Giving a forecast for the development of the operational situation on the territory of the Syrian Arab Republic is an extremely thankless task. And that's why.

Usually, when a commander makes an analysis of the situation, he proceeds from the balance of forces and means, tasks for the future and the current capabilities of his troops and the enemy, terrain, supply capabilities and a bunch of everything else. However, in Syria, in the near future, tasks for the military will be set by politicians (and, as a rule, not by Syrian politicians). And decisions will be made largely based on the FOREIGN POLICY situation around Syria.

And this foreign policy situation will be determined by many factors, of which the determining ones will be:

The position of the new US administration on the whole spectrum of relations with the Russian Federation,

Turkish-Russian relations as a way to influence relations between the Russian Federation and the EU,

Economic and political situation in the Russian Federation...

THIS IS ONLY A PART OF THE FACTORS, THERE ARE REALLY A LOT OF THEM, and some that seem insignificant now may turn out to be very significant in a few months..

Now - about the PROBABLE immediate actions of the SAR/allies.

1. They will recapture Palmyra. They will begin to attack only after the weather has settled and a group has been created.

Why is this critical and important?

A severe energy crisis is developing in Syria: after the ISIS seized oil fields near Palmyra and, especially, the Hayan oil refinery, the country’s government was forced to increase, by 40 percent, purchases of petroleum products abroad, and electricity is now supplied intermittently to many areas.

Depending on the group created, the offensive can be carried out on a wide front - from Akerbat to Karyaten (which is most desirable, because it will deprive the black terrorists of the opportunity to maneuver their forces), or in a narrow wedge to the right and left from the Homs, Palmyra highway. Liberation of Palmyra - no later than March 2017.

2. They will complete the operation in Wadi Barada.

In Damascus, 5 million residents have been without water for two weeks. This can be dealt with for some time, but clearing the water intake in the Barada Valley is the most important task.

The cleansing of green or pacified enclaves around Damascus will continue.

Eastern Ghouta will either freeze (and slowly pacify in the direction of green buses - at least in six months), or the Ahrars will begin to fight, and they will be cleared out in the same six months.

They will definitely take Yarmouk.

3. The Syrian Armed Forces/allies must begin an operation in the eastern part of the province. Aleppo. This will stop the Turks from moving south by switching their forces to the Kurds. But what we agreed on with Erdogan is a big deal, and everything depends on that.

4. Deir ez-Zor will be defended; I don’t see the forces and means to unblock it in the near future.

5. The “reconciled” groups include those groups that recently actively fought in Northern Hama and west of the Homs, Khanaser, Aleppo highway. If they really sit straight on their butts, they won’t touch them; if not, then these areas will be cleared out.

6. The Idlib region will turn into a “goblin reserve.” The black-greens will be given the opportunity to decide whether they are for the blacks or for the greens (I bet on the former).

At this time - until March 2017 - I do not expect active offensive actions by the SAA in this area.

Let the spiders in the jar sort each other out first. But you also need to keep your ears sharp - to stop the attempts of the losing spiders to migrate from the common bank.

I really want to hope that 5 AK SAA will not be used in combat at least until the end of March 2017. It takes time to form and coordinate. But there is less and less hope for this, alas...

P.S. This forecast is not from the Lord God, and not even from his deputy for operational work. Therefore, somewhere it will definitely be different.

But in general it’s something like this. In any case, the Syrian troops have seized the initiative, and we expect them to advance...

Humanity learned the basics of predicting fate and the future based on the position of the heavenly bodies decades ago, because history contains examples that even the ancient Greeks had the ability to draw up their own individual horoscope for the near future. However, today not only astrologers, but also people with supernatural abilities are able to make predictions about the future, and it must be said that today they deserve special attentionfor 2017,after all, events in this country have been attracting public attention for several years now, and so far the end of the conflict is not in sight.

The conflict on the territory of a Muslim state has been going on for quite a long time and, frankly speaking, the last few years have only worsened the situation; moreover, today Russia is also taking part in the conflict, which, together with the Syrian government, is trying to suppress the rebels and end the war. However, it is necessary to separately emphasize the data regarding the fact that no one succeeds in this matter (even representatives of the UN), because if you believe the news, then hundreds of people die on the territory of the state every week, and this is evidenced exclusively by official sources.

which worries many, is going through difficult times, and the UN believes that a prerequisite for the development of this problem can be considered a religious conflict between two Syrian “castes” - Alawites and Sunnis. Many Syrians consider this opinion to be incorrect, but it must be said that the reasons for the development of such a conflict existed for a very long time, the authorities simply did not pay attention to them for a very long time, and the result was a conflict that flared up in the country.

What do clairvoyants say?

First of all, it is necessary to discuss the information received from a clairvoyant from Bulgaria (it’s not at all difficult to remember her name, because Vanga, despite the fact that she died quite a long time ago, earned a certain popularity in her time), because she was one of the first to make a prediction that , that the world is in for a troubled time filled with waves and death, and the source of all this will be discovered in the east. Considering that Vanga made rather ambiguous forecasts, no one could decipher for a long time what she meant by the phrase that problems would begin in the east, but when the war began among the Syrians, everything fell into place. Moreover, some even argue that they know how the war will end - the country will be defeated, so the words that Syria will fall in 2017can be considered quite truthful.

