Summary: Russian-Kazakh relations. Contemporary Kazakh-Russian relations: historiography of the issue

Looking to the future

In Russian-Kazakh relations, 2012 became an anniversary year and was held under the auspices of the 20th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between the two countries. The Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of the Republic of Kazakhstan to the Russian Federation talks about some of the results of interaction between our states Galym Orazbakov political scientist Maxim KRANS.

– For more than two decades, Russia and Kazakhstan have been living independently. But from the first days of independence, both countries tried to find common ground in interstate relations, and in regional ties, and in their interaction in the world. How would you describe the current level of relations between our states?

- Indeed, it has already been 20 years since the two independent states established diplomatic relations. In May, we celebrated the 20th anniversary of the Treaty of Friendship and Cooperation. Over the years, our countries have maintained not only good-neighborly relations, but also become strategic partners.

We have a lot in common - a centuries-old common history, similar interests and vectors of development, the interpenetration of cultures at the kindred and universal levels, warm relations between the national leaders of our states.

It is quite symbolic that in the new Address “Strategy:“ Kazakhstan-2050 ”, our president, defining the priorities for the development of partnership, among all countries first of all named Russia.

The consistency of our foreign policy towards Russia has determined the systemic and multifaceted nature of Kazakh-Russian relations.

Suffice it to say that the trade turnover between the countries has already reached a record figure of $ 24 billion. Hundreds of joint projects are being implemented. These are interaction in the space industry, joint use of oil fields in the Caspian Sea, development of transport communications, transportation of energy resources through Russia to world markets, general programs in industry, energy, and infrastructure. Over 3500 Kazakh-Russian enterprises operate in various industries.

Bilateral cooperation is developing on a planned basis. At a regular meeting on December 19 in Moscow, Nursultan Nazarbayev and Vladimir Putin reaffirmed the course of mutual rapprochement by signing the Joint Action Plan of the Republic of Kazakhstan and the Russian Federation for 2013–2015.

In addition, in the presence of the presidents of the two countries, a memorandum was signed between the governments of Russia and Kazakhstan on cooperation in the creation of an emergency response system in case of accidents using the Era-GLONASS system and the possibility of developing additional navigation and information services in the field of transport on its basis.

Our states act from similar positions on many important international issues. Kazakhstan and Russia actively cooperate within the UN, CIS, EurAsEC, SCO, CSTO, CICA, etc.

But, perhaps, the main result of two decades is the growing friendship of our peoples from year to year. According to the latest data from VTsIOM, most Russians consider Kazakhstan the most reliable partner of Russia, and the president of the republic, Nursultan Nazarbayev, the most trustworthy. political leader among the heads of state of the Commonwealth. I am sure that the majority of Kazakhstanis have a similar attitude towards Russia and the Russians.

– Cooperation between Russia and Kazakhstan is multifaceted. But it attaches particular importance to interregional ties ...

- There is a high degree of interest of the regions themselves, of the local business community in the development of interregional ties.

The interregional cooperation forums with the participation of the heads of the two states give a systemic character to these processes.

In general, forums contribute to effective solution issues of interaction between government and business, increasing the competitiveness of the economy and social well-being of the population, the development of industrial cooperation and mutual trade.

In September 2012, the next, IX Forum of Interregional Cooperation was held in Pavlodar. It signed 4 bilateral international documents and 27 agreements on projects totaling about $ 2 billion.

It should be noted that such a platform for bilateral relations has no analogues in the world.

- Probably no less important is the fact that Russia and Kazakhstan have truly become locomotives integration processes in the post-Soviet space ...

- You are right, it was the good-neighborly Kazakh-Russian relations that formed the basis of the Eurasian integration. As we remember, the idea of integration was voiced by Nursultan Abishevich back in 1994. Today we see how it comes to life.

For almost two and a half years we have been living in the conditions of the Customs Union of Belarus, Kazakhstan and Russia. Since the beginning of this year, a trilateral integration project has been launched - the Common Economic Space.

The efficiency of the integration processes is obvious: the removal of customs barriers and the reduction of tariffs for transportation opened a new, more high level relations between our states. A common market has been formed with a population of over 170 million people. A vast field for joint activities has appeared, conditions are being created for free movement capital, goods, labor resources. The population and the business community have already felt these conveniences. The trade turnover of the three countries of the Customs Union with the outside world in 2012, according to preliminary data, will exceed $ 1 trillion.

