The exchange rate again and again attracts public attention for the reason that even the most prominent experts cannot unequivocally tell what will happen to the ruble, for example, until the end of 2016. However, some analysts still decide on forecasts. The Bank of Russia lowered the official rates of major world currencies for the weekend and Monday, December 12. The dollar fell by 8 kopecks - to 63.30 rubles, the euro fell by 1.03 rubles - to 67.20 rubles. If you look at tomorrow, December 13, here the regulator has significantly lowered the official rates of foreign currencies. In particular, the dollar sank by 1.72 rubles, amounting to 61.58 rubles, while the euro fell by 2.14 rubles, reaching 65.07 rubles. Regarding the situation on the Moscow Stock Exchange, we can state the following: the ruble has been strengthening during the day in the most noticeable way over the past few days. As of 16:25 Moscow time, the US currency sank by 1.34 rubles, and the European by 1.20 rubles. By this time, the dollar was worth 61.15 rubles, while the euro was 64.85 rubles. Oil quotes, to which increased attention from the specialized public is riveted, are now constantly growing. So, according to the data at 16:30 Moscow time today, December 12, "black gold" of the Brent brand in its value was 56.34 dollars.
Dollar exchange rate: expert forecast for December 2016
The Russian currency is currently growing steadily against the backdrop of significantly rising oil prices. In particular, futures for Brent oil reached record levels when compared with the data that is relevant for the last year. The growth of "black gold" was due to the signing of an agreement between OPEC countries and non-cartel states to reduce production. Experts believe that against this background, in the first half of the week, the ruble has every chance to strengthen by 1-2 rubles against world currencies. But in the second half of the week "the ball will rule" the dollar. However, do not forget that in the middle of the week there will be a meeting of the US Federal Reserve, which, as most analysts have no doubt, will decide to raise the rate. In this case, investors will redirect assets to the American market, taking them from developing ones, including the Russian one. This in turn will strengthen the dollar. However, no one dares to say how much the American will get stronger - the fact is that part of these expectations about the Fed's rate hike has already been won back by the market. At the moment, analysts mostly agree that the Fed will still raise the rate, which, accordingly, will make the dollar more attractive for investments, and investors will turn their eyes to the US market, turning away from emerging markets, including Russia.
Hello, dear blog guests, today I decided to tell you about the latest dollar exchange rate forecast for December 2016. As always, experts have different points of view, but they all agree on one thing: the ruble exchange rate in December depends on the behavior of the price of black gold.
At the moment, the dollar is worth 65 rubles. Some experts say that in December the ruble will strengthen, while others will become cheaper. But due to the fact that the ruble has been slowly depreciating over the past 2 weeks, we can say with confidence that this trend will continue in the future. Many experts say that November and December are the last months of calm, when the ruble will gradually become cheaper.
Surprising is the fact that at the moment there is an increase in the cost of oil on the market, which, in turn, should stop the depreciation of the ruble. Raiffeisenbank experts are confident that the ruble will not strengthen due to the sale of the state-owned stake in Rosneft. Such a development is only possible if the company itself buys back its shares. As a result, there will be a shortage of foreign exchange liquidity, which will lead to a depreciation of the ruble.
Dollar exchange rate forecast for December 2016
Experts assure that in December the dollar/ruble pair will experience short-term fluctuations. The head of Rosneft, Igor Sechin, said that privatization would not affect the foreign exchange market.
Another factor that can lead to destabilization in the market is an increase in geopolitical tensions. Instead of lifting existing sanctions, the US and EU countries are planning to introduce new sanctions. New sanctions will arise as a result of the conflict in Syria. Another factor that will not allow the currency to strengthen is the unresolved conflict in Ukraine.
Experts are confident that the gradual weakening of the ruble only has a positive effect on the state's economy. As a result of the depreciation of the currency, the country reduces the budget deficit, and Russian entrepreneurs gain a competitive advantage.
In general, almost all dollar exchange rate forecasts for December 2016 are pessimistic. The price of the American currency in the last month of the year will fluctuate in the range of 62-68 rubles.
This forecast of the dollar exchange rate for December 2017 will come true only if the price of oil does not fall to 30. Until November 15, the cost of black gold only increased to 45.42 dollars per barrel.