Clairvoyants agree that the fall of Syria will be the first alarm bell for the whole world, because from now on everyone will be in danger. Moreover, no one is talking about who will win the country. Special attention should be paid to the information that today millions of experts are pondering what Vanga’s prophecy means, but it must be said that she knew how to confuse everyone with her predictions and most of them were deciphered only after they had already come true. According to official sources of information, the fortuneteller never liked to communicate with representatives of the press, but shortly before the date of her death, she made a statement that the fall of the whole world would begin with Syria, although it was previously considered “paradise.” There is a way out of this situation, and in order topsychic forecast for Syria for 2017not justified, you just need to follow the earthly commandments and live according to the rules, then the Almighty simply will not allow the agony of war to take over the whole world and protect all people.

What will happen to Syria?

Frankly speaking, d It is quite difficult to give 100% correct information about what awaits Syria, because today it is quite difficult to find a truly strong clairvoyant, and not just a popular psychic who took part in some show and made a popular page on a social network. It is necessary to emphasize what its biblical prophets said about the fall of Syria, who knew that Damascus would be considered just a heap of ruins, and to say that they were wrong is impossible, because the latest news is definite proof that there are more There are no complete buildings.

At one time, he even gave a forecast for this country, and although there was nothing precise about , his words were not known, the exception was that he confirmed the words of other clairvoyants that the conflict would begin in the east, nothing good awaits the Syrians in the near future. Moreover, a conflict on the territory of a given state may escalate into. And that is why not only the Syrians themselves, but also residents of other states should be interested in its resolution today. In any case, Syria is an arena of confrontation between two strong states, Russia and the United States, and this is no longer a secret to anyone, which means they should begin to resolve the conflict.

Astrological “Syrian” forecast

It is worth discussing separately, which must be said have already repeatedly predicted a tragic fate for this state. What astrologers saw most in the position of the luminaries was that a “black man” would come into the world, who would become a ruler, and military operations would begin in the east (most likely, this was the Syrian conflict).

The most popular astrologer of our time, Pavel Globa, believes that the world as a whole will expect a huge number of conflicts in 2017, and the reason for all this will be the fact that the most militant planet in the sky - Uranus - is in the constellation Aries, and this may be evidence that It is not worth resolving conflicts calmly and appealing to the calm of the warring parties, because no one will listen to common sense, following solely their own desires.

It is quite difficult to summarize the information described above, because the forecasts of psychics, astrologers and clairvoyants are not uniform, and each of them thinks in his own way. The war continues and there is a possibility that its end is not expected in 2017, although everything can change, therefore it is not worth considering that the predictions of people with superpowers are the truth, there is always the possibility of error.

The editors of the Financial Times give their forecast for 2017 on the most pressing issues of the modern world - Brexit, the situation in Syria, ISIS and oil prices.

The editors of the publication note that “they were right more often than they were wrong about 2016 - at least superficially.” “Of the 16 predictions we made, 9 or 10 came true (depending on whether the popularity of Pokémon Go is considered a sign that 2016 was the “year of the beginning of virtual reality,” the Financial Times journalists point out. “However, we were mistaken in a big way. The UK did not vote for It's that Hillary Clinton didn't win to stay in the EU that matters most.

Anyone who believes that unexpected seismic upheavals, rather than stable trends, matter to history has received convincing confirmation of their views in 2016. Therefore, readers may treat our forecasts for 2017 with disdain."

"Those who trust forecasts but think FT just can't do them can (for the first time) try to do a better job on their own. Select answers to the 20 questions below, plus a bonus question, and provide your real name and email address. mail. The winner will take an important place in the article with forecasts for the next year, 2018," the article says.

We offer answers from the Financial Times editors to the most pressing questions asked.

Robert Armstrong: "Will Article 50 (of the EU Constitution) be triggered before the end of the first quarter?" (Brexit launch)

Answer: "Yes. The pressure on Prime Minister Theresa May from supporters of active measures for the UK's exit from the EU is reaching a critical point. All the British government's plans for Brexit are based on the fact that the letter on Article 50 will be sent by the end of March. Postponement could be triggered by external events - such as the Supreme Court ruling in the Article 50 trial in January, or the politics of the House of Lords. However, absent a crisis, Brexit supporters' Christmas wish will come true very soon."

Roula Khalaf: “Will Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin make a deal on Syria?”

Answer: “Yes. However, it will not be worth the paper on which its terms are written down. Since the Syrian government captured Aleppo, Trump was left without any tools to influence Moscow - even if he was going to use them. Trump's goal is to attack ISIS (an organization banned in RF. - Ed.), and he will do it. In the first days of his presidency, he will make a deal with Putin on a joint offensive against the terrorist group. Trump will continue to burn on Twitter."

Edward Loos: "Will President Trump Build a Wall on the Mexico Border?"

Answer: “Yes - but only a small one. President Trump has been making so much noise about barricading the 2,000-mile border that he will have to do something. However, lately he has turned promises of “impenetrable, physical, tall, powerful, a beautiful wall on the southern border" into talk of a fence. So expect some symbolic additions on the border, which is already about a third blocked by some sort of barrier."

Jude Webber: "Will ISIS be destroyed as a major global power?"

Answer: No. The self-proclaimed caliphate of the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria will collapse in 2017. However, once it is pushed out of the urban strongholds of Mosul and then Raqqa, it will begin to combine local uprisings with international terrorist attacks.

Likewise, al-Qaeda managed to regroup in the Syrian desert after nearly being wiped out in Iraq in 2007-2009. Five years later, she burst into our lives again as ISIS. ISIS can count on external forces to act as its recruiting assistants: the pro-Shiite regimes in Damascus, Baghdad and Beirut will ensure that Sunni alienation will not go away. We'll still be talking about ISIS in 2018."