A qualitatively new stage of integration is now entering. By 2015, it is planned to create the Eurasian Economic Union. This principled course was fixed by our leader in the new Address "Strategy:" Kazakhstan-2050 ". Thus, among the main priorities for the implementation of foreign policy, the head of state emphasized: “We will strengthen the Customs Union and the Common Economic Space. Our immediate goal is to create the Eurasian Economic Union. "

Prospects for integration interaction in the new conditions became the main topic of the meetings of the Supreme Eurasian Economic Council and the EurAsEC Interstate Council, which took place on December 19 in Moscow. Summing up the results of the meetings, Nursultan Abishevich stressed: "The Customs Union, the future Eurasian Economic Union is our response to the challenges that exist today, this is a solution to those crisis phenomena that can threaten our economy."

- The role of Kazakhstan in the development of integration processes is obvious. But, probably, the country's achievements in the international arena, in "big politics" are no less impressive ...

- Undoubtedly, over the years of independence, we have achieved serious success.

Kazakhstan is adequately represented in the United Nations. Our country plays an important role in strengthening global security. Kazakhstan is rightfully recognized as the leader of the movement for a nuclear-free world.

Over the past three years, Kazakhstan has chaired the OSCE, SCO, OIC (Organization of Islamic Cooperation), CSTO.

This year Astana hosted the fourth Congress of Leaders of World and Traditional Religions.

Kazakhstan's initiative to convene an interfaith forum to reduce tensions in the world has received universal recognition and broad support from the UN and has become an adequate response to the challenges of our time.

20 years ago, our country became the organizer and the main ideological inspirer of the Conference on Interaction and Confidence-Building Measures in Asia - a kind of Asian analogue of the OSCE.

Today CICA has become an effective forum of multilateral diplomacy, which unites 24 states, in which half of the world's population lives.

Astana has become the permanent capital of economic forums. So, in May 2012, the jubilee V Astana Economic Forum was held, which brought together about 8 thousand participants from 90 countries of the world.

The initiative of our president to create the G-Global project on the basis of the Astana Economic Forum has earned worldwide recognition. The essence of the initiative is to consolidate efforts to create a just and secure world order. New communication platform for a short time brought together experts from 150 countries.

The position of our country as a sports power is strengthening every year. Last year Astana became the capital of the 2011 Asian Games. In 2012, at the London Olympics, our team won seven gold medals, moving up from 29th to 12th overall team place. In 2017, we are preparing to meet the participants of the 28th World Winter Universiade in Almaty.

- Well, now Kazakhstan has won the right to host EXPO-2017 ...

- Quite right. By the way, it should be noted, quite deservedly. The international community has chosen the Kazakh capital as the venue for this most prestigious exhibition due to the achievements of our country in the field of economics and science. This is rapid development National economy, and its clear innovation focus. The victory was also facilitated by the high degree of relevance of the topic proposed by Kazakhstan - "Energy of the Future".

In general, the decision to hold "EXPO-2017" in Astana became another recognition of our capital as a center worthy to host an event of a global scale. This is not only a high honor, but also a great responsibility for the whole country. Therefore, holding EXPO-2017 has become our new national project.

After the collapse of the USSR, relations between Russia and Kazakhstan turned into one of the most important components not only in the post-Soviet space, but also in the field of geopolitics. Diplomatic relations between the Russian Federation and the Republic of Kazakhstan were established on October 22, 1992, and all this time Russian-Kazakh relations have been developing in the spirit of good-neighborliness, alliance and strategic partnership.

On January 31, 2002, the official opening of the Russian Embassy took place in the new capital of the Republic of Kazakhstan - Astana. In April 2002, the Russian consulate in Uralsk began to function. Since 2004, the Russian Embassy has been working in Astana (in Alma-Ata - the consular section of the embassy). The Consulate General of Kazakhstan in St. Petersburg and the Consulate of Kazakhstan in Astrakhan are functioning.

Kazakhstan was the first CIS state with which Russia signed on May 25, 1992 an Agreement on Friendship, Cooperation and Mutual Assistance. According to the Treaty, the parties recognize the inviolability of the borders existing between them and agree to carry out equal and beneficial economic, scientific and technical cooperation. The treaty provides for the creation of a common military-strategic space, the joint use of military bases, training grounds and other military facilities.

Another fundamental bilateral document is the Declaration "On Eternal Friendship and Alliance Oriented in the 21st Century" signed in July 1998 during N. Nazarbayev's working visit to Moscow (neither Russia nor Kazakhstan has a similar agreement with any other country).

