire construction business. Obviously, a mortgage with a reasonable rate is hardly possible at the current discount rate of the Central Bank. The situation can be changed by the Central Bank rate at the level of 7%, at which deposits from banks will become low, and the population will place funds in the AHML and other federal programs. This mechanism should work in all civilized markets, and I think it will work with us. "
Time of opportunity
According to forecasts of market experts, in 2017 we will just have a golden age of mortgages: both rates and down payment will decrease. According to RIA Novosti, the general director of the Agency for Housing Mortgage Lending Alexander Plutnik said at a recent press conference that in Russia in 2017 mortgage rates are expected to decrease. He also recalled that in the first nine months of 2016, despite the declining income of the population, the mortgage market showed an increase of 32%. “Now is the time of opportunities in the mortgage and real estate markets,” the agency quoted Alexander Plutnik as saying. "As soon as economic growth starts, we will see even more development."
At the end of 2016, about 1 million families in Russia will improve their living conditions with the help of mortgages. According to Alexander Plutnik, in 2017 we can safely expect a figure of 2 million families.
According to more cautious analytics of the AHML, more than 1 million mortgage loans worth 1.7-1.8 trillion rubles could be issued next year, according to BFM citing the agency. At the same time, mortgage rates will continue to decline: according to forecasts
AHML, by the end of next year they may reach the level of 11-11.5%, and in 2018 fall below 10%.
Also, AHML is thinking about the development of new market mechanisms that will not require budget funds. Among them is the issue of single-tranche mortgage bonds guaranteed by the AHML, in respect of which the Bank of Russia has recently reduced the risk ratio from 100% to 20%. “The fact that the Central Bank recently introduced a 20% risk weight on investments in securities guaranteed by the AHML will certainly have a serious stimulating role for the market development in general and will give a start to the development of the Mortgage Securities Factory program, the concept of which has already been adopted , - quotes BFM as the senior vice president of VTB Andrey Suchkov. “Therefore, we can count on the fact that as a result of the implementation of the Fabrika concept, the access of various banks, both large and small, to long-term financial resources will be leveled.” According to the expert, this will increase competition in the mortgage market and will become an incentive for increasing the availability of loans, reducing rates on them and developing the market as a whole.
As for the primary real estate market, a mortgage for a new building can be taken: according to Andrey Osipov, director of the mortgage lending department of VTB24 Bank, there will be no bankruptcies of large developers on the Russian housing market in 2017, contrary to rumors. Recall that, according to the Ministry of Construction, as of October 2016, 173 developers working under equity participation agreements were at the stage of bankruptcy. According to the RASK, at the end of August, 61 developers were in one of the stages of bankruptcy in Russia.
However, Andrei Osipov is sure that there is nothing to fear. “If they do suffer, it will be small companies, which will simply have a hard time finding leverage to cover cash gaps. I do not expect problems with respect to large developers, ”RIA Novosti quotes the expert as saying. He also added that large companies are positive about what is happening on the market: the problems of small developers allow large developers to increase the volume of construction and sales, and at the expense of volumes also offer a lower price to buyers.
Also, as reported by the agency Regnum, Mikhail Men does not exclude the possibility of reducing the level of the down payment on mortgages to 15% and below for certain categories of citizens. Men stressed that now, when the interest rate on mortgages has decreased, there is a 30% increase in the issuance of mortgage loans in the country. “But we understand that it is quite difficult for certain categories,” the agency quoted the minister as saying. He said that this issue in one form or another has been raised more than once, but the position of the Central Bank is quite tough and adamant: the down payment cannot be lowered, since this gives rise to the prospect of non-payment of the mortgage loan. However, there is still an opportunity to reduce the down payment to 15% and below - under the employer's guarantees, the minister suggested.
Banks have recorded an increase in the demand of citizens for preferential mortgages, which have a little more than two weeks left to "live". However, they note that the activity of potential borrowers could be even higher.
However, citizens can understand: everyone is waiting for a further decrease in the cost of mortgages next year. According to some forecasts, rates could fall as much as 10 percent. Is there really such a possibility and when this can happen, "Rossiyskaya Gazeta" asked the bankers themselves. At the same time, I found out how the size of a mortgage loan differs depending on the region and how much time borrowers usually spend on returning funds borrowed to solve the housing issue.