Robert Armstrong: "Will the price of oil exceed $50?"

Answer: "Yes. In 2016, record levels of OPEC production and uninterrupted supplies from outside the cartel put pressure on oil prices. A production cut deal reached by major producers led to oil becoming more expensive at the end of the year. 2017 prices depend on whether the countries that signed it will fulfill the terms of the deal - and on the level of offshore production in the United States.

Oil officials remain adamant that oil prices are too low to encourage investment. Expect the industry to remain calm and prices to rise."

In the history of mankind, there have been cases of successful prediction of the future since the distant times of ancient states. And in the modern world, psychics do similar things, forming a large number of prophecies. Thus, the content of the astrologers’ forecast for Syria for 2018 is in great demand in our time due to the current confrontation on the territory of this country. The Syrian authorities are engaged in a confrontation with terrorist groups, but first of all, it is worth noting the participation of the Russian Federation in this war. The outcome of the events under consideration will determine the future fate of our planet.

The confrontation continues for years and over time the situation does not get better; this war also affects our native fatherland. Russian forces, together with the local authorities, are striving to defeat concentrations of criminal elements in the Syrian state and thus end the hostilities. But despite the support of the United States and other countries, it is impossible to neutralize the enemy and thereby end the ongoing bloodshed, information about which is constantly present in the verified media.

Today is not the best period for Syria - the forecast of events for 2018 for this reason occupies the minds of many people. If you believe information from the UN, then the trigger for military battles was the struggle between Sunnis and Shiites, two branches of the Muslim faith. Sunnis adhere to the conventional religion, while the other movement tends to be orthodox. The period of such confrontation dates back more than one century and a large number of hostilities.

Now a new wave of clashes has started, moreover, with the involvement of gangster groups and political interests. It should also be noted that the Syrian government ignored ISIS - officials simply considered it another large-scale terrorist formation. But, as you know, adherents of the formed organization created a country by taking part of the lands of neighboring powers.

What do the soothsayers say about current issues?

Those who want to be aware of the psychics' forecast for Syria for 2018, first heed the predictions of the popular Bulgarian Vanga. At one time, she gained some fame thanks to the implementation of her own forecasts. This clairvoyant has been gone for a long time, but she was one of the first people who was able to predict difficult trials for our planet and the origins of troubles in the eastern part of the world. Due to the famous blind woman's lack of education, her predictions were difficult to interpret correctly. However, the armed conflicts that have come into the modern history of mankind have become clear evidence of the veracity of the predictions.

And it is also worth noting that a large number of Bulgarians who solve the omens say that Syria will fall in 2018. Many people consider this statement from the decipherers to be a wake-up call for the entire planet. Our world risks becoming insecure given the adversaries of the Syrian state. ISIS will gain greater power and it is not a fact that it will want to be content with the previously captured territories and build diplomatic relations with other countries.

In addition, it is unlikely that terrorists will work quietly and peacefully for the benefit of their native state, and not continue their “military work.” And finally, all interested people are horrified by the Bulgarian’s prediction about the destruction of life on the planet after the collapse of Syria. But Vanga believed that if humanity took the path of serving God’s commandments, it would be possible to avoid the further development of hostilities.

Taking into account the interpretation of the promises of the popular Bulgarian, it is not easy to say unequivocally about the future fate of the Syrian state. Not only may the decoding of the messages be incorrect, but also no current clairvoyant is able to judge the correct interpretation of Vanga’s speeches. And, despite the fact that the biblical elders echo the foreshadowings in question (regarding the destruction of the capital of the conflicting country), the holy book does not contain reliable information about what will happen to Syria in 2018.

Among other clairvoyants who lived in the past, it makes sense to mention about, who himself stated about the unfolding of a difficult situation in the eastern part of the world. Obviously, the famous predictor from France did not leave behind accurate predictions about the Muslim power in question. But the fact that he reported on the transformation of the brawls into the 3rd World War, to put it mildly, does not add optimism to the residents of Syria at all.

In the end, a change in the vector of hostilities to confrontation between the Russian Federation and the United States will be difficult for Syrian residents to bear. This will begin to happen, even considering that both countries are on the same side of the barricade in protecting Syria from banditry.

What do the stars foretell on this issue?

There is reason to turn to the predictions for Syria for 2018, created by modern adherents of the corresponding teaching. On the eve of military brawls, the vast majority of such specialists saw in the starry abyss a black personality preparing to take the reins of government over the state, and then the East would endure armed conflicts.

In principle, the listed astrological forecasts came true, since a black ruler came to power in the United States, and Syria began to suffer from hostilities. As a leading representative of astrology states, such events take place due to the presence of Uranus in Aries at the moment, and such a combination, according to the canons of the science in question, will not allow us to deal with the problem without the use of weapons.

Finally, it is worth noting the right of every person to make a mistake, and the great soothsayers are no exception here, including Nostradamus himself and the blind woman Vanga. So you don’t need to listen too much to the stories of specialists in this field.

Analytics

Results of the year: what Russia fought in Syria

With its actions in Syria, Russia has finally convinced America that this is not just a subjective foreign policy, but an undermining of American hegemony

Boris Rozhin summed up the military-political results of the outgoing year in great detail and detail in LiveJournal, and also outlined the prospects for the new year.