Over the past years, more than 270 agreements and cooperation agreements have been signed between the two countries. Among them: the Declaration on the Expansion and Deepening of Russian-Kazakh Cooperation (1995), the Treaty on legal status citizens of both republics (1995), Agreement on a simplified procedure for acquiring citizenship (1995), Agreement on the Customs Union (1995), Agreement on Russian participation in the development of the Caspian shelf and gas field in Karachagalak (1995), Agreement between the Russian Federation and the Republic of Kazakhstan on the state border (2005) and others.

Cooperation is actively promoted at the parliamentary level. On April 1, 2003 in Astana, Speaker of the Federation Council of the Russian Federation S. Mironov and Chairman of the Senate of the Parliament of Kazakhstan O. Abdykarimov signed a protocol on the development of cooperation.

Political contacts are maintained, primarily at the highest level:

In June 2000, the President of Kazakhstan Nursultan Nazarbayev paid an official visit to the Russian Federation, following the results of negotiations with President of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin, a joint statement was signed, as well as a Memorandum on the further development of cooperation on ensuring the functioning of the Baikonur complex.

On December 18-19, 2002, during N. Nazarbayev's working visit to Russia, during a meeting with Russian President V. Putin, the development of trade and economic relations between the two countries was discussed.

In February 2003, a working visit of the President of Kazakhstan to Russia took place, during which a meeting with President of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin took place, at which the state and prospects for the development of economic relations were discussed.

On January 9-10, 2004, the President of the Russian Federation paid an official visit to Astana. At the talks between Vladimir Putin and Nikolai Nazarbayev, key issues of bilateral relations, interaction in integration structures, and cooperation in the international arena were considered.

On May 25-26, 2004, the Prime Minister of the Republic of Kazakhstan D.K. Akhmetov was in Moscow on a working visit.

On January 12, 2005, a short one-day working visit of the President of the Russian Federation to Kazakhstan took place. The parties discussed issues of energy cooperation and border delimitation, as well as a number of international problems.

On January 17-18, 2005, the official visit of the President of Kazakhstan N. Nazarbayev to the Russian Federation took place. The presidents signed the "Agreement between the Russian Federation and the Republic of Kazakhstan on the state border".

In the presence of the presidents, intergovernmental agreements were signed on the creation of the Kazakh communications and broadcasting satellite "Kazsat", as well as on the mutual protection of rights to the results of intellectual activity used and obtained in the course of bilateral military-technical cooperation.

On November 16, 2005, the State Duma of the Russian Federation ratified the Treaty on the Russian-Kazakh state border introduced by the President of the Russian Federation. The document is aimed at completing the international legal registration of the state border between the two countries and increasing the level of border security on the longest section of the state border of the Russian Federation, which is 7.5 thousand kilometers and passes through the territory of 11 constituent entities of the Federation.

Trade and economic cooperation.

In foreign economic relations of the Russian Federation with the CIS countries, Kazakhstan ranks third (after the Republic of Belarus and Ukraine). In the total trade between the Russian Federation and the CIS countries, the share of the Republic of Kazakhstan is 15%. Specific gravity RF in commodity exchange operations of the Republic of Kazakhstan - 24.7%.

Trade turnover between Kazakhstan and the Russian Federation exceeded $ 8 billion, reaching a record level over the past 10 years. According to Russian President Vladimir Putin, expressed by him at a meeting with Kazakh presidents Nursultan Nazarbayev in May 2005, "there is a chance to reach $ 10 billion by the end of this year," but in 2006 it reached $ 6 billion in six months. As a result of the agreement signed in August 2006 on the joint transit of goods through the territory of Kazakhstan and Russian cargo through Kazakhstan to Central Asia, the cargo turnover to China between Kazakhstan and Russia will grow by 30 percent.

In the structure of Russian exports to the Republic of Kazakhstan, the leading place is taken by the products of the fuel and energy complex and mechanical engineering, in the import from the Republic of Kazakhstan to the RA - raw materials, including energy carriers and ferrous metals, agricultural products.

Investment cooperation between the Russian Federation and the Republic of Kazakhstan is carried out, represented mainly by the activities in the republic of enterprises with the participation of Russian capital. In 2004, their number increased to 1.2 thousand.

At the level of the governments of the Republic of Kazakhstan and the Russian Federation, agreements on trade cooperation of the Kazakh side were signed with the years. Moscow and St. Petersburg, Astrakhan, Sverdlovsk, Omsk and Chelyabinsk regions, the Republic of Tatarstan and a number of other Russian regions.