Be in time before the chimes
The weighted average rate on mortgages with state support for the purchase of housing in the primary market in October-November fell to 11.41 percent per annum. Potential borrowers did not fail to take advantage of this. Six of the nine banks surveyed by Rossiyskaya Gazeta among the largest players in the mortgage market reported that they had recorded an increase in the number of applications and the volume of loans issued.
"Many borrowers decided to" hedge "and apply for a mortgage with state subsidies in advance to have enough time to select a property and apply for a loan. Therefore, the peak of" primary demand "fell in August-September, - said Yulia Elsukova, Deputy Head of the Department of Retail Products and "After that, the number of new applications returned in October to a level slightly above the average annual level. But the number of transactions has been growing progressively since mid-November." Against the background of news about the non-extension of the state program, deferred demand is being implemented, explains Elsukova. Borrowers, who for some reason postponed the deal, nevertheless decided on a mortgage and came to the bank for a loan.
The largest banks will continue to issue preferential mortgages at the beginning of 2017, but only on applications approved by the end of December 2016
Andrey Morozov, head of the mass market and credit products department of Raiffeisenbank, adds that the real boom in demand for concessional mortgages occurred last year and the beginning of this year. The representative of "Deltacredit" Ilya Aleksandrov clarifies that the largest share of such mortgage loans was in February, when the state subsidy program ended, and it was not known whether it would be extended or not. “Half of the mortgages issued this month fell on loans with government subsidies,” he says.
Now we can say for sure that the preferential mortgage program will no longer be extended and will end, as planned, on December 31. The largest banks have already announced that they will continue to issue such loans at the beginning of next year, but only on applications that were approved in December this year.
The Ministry of Finance explained that the state-supported mortgage has played its role and no longer makes economic sense. Bankers themselves agree with this statement. “The state subsidy program in its current version lives with the key rate above 9.5 percent, and now it is already 10 percent,” recalls Andrey Osipov, senior vice president, director of the mortgage lending department at VTB24. “I think there is a high probability that at the beginning of the first quarter of 2017, the Bank of Russia will nevertheless make another move at the key rate and reduce it to 9-9.5 percent. Then there will certainly no longer be economic sense in extending the state program. "
What's next
The Agency for Housing Mortgage Lending (AHML) expects that next year mortgage rates of 10 percent per annum will appear.
But when exactly can this happen?
"Now mortgage rates have already dropped to the level of 2013-2014, when the market showed record issuances of such loans. We do not expect serious adjustments in the near future," says Georgy Ter-Aristokesyants, head of the mortgage sales department at VTB.
According to Andrei Osipov, after the cancellation of the preferential program, the rate on loans for new buildings and finished housing will level out and stabilize at around 13 percent.
The further situation will directly depend on the size of the key rate of the Central Bank and the cost of borrowing in the domestic market, remind in the Russian Agricultural Bank.
Oleg Korkin, deputy head of the Retail Business block of Vozrozhdenie Bank, believes that a rate cut can be expected in the second half of next year. "As a result, the volume of mortgage loans will continue to grow. It is possible that we will see new records," he says.
The head of AHML, Alexander Plutnik, also mentioned the records. According to his forecast, the issuance of mortgages in 2017 could grow to 1.7 trillion rubles.
Yulia Elsukova notes that the completion of the state subsidy program will be superimposed on the general seasonal drop in demand at the beginning of the year. But in the middle of the first quarter, demand has a chance to fully recover. “There are all the prerequisites for this,” Elsukova believes. “Firstly, mortgage rates are already close to pre-crisis values, and after the completion of the government subsidy program, banks will have to reduce them to maintain demand. Secondly, optimistic for the market. the scenario still assumes a key rate cut by the Bank of Russia, which will also have an impact on pricing. " It should also be borne in mind that this year the main players in the mortgage market have been actively developing alternative instruments to reduce the interest rate for the client. First of all, joint programs with developers, which provide for subsidizing part of the interest rate by developers during a grace period. "
Mortgage is a man's occupation
If we compare the current mortgage rates with the pre-crisis period, then women began to obtain mortgage loans 1.7 times less often. In 2014, the ratio of the number of loans issued by men and women was almost one to one, in the fall of this year - already one to two, according to the "Miel-network of real estate offices".
Analysts attribute this to the fact that in the context of an unstable economic situation, women are more cautious about attracting borrowed funds.