War with the Caliphate

The main result of the 2017 campaign was undoubtedly the defeat of the Caliphate. The group fell victim to its strategy of unbridled aggressive expansion, creating too many enemies and fronts in 2014-2015, which ultimately led the Caliphate to military collapse. If 2016 was the year of a strategic stop in the expansion of the Caliphate and the beginning of its retreat, then 2017 was the year of its defeat. Over the past year, the Caliphate lost all significant cities and strategic points, based on which it tried to build its quasi-state formation, which the architects of the Caliphate saw as the first real state of radical political Islam without ideological impurities and compromises. By 2017, the Caliphate already had a number of features of a state - an army structure (with a clear military hierarchy, well-thought-out logistics and competent commanders at the tactical and operational levels), a bureaucratic apparatus, intelligence services, a rudimentary military-industrial complex, a judicial system, advanced propaganda tools and a diversified economy. , where, against the background of a decrease in the percentage of revenues from the sale of oil (the price of which was tied to the dinar of the Caliphate), tax collection in the controlled territories increased and handicraft production and agriculture were preserved. The complete transformation of the terrorist group ISIS (a terrorist organization banned in the Russian Federation) into a full-fledged state was prevented by military defeats, which broke the back of the power bloc of the Caliphate and destroyed its economic basis.

The reasons for this lie in the unsuccessful Grand Strategy carried out by the leaders of the Caliphate, which led to the fact that the Caliphate cracked under the weight of the available fronts against too many and superior opponents. The successful operation in December 2016, which allowed the Caliphate to recapture Palmyra and brighten up the impression of a number of strategic failures, as expected, turned out to be a local success, followed by a series of strategic defeats. By concluding a deal with Erdogan, Russia and Iran freed their hands for operations in Central and Eastern Syria, which quickly affected the military-strategic position of the Caliphate. After unsuccessful attempts to build on Palmyra's success, the "black" offensive stalled on the approaches to Tiyas, while Syria and its allies gathered forces for a strategic offensive.

In the spring it moved inexorably to the east. Palmyra was liberated again, the front on the Deir-Hafir-Jira line was broken through, and the traditional attempts of the Caliphate to strike along the Khanasser-Aleppo highway, which previously made it possible to slow down the offensive attempts of the Syrians, were repulsed. During the summer, the front on the banks of the Euphrates, along which Syrian troops and allies advanced towards Tabqa, began to crumble. In these battles, the most combat-ready units of ISIS were crushed, and losses in heavy and light armored vehicles were especially painful. After reaching the American bridgehead in Tabqa, the SAA began to flow around it from the south and was able to decisively get ahead of the SDF units at Resafa, laying the foundation for further advances to Deir ez-Zor.

At the same time, operations to advance along the Palmyra-Deir ez-Zor highway successfully developed, which led to the occupation of T-3 and Sukhna. Iranian proxies successfully advanced along the border with Jordan (flowing around At-Tanf) (despite US attempts to slow down this offensive with airstrikes and raids by controlled terrorist groups), which by the end of the summer occupied most of the border between Syria and Jordan (with the exception of part of the border in Deraa and that aka At-Tanfa). The territory of ISIS in Eastern Homs also gradually decreased, where within a year, after heavy fighting, the SAA and its allies took Akerbat, Huwaisis and all the key oil fields. Local counterattacks of the “blacks” became less and less effective from an operational point of view throughout the year, although they still inflicted significant losses on the attacking troops in men and equipment (mainly due to the massive use of suicide bombers and attacks on communications).

In addition to unfavorable operational factors, the economic capacity of the Caliphate was reduced throughout the year. Massive airstrikes by the Russian Aerospace Forces and the US Air Force largely destroyed the oil infrastructure of ISIS, and the reduction of controlled territory led to a decrease in tax revenues. Already in the first half of the year, payments to militants were once again reduced, which led to the outflow of some mercenaries from the territory of Syria and Iraq. The level of the infantry itself dropped significantly, both due to large losses and for reasons of accelerating the training of personnel in training camps.

In view of this, in 2017, the “black” infantry no longer looked as strong as in the initial stages of the war, when it was noticeably superior to the average infantryman of the Iraqi and Syrian armies. An important role in this was also played by the training programs of the Syrian and Iraqi armies, which were carried out with the help of the Russian Federation, Iran and NATO countries. As a result, the level of the warring parties in this component has become equal, and naked fanaticism alone will not get you far in a modern war. The reduction in the number of trophies in Syria and Iraq, which have always played an important role in replenishing the fleet of light and heavy armored vehicles, has reduced the capabilities of the Caliphate army at the tactical level throughout the year.

The shortage of tanks, self-propelled guns, infantry fighting vehicles and MLRS led to a natural, but futile transition to the tactics of massive attacks by suicide bombers. In essence, the “blacks” followed the same path as Imperial Japan at the end of the Second World War, when the massive use of suicide bombers also increased American losses, but ultimately led to the complete bleeding of aviation, which was made dependent on suicide attacks .

So is the Caliphate - having gone into all-out attacks by suicide bombers, the “blacks” lost their most fanatical supporters, and a meaningful strategy was replaced by straightforward strikes in the hope of taking as many opponents with them as possible. Taking into account the difference in resource and demographic potentials, this led the “black” military machine to an understandable disaster. The harbinger of the collapse of the Caliphate was the completed assault on Mosul and the defeat of the Tal Afar state. After terrible losses among both personnel and civilians, as well as enormous destruction, Mosul was liberated by the Iraqi army, and the Caliphate lost its Iraqi capital, from which the Caliphate troops marched on Baghdad in 2014.