Interregional and cross-border communications are supported. They account for up to 70% of foreign trade turnover. An impetus for the development of cross-border and interregional cooperation was given by the Forum of border regions of the Russian Federation and the Republic of Kazakhstan held in April 2003 in Omsk with the participation of the presidents of the two countries.

Of the 27 constituent entities of the Russian Federation located along the border with the CIS states, 12 border on the Republic of Kazakhstan. This gives particular urgency to the expansion and deepening of cross-border cooperation between them. The most active trade and economic ties with the regions of the Republic of Kazakhstan are supported by Moscow, Chelyabinsk, Sverdlovsk, Orenburg, Tyumen, Astrakhan, Omsk, Irkutsk, Kemerovo, Moscow, Novosibirsk, Kurgan and Samara regions, as well as Altai and Krasnoyarsk territories, the republics of Bashkortostan and Khakassia. These regions account for over 70% of the trade between Russia and Kazakhstan, and for cross-border cooperation - over 60%.

Economic cooperation between the regions of the Russian Federation and the Republic of Kazakhstan is carried out on the basis of cross-border economic schemes for the supply of Ekibastuz coal from the republic to the power plants of the Urals and Siberia with electricity sent in the opposite direction; mineral raw materials for mining metallurgy enterprises South Urals in exchange for their finished products; oil and gas condensate to refineries in Samara, the Orenburg region and Bashkiria for counter inflows of oil products and gas.
Cross-border cooperation issues are regulated by the Agreement and the Program on Economic Cooperation for 1998-2007. of October 12, 1998, the intergovernmental Agreement and the Program of cross-border cooperation between the regions of the Russian Federation and the Republic of Kazakhstan for 1999-2007. of September 24, 1999

In February 2003, the Presidents of the Republic of Kazakhstan, the Russian Federation, as well as the Republic of Belarus and Ukraine reached an agreement on the creation of a single economic space (CES) to accelerate economic growth in the countries of the Quartet. In September 2003, they also approved an agreement and a concept for the creation of the CES, according to which the freedom of movement of goods, services, capital and people should be ensured on the territory of the union.

In August 2005, the Russian-Kazakh joint venture KAMAZ-Engineering was launched in Kazakhstan. The project to create "KAMAZ-Engineering" is one of the first large and most successful joint Russian-Kazakh projects in the field of production of vehicles. The founders of "KAMAZ-Engineering" from the Kazakh side are the national company "Kazakhstan Engineering", from the Russian side - OJSC "KAMAZ". The design capacity of the enterprise will be 2350 units of vehicles per year. Since 2006, the enterprise will begin work on organizing the production of dumping units for KAMAZ vehicles and trailers, and from 2007 it is planned to organize the production of bus showrooms.

Military-technical cooperation.

After the collapse of the USSR, the largest military bases of Russia in the near abroad were located on the territory of Kazakhstan. This is a powerful range complex, which is of great importance for the defense capability of Russia: the nuclear test sites in Semipalatinsk, in Azgir, the Sary-Shagan test site / tests of strategic air and anti-missile defense systems / and the Emba test range / military air defense systems /. In addition, on the territory of Kazakhstan there are so-called "battlefields" - areas where spent stages of missiles launched from the Kapustin Yar and Vladimirovka ranges / 4th and 929th ranges / fall. In the early 90s, Kazakhstan declared all Soviet military facilities its property. Russian-Kazakh negotiations have begun on their use.

On March 28, 1994, Russia and Kazakhstan signed the "Agreement on the Basic Principles and Conditions for the Use of the Baikonur Cosmodrome", according to which the complex was leased to the Russian Federation for a period of up to 20 years with subsequent prolongation for a period of 10 years and an annual rental value of $ 115 million ( On May 25, 2005, the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation ratified an agreement between the Republic of Kazakhstan and the Russian Federation on the development of cooperation in the efficient use of Baikonur, which provides for the extension of its lease term until 2050).
Since 1994, within the framework of the intergovernmental agreement on military cooperation between Kazakhstan and Russia of March 28, 1994, more than 50 bilateral documents have been signed, covering a wide range of issues of ensuring joint security. These include the Agreement, Agreement on Cooperation and Mutual Settlements in the Disposal of Nuclear Weapons, Agreement on Cooperation in the Process of Reducing Strategic Offensive Arms Located on the Territory of the Republic of Kazakhstan, Agreement on Compensation for Equipment and Weapons Deployed to Russia from the Territory of Kazakhstan, departments on the joint planning of operational measures for the preparation of the Armed Forces of the two states, the Agreement on guarantees to the military of Russia serving in the Kazakh army under contract, the Agreement on the status of Russian military formations temporarily located in Kazakhstan.