If the cost of black gold reaches 50, then the ruble may reach 62. At the moment, the increase in the cost of oil is the result of the efforts of the OPEC countries, which are aimed at reducing production. Today, Qatar, Venezuela and Algeria are looking for ways to resolve the contradictions between the major oil-producing countries. Earlier, the Minister of Economy of Saudi Arabia called on all OPEC members to come to a common denominator in order to reduce oil production. The next meeting of the cartel is scheduled for November 30, 2016.
Fresh euro exchange rate forecast for December 2016
The EU is still unstable. The Eurozone countries are still unable to cope with the consequences of Brexit. The euro/dollar pair continues the downtrend, which will last until the end of 2016.
Forecasts of the euro exchange rate for December 2016 are similar in that the depreciation trend for the euro will continue this month. At the moment, the EU has a large number of problems, including emigrants. To improve the current situation, the ECB left a record low interest rate, and also left the quantitative easing program in operation.
At the moment, European countries are not going through the best of times. Inflation for the current year is 0.2%, which is 10 times lower than the target value - two percent. GDP growth in the next three years will remain at the level of 1.6%, which also scares many experts. The threat of deflation encourages the ECB to continue measures to improve the economy. The discount rate of the bank remains at a low level, but the rate on deposits is minus 4%. The negative value of the rate negatively affects the banking sector, as a result of which many credit institutions are not in the most advantageous position. Deutsche Bank is also in a deplorable state, and this is already a threat to the entire stability of the system. Seasoned experts say huge sums of money may soon be required to support the financial sector, which will negatively affect the economy.
The EU is also suffering because of the British exit, as well as because of the huge number of emigrants, which only exacerbates the differences between EU members. Experts assure that after the final withdrawal of the UK from the EU, trade volumes will sharply decrease. This development threatens the continued existence of the European Union, which, of course, affects the mood of depositors.
The latest euro exchange rate forecast for December 2016 says that the euro will continue to depreciate in the future. According to APEKON, in December the euro will cost 64-68 rubles. If the price of oil rises in the future, then the price of the euro in December could reach 64 rubles.
Despite numerous attempts by APEKON to cut oil production, there is still a lot of black gold on the market. In addition, the agreement reached earlier between the major oil-producing countries is under great threat due to the position of Iran and Iraq. Experienced analysts do not exclude another collapse in oil prices, which, of course, will deal a blow to the Russian economy and lead to a depreciation of the national currency.
In December 2016, the euro exchange rate against all world currencies will decrease. But what will happen to our currency at the end of the year depends on the further cost of oil. The latest forecast of the euro exchange rate for December 2016 says that in December the euro will cost 62-68 rubles.
This article is for informational purposes only and is not a guide to action.
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The Bank of Russia lowered the official rates of major world currencies on Thursday, December 15. The dollar fell by 26 kopecks to 60.80 rubles, the euro fell by 22 kopecks to 64.75 rubles.
The cost of the dual-currency basket (0.55 dollars and 0.45 euros) on Thursday is 62.5838 rubles.
Meanwhile, world oil prices started the day with growth. This is evidenced by the data of electronic trading as of 7.33 Thursday.
Thus, on the New York Mercantile Exchange, futures for WTI crude oil for January delivery rose by 0.02% to $52.1 per barrel. February futures for Brent crude on the London ICE Futures exchange rose 0.22% to $54.02 per barrel.
Dollar and euro exchange rate forecast, expert opinions:
On Thursday evening, the most anticipated event in the financial market took place - the US Federal Reserve decided to raise the base rate to 0.5-0.75%. Today, the markets will sum up the results of the Fed meeting, and as they realize what happened, the dollar will begin to strengthen against all currencies, including the ruble. However, experts reassure that this decision has already been laid down by the markets and will not lead to sharp fluctuations in exchange rates.
Not everything is rosy in the commodity segment either. After the decision of OPEC and oil-exporting countries that are not members of the cartel, which led to an increase in prices for "black gold", the shale industry in the United States began to "raise its head". Against this backdrop, the market begins to react sharply to US data on the growth in the number of drilling rigs, which are traditionally presented on Fridays by the oilfield services company Baker Hughes. If the data this week show growth, this will put pressure on Brent and, accordingly, have a negative impact on the ruble at the beginning of next week.