The defeat of the Caliphate's troops in the Nineveh region was aggravated by the separation from the Caliphate of a piece of territory west of Mosul, where a new state was proclaimed with its capital in Tal Afar, which tried to gain military-political subjectivity, dissociating itself from ISIS (a terrorist organization banned in the Russian Federation). This short-lived state was also destroyed by the Iraqi army, which was actively helped by the Iranian Hashd-Shaabi formations and a few Kurds. The defeat of the vilayat of Niniviya ended with images of mass executions of captured militants of the Caliphate (according to various estimates, from 800 to 1,600 militants were shot).

Iraqis remembered ISIS's mass atrocities (terrorist organization banned in the Russian Federation) in the occupied territories, mass graves of Christians, Yazidis, Shiites, Kurds were found, and therefore the principle “Woe to the vanquished!” prevailed here in its entirety. ISIS militants (a terrorist organization banned in the Russian Federation) were treated exactly the same as they treated their opponents. Among those killed in battle and shot after captivity, there were many tactical commanders, emirs, administrators, and propagandists. The Mosul massacre, which became one of the bloodiest in all the years of the Syrian-Iraqi war, not only bled the Iraqi army dry, but also caused huge personnel losses to the Caliphate, which it had nothing to replace.

After the collapse of the Tal Afar state, the defeat of ISIS (a terrorist organization banned in the Russian Federation) in Iraq became inevitable. By the end of 2017, the “blacks” lost almost all significant settlements, including oil infrastructure facilities. The group returned to where it started - terrorist attacks and attacks in sparsely populated areas. How the state of the Caliphate in Iraq ended during 2017. The brunt of the fighting fell on the shoulders of the Iraqi army and Shiite volunteers. The main benefits were reaped by Iran, which sharply strengthened in Iraq, which was perfectly proven by the collapse of the Iraqi Kurdistan project, which the Iranians buried with Soleimani’s unwavering hand.

But let's return to Syria. At the beginning of autumn, the final breakdown of the strategic front of the Caliphate in Syria occurred. Syrian troops broke through the desert to Deir ez-Zor, which had survived several years of siege and was now becoming a mainstay for SAA operations in Eastern Syria. The release of the blockade of Deir ez-Zor after intense fighting and the release of the adjacent airfield made it possible to launch operations both against Maadan and against Mayadin, which, after the fall of Raqqa, became the new capital of the Caliphate in Syria. ISIS (a terrorist organization banned in the Russian Federation) was able to gather its strength due to the transfer of troops from Iraq and the concentration of a strike force in the Mayadin area. The counterattack that took place in mid-autumn led to some difficulties for the SAA (Al-Qaryatein was lost, there was a significant threat of losing Sukhna, control over the Palmyra-Sukhna-Deir ez-Zor highway was lost) and significant losses in people and materiel (according to due to negligence, ISIS militants destroyed a huge ammunition depot at the Deir ez-Zor stadium) + the Russian group suffered losses in the command staff (later, the hero of the defense of Deir ez-Zor, Issam Zahreddin, also tragically died).

But the militants failed to build on their success; the “fire brigades” gradually dealt with local crises in the Sukhna and Al-Qaryatein areas, after which the Caliphate, having used up its last operational reserves, was left with nothing. The SAA and its allies quickly cleared Deir ez-Zor and occupied Maadan and Mayadin. In the desert in eastern Syria, after heavy fighting, the Caliphate was forced to retreat from T-2. At the end of the year, a denouement came - the Syrians and Iranian proxies advancing from At-Tanf united with the Iraqis and the Hashd-Shaabi in the Abu Kemal area, after which they began to storm the last capital of the Caliphate. After fairly stubborn battles, the enemy’s resistance was broken and the Caliphate as a state ceased to exist. What remains is the ISIS group (a terrorist organization banned in the Russian Federation), which has returned to where it started. At the end of 2017, it still controls a piece of the desert in Eastern Syria, individual villages and territories in the northeast of Deir ez-Zor province, a piece of the Yarmouk camp near Damascus, a small enclave in the southwest of Daraa province, as well as a fragment of northeastern Hama , where part of the defeated Akerbat group broke through.

Thus, at the end of 2017, it is possible to diagnose the defeat of the Caliphate as a state and the decisive defeat of its armed forces. The “country” that declared war on Russia in 2015 and laid claim to the North Caucasus ceased to exist in 2017. During 2018, the remnants of large detachments of ISIS (a terrorist organization banned in the Russian Federation) will be defeated, and the territories they still occupy will certainly be liberated.

In the medium term, the group itself will completely go illegal in Syria, and its numbers will decline, although even now it still has at its disposal from 1 to 2 thousand armed militants + a certain number of supporters in those liberated from ISIS (terrorist organization prohibited in Russian cities. This will set the stage for continued terrorist warfare and armed attacks for the next few years until these people are either killed or otherwise neutralized. The fight against ISIS (a terrorist organization banned in the Russian Federation) as a state is over, the fight against ISIS (a terrorist organization banned in the Russian Federation) as a terrorist group continues.

The war with al-Nusra and “immoderate terrorists”

Agreements with Turkey and the United States allowed Syria, Russia and Iran to finally achieve a division of terrorists into moderate and immoderate. This led to a series of strategic consequences:

1. On some fronts, the fighting stopped, which allowed Syria to withdraw the necessary troops for operations against the Caliphate and those who did not want to surrender enclaves.

2. The strategy of consistent elimination of “green” enclaves in Western Syria continued. The enclaves of Wadi Barrada, Beit Jinn, Arsal (the latter was cleared jointly with the Lebanese army), etc. were liquidated peacefully and militarily.