Since 1996, Russia and Kazakhstan have been on joint combat duty within the framework of the unified CIS air defense system. The parties regularly interact in terms of coordinating defense doctrines, military-economic cooperation, as well as protecting the external borders of the CIS. Since January 2001, a bilateral commission on military-technical cooperation has been functioning.

In February 2000, the state company Rosvooruzhenie signed a general agreement with the state enterprise Kazspetsexport, which defines the main directions of military-technical cooperation, including the export of Russian military products to the Republic of Kazakhstan through partial repayment of Russia's debt for the lease of the Baikonur cosmodrome.

During the meetings of the Presidents of Russia and Kazakhstan N. Nazarbayev and V. Putin in late 2002 and early 2003, an agreement was reached on the implementation of a project to create a new rocket space complex at Baikonur, and on December 22, 2004, an Agreement was signed on the creation at the Baikonur cosmodrome. space rocket complex "Baiterek". The completion of the construction of the complex is scheduled for 2007-2008.

During the official visit of the President of the Russian Federation V.Putin to Kazakhstan on January 9-10, 2004, 11 documents were signed, including: an agreement on cooperation and interaction on border issues, an agreement on the development of cooperation on the effective use of the Baikonur complex, as well as further development of cooperation on issues of ensuring the functioning of this complex. An agreement was also signed on cooperation in the export of military products to third countries.

Kazakhstan and Russia are active participants in the Collective Security Treaty Organization, established in 2003 on the basis of a collective security treaty. According to the agreements reached, military-technical supplies from Russia to Kazakhstan within the framework of the CSTO will be carried out at domestic Russian prices (the agreement on preferential terms of sale came into force on January 1, 2004).

The training of Kazakh officers in Russia is considered a very important block of military-technical cooperation in Kazakhstan. In 2002, the parties agreed that this training would be carried out according to unified programs, based on modern military doctrinal developments. In 2003, 254 cadets were sent from Kazakhstan to Russia to study in Russian military educational institutions. Kazakhstan also attaches great importance to cooperation within the framework of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO).
On January 16, 2004, in Moscow, the Ministers of Defense of the Republic of Kazakhstan and the Russian Federation, Mukhtar Altynbaev and Sergei Ivanov, respectively, signed an Agreement on joint planning of the use of troops (forces) in the interests of ensuring joint security. The document was prepared in development of the provisions of the Treaty of Friendship, Cooperation and Mutual Assistance of May 25, 1992 and the Collective Security Treaty of May 15, 1992.

Cooperation in the field of culture.

The peak of cooperation between the Republic of Kazakhstan and the Russian Federation in the field of culture was the holding in 2003 of Kazakhstan in Russia and in 2004 - the Year of Russia in Kazakhstan.

The main events within the framework of the Year of Kazakhstan in Russia.

On February 18 in Moscow at the Bolshoi Theater the grand opening of the Year of Kazakhstan in Russia took place. Within the framework of the festive events on February 17-20, 2003, the Kremlin hosted the exhibitions "Golden Warrior: Treasures of the Saka Mounds", the Week of Kazakhstani Cinema, concerts of masters of arts of the Republic of Kazakhstan, etc. ...
On March 14, at the Moscow State Linguistic University, teaching of the Kazakh language began at the Faculty of Translation, specializing in Linguistics and International Communication. In addition, on the basis of the university, the Center of the Kazakh language and culture was created, designed to become the coordinator of interuniversity relations between the Republic of Kazakhstan and the Russian Federation on cooperation in the field of exchange of students and teachers and their joint scientific and educational activities.

On March 31, in Astana, a representative office of the Russian Center for International Scientific and Cultural Cooperation at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Armenia (Roszarubezhtsentr) was opened. The field of activity of the representative office is a wide range of Russian-Kazakh and international cooperation in the humanitarian, scientific and business spheres. The beginning of the work of the representative office is the first stage in the creation of the Russian House of Science and Culture in the republic.