Experts polled believe that the Russian currency currently looks overvalued, both against the background of the dynamics of similar currencies, and in relation to the level of oil prices. There may be several reasons for this: the conversion of the currency received during the privatization of Rosneft, the traditional December demand for currency among the population, and the preparation of exporters for the December tax period. Against this background, experts predict that the ruble will periodically make attempts to grow in the coming week, however, in general, the range of trading will take place at the levels of 61.5-62.50 rubles per dollar.
In December 2016, the Russian currency will continue to strengthen, which confirms the optimistic forecast of the ruble exchange rate, and will reach 60-61 RUB / $1 - such prospects arose as a result of an increase in oil prices, which helped the ruble regain lost ground, experts believe.
At the same time, they allow the value of the ruble to fall to 70 RUB/$1 if "black gold" becomes cheaper.
World oil prices continued to rise on Tuesday afternoon, thanks to expectations of a reduction in production from the US shale sector and renewed optimism regarding the implementation of the OPEC agreement to limit production.
Strengthening Course
External factors are quite optimistic for the Russian economy, and the availability of reserves helps to resolve the issue of the budget deficit, experts say.
In particular, oil quotes reached their maximum values this year, which is associated with the expected reduction in oil production, and exporters for the first time in a long period of time were able to overcome existing contradictions and agree on conditions for stabilizing the level of raw material production, APEKON experts say.
At the same time, analysts believe that much will depend on the dynamics of oil prices, and if "black gold" becomes cheaper, the value of the ruble will drop to 70RUB/$1.
Due to moderate devaluation, the government will be able to reduce the budget deficit, and domestic exporters will strengthen their positions in international markets.
As a result, they do not exclude a new period of volatility (a statistic that characterizes price volatility over a certain period of time) in the foreign exchange market.
Representatives of the banking sector are also optimistic about the prospects of the ruble. They believe that the peak of the crisis is over, excludes new shocks for the Russian currency, and believe that the currency market participants have managed to adapt to new realities.
Is the fall inevitable?
By the New Year, the Russian currency is expected to weaken - the ruble exchange rate will be affected by the peak of payments on external debts in December, as well as the annual wave of ruble payments from the budget, says Yakov Mirkin, head of the international capital markets department at the Institute of World Economy and International Relations of the Russian Academy of Sciences.
The expert believes that the ruble is now overvalued and too heavy, so it would be better for him to become a little more than 70 rubles per dollar, and prices have already adapted to this.
In his opinion, the level of 62-64 rubles is a return to the gap accumulated over the years between the real and nominal effective rates of the ruble, and by the end of the year "too many interested parties are accumulating for the ruble to weaken."
The sale of the state-owned stake in Rosneft may hinder the strengthening of the ruble, analysts at Raiffeisenbank believe. This scenario will become possible if the company buys back its own shares on its own. As a result, there will be a shortage of foreign exchange liquidity, which will lead to a weakening of the ruble. However, fluctuations in the foreign exchange market will be observed only in the short term, analysts emphasize. In turn, the head of Rosneft, Igor Sechin, excludes the impact of privatization on the foreign exchange market.
Another factor that can destabilize the foreign exchange market is the growth of geopolitical tensions, experts say. Instead of the expected lifting of sanctions, the United States and EU representatives are considering the possibility of introducing additional restrictions against the Russian Federation. The new sanctions of the West are connected with the development of events in Syria. An additional factor of uncertainty remains the development of the conflict in eastern Ukraine.
A moderate weakening of the ruble could have positive consequences for the economy, experts emphasize. As a result, the government will be able to reduce the budget deficit, and Russian companies will gain an additional competitive advantage.
To be or not to be
In general, forecasts for December cannot be called pessimistic. Most experts believe that the rate of the Russian currency will no longer be in a fever, and it will gain a foothold in the range between 60 and 70 rubles per dollar. Naturally, these forecasts are realistic in the event that oil does not fall in price to $30 per barrel by December.
As of November 15, the cost of January futures for Brent North Sea crude oil rose by 2.21% to $45.42 per barrel. The price of December futures for WTI crude oil increased by 2.65% to $44.47 per barrel.
The subsequent rise in oil prices above $50 per barrel will allow the ruble to strengthen to 60-62 RUB/$1.