4. The “green” alliance, already quite loose, began to crumble both at the level of its sponsors and at the level of bloody civil strife in Idlib.

The agreements in Astana consolidated this trend, postponing the final solution to the “green issue” until 2018 and removing the real threat of the “greens” to the strategic positions of Assad, who can now afford to speak to them from a position of strength, although back in December 2015 he was I agree to negotiations without preconditions. But having refused the conditions of Assad and Russian diplomats, the militants and their sponsors are unlikely to be able to count on such offers. Militarily, the war with Al-Nusra and Co. resulted in a series of positional battles without significant results.

In addition to the liquidated “green” enclaves, we can highlight:

1. Months of street fighting in Eastern Ghouta, which did not lead to decisive successes for the SAA - the meat grinders in Jobar and Harasta once again demonstrated that Eastern Ghouta is the toughest nut to crack of all existing enclaves and it will be one of the last to be cleared. Despite great sacrifices and serious efforts, it was not possible to solve the problem of Eastern Ghouta in 2017. This is perhaps the most unsuccessful operation for the Syrians from a strategic point of view.

2. Battle of Northern Hama - March-April 2017. The largest offensive of Al-Nusra and Co. in 2017 began with the collapse of the SAA front, the loss of a number of cities, large losses in people and equipment, and the threat of losing the provincial capital. After the transfer of reserves and the active work of the Russian Aerospace Forces, the front was stabilized and the militants were gradually pushed back to the familiar contours of the El-Latamin ledge. The sides returned to approximately where they started, having lost a large number of infantry and equipment in one of the bloodiest battles of 2017. The SAA tried to shake the existing balance in the summer and Al-Nusra in the fall, but no significant success was achieved. The parties, as before, suffered significant losses, and Al-Nusra, near Maan, lost two captured T-90s at once.

3. The end of the year was marked by a major SAA offensive in northeastern Hama, where Syrian troops (including those transferred from Eastern Syria) are trying to break through to the Dahur airbase. The offensive has been going on for more than two months and has led to the liberation of dozens of small settlements, but the Al-Nusra front has not been broken through. Both sides also continue to suffer significant losses in men and equipment, which is quite traditional for northern Hama. A noteworthy moment is the offensive of the ISIS task force, which escaped from the Akerbat pocket and is advancing on the territory of Al-Nusra, capturing its villages and inflicting significant losses on the “greens”. The SAA is happy with this situation, so they don’t put undue pressure on ISIS, so as not to prevent the militants from fighting each other. A typical situation for a three-way war.

Currently, the SAA continues to increase its efforts to achieve its operational goals. The Russian Aerospace Forces are actively helping the Syrians (both at the front in north-eastern Hama, and through attacks on rear facilities and roads in Al-Latamine, Kafr Zita, Morek, Idlib, etc.). The presence of both ground personnel of the Russian Ministry of Defense and Iranian proxies is noted. As has already been officially announced, the defeat of al-Nusra will be one of the priorities of the 2018 campaign. As a result, if some of the enclaves and quiet fronts are dealt with diplomatically, then Idlib will obviously remain one of the hot spots of the Syrian war in 2018. For two years, terrorists from all over Syria were brought to this province. Now it’s time to clean up the “land of green buses.”

Taking into account the technical and quantitative superiority of the SAA and the Russian-Iranian coalition, the issue of the military defeat of Al-Nusra as an organized group may well be resolved within the next year. Despite stubborn resistance, Al-Nusra’s capabilities are quite limited, and the current meat grinders in Hama are leading to the grinding down of the most combat-ready units. However, Al-Nusra and Co. should not be underestimated. The shelling of Latakia, which was stopped by Pantsir, shows the possibility of problems in seemingly calm directions. So you should not underestimate the enemy. This is an old and dangerous enemy, and victory over him will be all the more honorable.

USA and the Kurdish issue

For the United States, 2017 was a rather controversial year. Raqqa was taken with great effort, and some of the militants were taken out of the city, and the city itself was severely destroyed. Part of the oil fields south of Al-Shaddadi were occupied. But this did not bring the United States any closer to achieving the strategic goals of the war. Trump inherited from Obama an already failed strategy to overthrow Assad and secede Rojava from Syria.

US activity has mainly been reduced to one-time provocations (such as a strike on Shayrat, shelling near At-Tanf, the downing of a Syrian plane near Resafa, or dangerous maneuvers near Russian aircraft) and strengthening its positions in the At-Tanf area and on the territory of Rojava. The problem for the United States is that now maintaining these positions has become an end in itself, although previously they were tools for dismembering Syria and overthrowing Assad. In the At-Tanf area, the United States has already had to close down its forward bases, but the United States does not want to give up At-Tanf itself, hiding behind controlled terrorists operating with the support of a network of prepared camps on Jordanian territory under the control of the CIA, SAS and Jordanian military intelligence.

On the territory of Rojava, the United States continued to develop a network of airfields and logistics points that should support the operations of the contingent stationed on the territory of Rojava. At the current stage, the United States is trying to maintain its military presence in Syria at least until negotiations on an inter-Syrian settlement, in order to have a more advantageous bargaining position. Therefore, persistent attempts by Russia and Syria to expel the United States from the occupied territories are pointedly ignored. At the same time, the Kurdish project is becoming less and less promising for the United States. The “Euphrates Shield” and Turkey’s transition to the role of a fellow traveler of the Russian-Iranian coalition, back in 2016, made it possible to drive a wedge between Rojava and Afrin, putting an end to the unification of the Kurdish territories.