What kind of housing is most often bought with a mortgage
On average, the market share of loans for "secondary housing" is 60 percent, loans for apartments in new buildings - 40 percent. The market for finished housing is much larger than the "primary", and not all buyers are ready to buy housing under construction, many want to buy and immediately call in an apartment, experts explain.
The average amount of a mortgage loan ranges from 1.6 to 2.8 million rubles.
The average term of a mortgage loan is 15 years.
Infographics "RG" / Alexander Smirnov / Anton Perepletchikov / Yulia Krivoshapko
In 2017, mortgage terms will become much more affordable, which confirms the forecasts of officials. Economic recovery and stabilization of the financial system will make it possible to reduce the cost of credit resources. The resumption of pre-crisis lending rates will become the main driver of the real estate market development.
Optimistic dynamics
Mortgage lending has traditionally been the main growth driver for the real estate market. With the onset of the economic crisis, this instrument became less accessible - there was a significant increase in rates, which increased the cost of borrowed funds. In addition, financial institutions have raised the minimum down payment, which has become an additional barrier for those wishing to purchase their own home.
Negative expectations of the population became an additional factor that led to a collapse in the number of loans issued at the end of last year. In 2016, the mortgage lending market demonstrates stable positive trends. In the first four months, banking structures issued loans for 446.1 billion rubles. This indicator is 10% lower than the pre-crisis indicators of 2014, but is almost 1.5 times higher than the results of 2015.
An important factor for the recovery of lending volumes was the extension of the state program to the end of the year aimed at reducing mortgage rates. At the same time, the head of the Ministry of Economic Development Alexei Ulyukaev does not exclude the extension of this initiative for the next year. In 2017, Russians expect a significant improvement in mortgage conditions, they are confident in the Ministry of Finance. The head of the department, Anton Siluanov, believes that the rate reduction will occur regardless of the presence of a state support program. In turn, First Deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov is confident that mortgage rates will steadily decline to the level of 7-8%, which will be achieved in 2018.
Experts are not so optimistic about the situation. Despite some revival of the market, it will be very problematic to maintain the positive dynamics of lending without significant government support next year.
Doubtful prospects
The average rate in 2016 on ruble mortgages hovers around the 13% mark. According to experts, the revival of demand in 2017 is possible if the loan rate is within 10%, however, in the current environment, banks are not ready to take such measures.
The cost of a mortgage directly depends on the discount rate of the Central Bank. The latest news from the Central Bank gives hope for a subsequent reduction in the cost of mortgages in 2017. In June, the regulator decided to reduce the rate to 10.5%, which will allow credit institutions to reduce the cost of borrowed funds. However, further decline in the indicator will depend on the dynamics of the economic situation.
The Russian economy remains vulnerable to external factors. The rise in oil prices has become a key factor in the strengthening of the ruble. At the same time, the dynamics of the oil market remains unstable. As a result, experts do not exclude another stage of the price collapse. In such circumstances, it will be extremely difficult for the regulator to continue cutting the rate.
Representatives of the banking sector are doubtful about the forthcoming decrease in mortgage rates. Vice President of VTB 24 Bank Nina Kryuchkova emphasizes that the market situation remains uncertain and at the moment there are no significant grounds for revising rates.
Aleksey Novikov, representatives of Est-a-Tet, believes that the rate cut itself will not affect the market dynamics. Of no small importance is the value of real estate, which will increase in 2017. Reduced supply in the market will lead to an increase in house prices by 10%.
Another factor in the rise in real estate prices is the rise in prices for building materials. As a result, developers will carry over additional costs for the cost of square meters.
In addition, the financing of the state program directly depends on the balance of the budget, which already does not withstand the current level of spending. Further subsidizing of rates is possible only if there are no collapses in the oil market and economic growth is restored. Otherwise, the government may not find the resources to fund the program in 2017.
The government expects a gradual decrease in mortgage rates in 2017, even if the state support program is not extended. An improvement in the economic situation will lead to a reduction in the cost of credit resources, which will be reflected in the revival of demand for mortgages.
Experts doubt that under current conditions the rate will drop significantly below 13%. As a result, the influence of this factor on demand indicators will be minimal. At the same time, the increase in the cost of square meters due to the reduction in supply and the rise in prices for building materials will scare off potential customers.