At this stage, the rise in oil prices is facilitated by the "diplomatic efforts" of the OPEC countries, which they are making to conclude a deal to reduce oil production. Qatar, Algeria and Venezuela are seeking to resolve the differences between the group's largest producers.
Saudi Minister of Energy, Industry and Mineral Resources Khalid al-Falih earlier called on OPEC members to reach a consensus to implement the agreements reached in Algeria at the end of September to limit production.
The material was prepared on the basis of open sources.
The Eurozone continues to be in a fever - in addition to the threat of deflation and low economic growth, the EU countries are trying to overcome the consequences of Brexit. In addition, one of the key problems remains the placement of migrants.
To stimulate the economy, the ECB has maintained a record low level of the discount rate and left the quantitative easing program in place. However, the position of the euro in the short term remains vulnerable.
European problems
The eurozone countries are facing significant challenges. Despite the expansion of the quantitative easing policy, inflation in 2016 is expected to reach 0.2%, which is ten times less than the target value of 2%. GDP growth in the next three years will remain at the level of 1.6-1.7%, which also causes analysts' concerns. The threat of deflation forces the European Central Bank to continue measures to stimulate the economy.
The ECB discount rate remains at a minimum level of 0%, while the deposit rate is minus 4%. In addition, the quantitative easing program continues to operate until March next year.
The negative rate indicator puts pressure on the banking sector. As a result, many credit institutions faced financial difficulties. Deutsche Bank was also under attack, which threatens the stability of the entire system. Already in the short term, huge resources may be required to support the financial sector, which will affect the rate of economic growth.
In addition to the economy, the problems of the eurozone are related to the UK's exit from the EU and the migration crisis. The EU countries cannot agree on the conditions for the placement of migrants, which increases the contradictions between EU members. Analysts also predict significant losses in trading volumes after the final release of Foggy Albion. In such circumstances, the continued existence of the European Union was threatened, which is reflected in the mood of investors.
As a result, the positions of the European currency came under pressure, which is reflected in the euro exchange rate forecast for December 2016. At the same time, much will depend on the oil market and the indicators of the Russian budget.
exchange rate dynamics
APEKON representatives predict further weakening of the euro before the end of the year. As a result, currency quotes will reach 64-66 rubles/euro. The Russian currency will continue to recover lost positions against the backdrop of rising oil prices. Problems with filling the budget may prevent the strengthening of the ruble. In addition, experts do not exclude a new collapse in prices on the "black gold" market.
Significant social and defense spending is forcing the government to increase the budget deficit. Despite the cut indexation of pensions, officials failed to meet the target deficit of 3%.
The growing deficit increases the burden on the Reserve Fund. As a result, the existing reserves will be exhausted at the beginning of next year, the Ministry of Finance predicts. An additional source of financing is domestic borrowing, but it is very problematic to completely solve the problem of the budget deficit using this tool. In addition, the debt burden on the regions is increasing, which can lead to local defaults.
A proven way to solve the problem of the budget deficit is a moderate weakening of the ruble. As a result, the authorities will be able to accumulate additional ruble liquidity, which is necessary to finance the expenditure side. Budget revenues from energy exports will also increase. According to experts' forecasts, the government may weaken the Russian currency to 70-73 rubles / euro, which will help in solving the budget issue.
More significant fluctuations in currency quotes will become a reality if there is another decline in prices on the oil market. Despite attempts by exporters to stabilize oil production, the market for "black gold" remains excessive production of raw materials. In addition, the preliminary agreement of the OPEC countries is under threat, given the position of Iraq and Iran and the reluctance of major suppliers to reduce the level of oil production.
Under such conditions, experts do not exclude a new collapse in oil prices, which will strike at the positions of the Russian currency. Reducing the cost of "black gold" to 30 dollars per barrel. will result in the devaluation of the ruble to 80-85 rubles/euro.
The forecast for the euro in December 2016 depends on the trends in the oil market, the state of the budget and the dynamics of the eurozone economy. The optimistic scenario assumes the strengthening of the ruble to 64-66 rubles/euro. Under the baseline scenario, the government may depreciate the ruble to 70-73 rubles/euro, which will help solve the problem of financing the budget deficit. If the cost of "black gold" falls to 30 dollars per barrel, then the euro exchange rate will return to the range of 80-85 rubles per euro.