Erdogan, despite individual demarches, fulfilled his obligations (which is his advantageous difference from the United States) and greatly contributed to Russia’s achievement of a number of military-political goals, earning a gift at the end of the year in the form of permission to sell tomatoes in Russia and a contract for the supply of C- 400.

The fall of 2017 was marked by the epic disaster of the Iraqi Kurdistan project and the entry of Iranian proxies to Feish Khabur, which created a threat to the main transport artery between Rojava and Iraqi Kurdistan. In the current conditions, the Kurds are unlikely to be able to declare real independence, which means the strategic value of the project for the United States is decreasing. At the same time, support for the Kurds leads to a deterioration in relations with Turkey, which is thus simply pushed out of the arms of Russia and Iran. Therefore, the United States is trying to sit on two chairs, supporting the Kurds and not completely destroying relations with Turkey, which, like Russia, is striving to achieve the withdrawal of American troops from Kurdish territories.

At the end of 2017, the Kurdish issue has not been resolved. There are still contradictions between Assad and the Kurds, some of the Kurdish leaders are still firmly under the Americans, Erdogan does not want compromises on the Kurdish issue. Russia and Iran will have to seriously try in 2018 to drag the Kurds into inter-Syrian negotiations and achieve a balance of interests of the parties in order to defuse the Kurdish bomb without war. A successful resolution of this issue will most likely help resolve the issue of squeezing the United States out of Syria.

Israel's position

Another important problem is Israel, which for a long time relied on the endless war of the Arabs among themselves, and eventually discovered a sharply strengthened Iran under its nose. Periodic attacks on Hezbollah reflect the growing tension between Iran and Israel, which worsened after the outbreak of the 3rd Intifada associated with Trump's demarche over Jerusalem. Israel will of course continue to attack Hezbollah in Syria, but the trend is that sooner or later the Syrians and Lebanese will take control of the border with Israel, and Iran’s position will strengthen faster than Israel will be able to weaken the Iranian infrastructure in Syria, which will also rely on the resources of Iraq, which has fallen under the influence of Tehran.

Tension in the Golan Heights, shelling of Syrian territory, missiles arriving from Gaza, the threat of war in South Lebanon - all this creates a new military-political reality for Tel Aviv. This year, Kassem Soleimani, to his many regalia and achievements, added a brilliant operation to defeat the Iraqi Kurdistan project. Perhaps the current aggravation around Jerusalem was associated with an attempt to draw Iran into a direct confrontation, for which it is not yet ready, but Tehran prefers to continue to adhere to the doctrine of hybrid warfare, which has brought it success in Syria, Iraq and Yemen, so successful for itself. The United States and Israel, in turn, will seek to comprehensively undermine Iran’s influence in Lebanon, Yemen, Syria and Iraq, as well as strengthening centrifugal tendencies in Iran itself, where, as past protests show, there are certain internal problems (including the Kurdish factor) that can be played on .

However, for now Iran is on horseback, and Hezbollah, associated with it, is perhaps at the peak of its military-political and economic capabilities. Things are progressing well for Iran in the Yemen ulcer, which is depleting Saudi Arabia, which has received its Afghanistan. Apart from Russia, Iran is certainly one of the main winners of the 2017 campaign.

Collapse of the Saudi coalition

At the same time, during 2017 we observed the collapse of the anti-Assad coalition. First, Qatar fell away from it, entering into separate negotiations with Iran and Turkey, and then with Russia. Attempts to stall the Qatari emir were unsuccessful. Russia and Iran supported Qatar diplomatically, and Turkey deployed its troops on its territory, after which the pressure on Qatar went off, and plans to overthrow the emir failed. But 2 years ago Qatar threatened to intervene in Syria. Now IRGC officers are visiting Qatar. East is a delicate matter. Things are no better in Saudi Arabia. The bet on jihadists in Syria turned out to be a defeat; control over part of the groups passed to Turkey, which is using former Saudi assets to bargain with Russia and Iran.

Attempts to punish Qatar have failed. Riyadh is losing the hybrid war with Iran on all fronts (which pushes it into the camp of the United States and Israel), and more than anything else, the Saudis are being annoyed by the Yemeni plague, which is sucking huge resources from the country’s budget. Attempts to close this issue with one blow failed after the suppression of Saleh's coup and his murder, which means that in 2018 the Saudis will suffer, watching Shiite missiles fly towards their capital. Therefore, already in mid-autumn, King Salman went to Moscow to negotiate the normalization of relations. He no longer stammered about intervention in Syria, but a multi-vector spirit and a desire to buy the S-400, following the example of Erdogan, awoke in him. Saudi Arabia's foreign policy weakness and military failures were complemented by internal turmoil that affected the ruling dynasty.

As a result, by 2018, one of the main sponsors of terrorists in Syria arrived with a undermined economy and a failed foreign policy. The logical result of defeat in the Syrian war and failures in the hybrid war with Iran.

Inter-Syrian settlement

In general, it can be stated that by 2018, the positions of all Assad’s foreign opponents had weakened. The anti-Assad coalition is in a state of half-life; a significant part of opponents have already admitted that Assad actually won and the only question is how many years after the end of the war he will rule. The United States, Israel and Saudi Arabia will naturally seek to weaken the positions of Assad, Russia and Iran, delay the end of the war, prevent the resolution of the Kurdish issue, or, at worst, achieve favorable peace terms. Diplomacy will come to the fore in 2018 as discussions begin on the outcome and consequences of the Syrian war, as well as the future of Syria and the entire region. This does not negate the need to defeat the remnants of ISIS, eliminate al-Nusra, resolve the Kurdish issue and complete work with the remaining “green enclaves.” All this will constitute the internal Syrian news agenda, the degree of resolution of which will determine whether 2018 will be the last year of the Syrian war or its end will drag on until 2019.