The housing problem is still acute, and mortgages in 2017, as in previous years, will be the most affordable way for many to acquire their own housing. Yes, the overpayment and contributions that will last for many years are not encouraging, but this is a contribution to their own independence and a cozy family hearth. What are mortgage programs preparing for Russians next year? And will the mortgage with state support be extended in 2017?
Russian Finance Minister announced a reduction in mortgage rates
Anton Siluanov said that mortgage programs in 2017 will be cheaper, even in commercial banks. However, representatives of these financial and credit institutions are in no hurry to confirm the minister's optimistic forecast. Too much depends on mortgage rates. In particular, no one canceled such nuances as the main rate of the Central Bank of Russia, the purchasing power of the population, the level of income of potential customers, as well as the level. Therefore, they react to such a statement with skeptical caution, notifying that the rates, in comparison with this year, most likely will not decrease.
It is possible that the only exception will be a mortgage with state support in 2017. Young families, military, privileged categories of the population can get housing at an acceptable cost, provided that they register on time and provide a package of documents confirming the right to such a benefit. Bank representatives believe that even if there is a decrease in the interest rate on mortgage loans, costs may increase, for example, for home and borrower insurance. In addition, related services (appraiser and notary) will also rise in price.
Mortgage 2017: forecasts of the owners of real estate agencies
Those who work with real estate believe that mortgage rates will not go down in 2017. But mortgages can get cheaper by lowering the cost of the home itself. However, opinions are divided. Some realtors argue that a drop in prices is inevitable, while others advocate a rise. The first ones argue their opinion by the fact that the housing market is oversaturated, so the supply will exceed demand. The second believe that prices will slowly creep up due to the increase in the number of emigrants.
Both opinions have the right to life, but the forecasts for the mortgage-2017 in the end turn out to be too diverse. In addition, what will be in great demand - apartments in new buildings or housing in the secondary market - is completely impossible to give a forecast. It all depends on the buyer's lifestyle, the location of the property, at what stage the construction site is, if the choice fell on housing "from scratch" and so on.
Will something change for preferential categories?
No changes are expected in this compartment of mortgage programs. Forecasts for mortgages in 2017, even preferential ones, are not much different from those announced a year ago. The list of documents that must be provided has not changed, it still includes:
- Personal documents of those who apply for a preferential mortgage.
- Individual tax numbers.
- Certificates proving the right to receive benefits.
- Willingness to pay the down payment.
- Ability to provide additional documents that may be required by a panel to review such issues.
The queue advances as free living space appears on the balance sheet of the city administration. The latest mortgage news in 2017 states that the requirements for preferential borrowers may become stricter than in the current one.
Real percentage of overpayment
Although there are fierce disputes between the government and banks, none of them can yet predict how much interest the mortgage will be in 2017. However, some Russian banks have already provided an approximate list of nuances for those who want to buy housing on credit and belong to preferential categories:
- Not all banks will sell apartments in new buildings, but only a few of them. In general, only a certain list of banks is involved in the preferential program.
- Loan term - from 12 months to 30 years.
- The minimum initial bid may disappoint some potential clients and make it impossible for them to purchase a home next year. It will be 20% of the cost of housing, while this year and last year the threshold was 10%.
- Mortgage programs offer lending only in national currency and at 11.5% per annum. But it should be remembered that this is only an estimated mortgage interest in 2017.
- Mortgage loans are exclusively secured. The pledge can be both the purchased housing and the one already owned by the borrower at the time of purchase.
- Each city has its own threshold for the maximum cost of housing.
- The health and life insurance of the borrower, as well as the mortgage housing, is mandatory.
In addition to the reduced interest rate, the government assumes the payment of all banking fees, and in some cases, the repayment of some part of the loan. There will be no reduction in mortgage rates in 2017 as such.
So is it worth taking out a mortgage in 2017?
If the housing conditions are very difficult and there is no hope of obtaining a preferential mortgage, for example, a military mortgage, which will also be indexed in 2017, it is worth registering your own housing on credit. If the interest rate rises under the pressure of increased demand, the rental price will also rise. So is it worth giving money for other people's walls, which will never become family, if you can eventually buy your own home, paying almost the same amount every month? But in the end, it is up to everyone to decide for themselves whether or not to take out a mortgage in 2017.