Of course, the Syrian war will be closely intertwined with a number of other conflicts - American-Russian, Iranian-Israeli, Palestinian-Israeli, Iranian-Saudi, as well as local crises in Lebanon, Iraq and Yemen.

Russia and the 2017 campaign

Since Russia’s role in all these tectonic events changing the region has already been covered in detail, and “leaving Syria” is relatively short in our country. Russia, of course, is not leaving Syria anywhere, retaining 2 bases for 49 years, the ability to vary the composition and number of its contingent, and ample opportunities to use the benefits achieved to spread its military-political and economic influence in the region. Politically, this is manifested in negotiations on bases in Libya, Sudan, and Egypt. Economically - in the activities of Russian companies in Syria, Iraq, Egypt. In addition to the regular troops, a contingent of PMCs will probably remain in Syria, as well as various military specialists who will help train the Syrian army and arm it with the products of the Syrian Express, which has been running like an electric broom all year along the Tartus-Novorossiysk route.

Dispute over the laurels of the winner of ISIS (terrorist organization banned in the Russian Federation) remains to be seen, but it is quite obvious that Russia made a great contribution to the defeat of the Caliphate, retaining the opportunity in 2018/2019 to declare itself the victorious country of the Syrian war, depending on the pace of solving the problems voiced above. Despite the initial skepticism of many experts about the Syrian operation, it developed quite normally, making it possible to achieve a number of key objectives that sharply strengthened the Russian Federation’s position in the region and buried the slogan “Assad must leave.”

Losses remained within normal limits, the information war was waged more or less successfully, including in the West.

Of course, there were also problematic issues:

2. Leaders were also noted for a number of strange statements with completely inflated figures of killed militants and liberated territories, which did not convince even a loyal audience. As shown by a number of information gaps, such as the publication of screenshots of a computer game or Putin watching left-wing videos in an Oliver Stone film, serious gaps remain in the information support of the Syrian war. Of course, the principle “Write as much as you can, why feel sorry for their bastard” has not gone away, but all parties to the conflict do this, so Russia is no better or worse than others here.

3. One can also note the persistent reluctance to form a more clear information position on PMCs, which created, and will continue to create, vast space for various speculations, where it was already agreed that the war was won by Utkin and several hundred people. The reasons for this lie in the uncertain status of PMCs in Russia (perhaps after the end of the Syrian war, a law regulating their activities will finally be adopted), when de facto there are PMCs, but de jure they are not. Accordingly, there are no PMCs in Syria, there seem to be no losses, but there are some. Naturally, this gap is used by the enemy’s propaganda, although this is not critical for the entire campaign.

4. Among the more significant points, we can note losses in the senior command staff, some gaps in intelligence work (with the missed ISIS attack on Sukhna or the breakthrough of the front in Hama) and the somewhat chaotic conduct of operations according to the principle of “grab everything, miss nothing” in the fall of 2017 a year when the available forces were clearly not enough to solve all the planned tasks.

By the end of 2017, it “turned out” that the Wagner PMC liberated most of Syria, defeated several ISIS brigades, etc., etc., with a number of several hundred people. If all this were true, then of course Utkin’s group would become the most effective PMC in history. In fact, everything was much more complicated and the notorious PMCs were just a cog in a larger mechanism.

However, the mentioned problems did not prevent the successful completion of the campaign. The main military tasks were successfully resolved throughout the year, which was reflected in the strategic maps of the Syrian war and the changed military-political situation around Syria. In addition to local Syrian successes, the 2017 campaign allowed Russia to strengthen its position in the Middle East and North Africa, demonstrating a sharp weakening of US positions in the region. At the same time, the Syrian war has aggravated the contradictions between Moscow and Washington, where a victory in the Syrian war will be for Russia just a won battle in a war where the game is played on many boards. Therefore, if on a regional scale, Russia’s successes completely change the rules of the game, then on the scale of a conflict with the United States, this is only a serious retaliatory blow for the failure of 2014 in Ukraine.

At the same time, the struggle does not end in Syria - the front remains in Ukraine, the build-up of NATO troops in Eastern Europe, the strengthening of ISIS and the American group in Afghanistan, and the escalation of the arms race in the Far East. And about attacks by ISIS cells (terrorist organization banned in the Russian Federation) As recent events show, it should not be forgotten.

And it seems that the logic of the Cold War will push Russia to take active action in other existing or potential theaters of war, where it will intersect with the interests of the United States and its satellites, which of course will not forget about the failure of the Arab Spring and their failure in Syria. The Syrian war shows that the Russian Federation will no longer be a whipping boy, and in the new US military strategy adopted at the end of 2016-2017, Russia has already officially become the main adversary of the United States along with China. With its actions in Syria, Russia has finally convinced American hawks that this is not just a subjective foreign policy, but an undermining of American hegemony itself.

And when we see the consequences of the Syrian war in the Middle East, these are, first of all, processes of change in the current world order, which are expressed through a local military conflict. Russia, like Iran, are the main actors in the changes taking place here. The Syrian campaign of 2017 only strengthened the trends that formed in 2014-2016. And in this regard, the Syrian war continues to change the world around us, although not everyone sees or is ready to accept the changes taking place.

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