On June 30 in St. Petersburg, an arts festival "From Almaty with Love" was opened, which was attended by Alibek Dnishev and Roza Rymbaeva, the Sazgen Sazy folklore and ethnographic ensemble, the Samruk studio theater, the Symphony Orchestra of the Opera Theater named after Abaya and other artists. Also, an exhibition of the collection of the Russian avant-garde of the 1920s - 1930s began working at the Russian Museum. from Almaty
From July 22 to August 1 at the Academic Opera and Ballet Theater of Yekaterinburg, the Kazakh State Academic Opera and Ballet Theater named after I. Abay. The Fountain of Bakhchisarai, the operas La Traviata and Faust, the ballets Giselle and Swan Lake were shown on the stage.

On September 30, the international scientific-practical conference "Kazakhstan: History. Culture. Language", organized by the Interparliamentary Assembly of the EurAsEC and St. Petersburg State University, was opened in St. Petersburg. During the forum, representatives of the national parliaments of the Eurasian Economic Community states, scientists, university professors, cultural figures of the Republic of Kazakhstan and the Russian Federation considered issues of interregional and cross-border cooperation, ensuring economic and information security.

Key events within the framework of the Year of Russia in Kazakhstan.

On April 5, at the invitation of the Ministry of Culture of the Republic of Kazakhstan and with the assistance of the Altyn Adam Foundation, Russian film director Yegor Mikhalkov-Konchalovsky visited Astana, showing his last (at that time) film "Antikiller-2" - the most successful commercial project of the last decade in the CIS.

On May 17-18, Pavlodar hosted the II Republican Festival of Student Youth of the Kazakh-Russian University (KRU), the program of which included a pop song and contemporary dance competition, a beauty contest, sports competitions, plenary and sectional sessions of a student scientific-theoretical conference, debates, performance of KVN teams.

On July 23, the historical and cultural ecological expedition "Zhaiyk-Ural" started in Orenburg, the participants of which - scientists, journalists, students and schoolchildren - sailed along the river in 16 days. Ural is almost 400 km from the city of Uralsk. During the expedition, environmental health issues were discussed.

September 10 in Astana in the Eurasian national university them. Lev Gumilyov held a republican meeting dedicated to summing up the results of the Year of Russia in Kazakhstan in the field of education. It was attended by representatives of the Ministry of Education and Science of the Republic of Kazakhstan, the Embassy of the Russian Federation in the republic, directors of republican educational institutions, representatives of public organizations.
In 2006, a monument to the outstanding Kazakh thinker Abai was unveiled in Moscow. 2006 is declared the year of Abai Kunanbayev in Russia. And in Kazakhstan it passes under the sign of Pushkin's poetry.

Organizations in which Russia and Kazakhstan interact

Russia and Kazakhstan interact within the framework of the CIS, the Collective Security Treaty Organization and the Eurasian Economic Community, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, the Central Asian Cooperation Organization, in the process of forming the Common Economic Space.

The Russian-Kazakh Intergovernmental Commission on Cooperation (IGC), established in 1997, operates. Within the framework of the IGC, there are subcommissions on the Baikonur complex, cross-border cooperation, transport, investment and military-technical cooperation.

Prospects for economic and political cooperation

Conclusion

Literature

Economic and political cooperation

History and geography objectively predetermined the special character of Russian-Kazakh relations. Both states are among the ten largest countries in the world in terms of area. The border between the two countries is over 6,000 km and is one of the longest in the world. Both Russia and Kazakhstan are pantries natural resources(oil, gas, metals). Finally, in Kazakhstan, even despite the significant outflow of the Russian-speaking population in the 90s of the last century, one of the most numerous Russian diasporas lives (up to a third of the population of the republic).

It is no coincidence that in 1992, starting to develop the foreign policy strategy of the newly independent Kazakhstani state, President N. Nazarbayev noted the fact that "due to geographical, political, ethnic and other historical factors, relations with Russia are for us the most important issue". Throughout the 1990s, it was Russian-Kazakh relations that were distinguished by the greatest intensity and, in general, developed without any particular upheavals. True, in the 90s a burning question Russian-Kazakh relations remained the position of the Russian-speaking population. Nevertheless, both countries are included in all integration formations created on the ruins of the USSR, and, for example, the Eurasian Economic Community (EurAsEC) was generally created on the initiative of N. Nazarbayev.

The desire to integrate with Russia meets the urgent needs of the young Kazakhstani republic. After all, Kazakhstan has no access to the sea and is located away from the world's transport corridors. Possessing large reserves of oil and gas, the country does not have a developed pipeline system. In this regard, Russia, due to its advantageous geographic location is of interest to its southern neighbor, since it can transport Kazakhstani energy resources at relatively low prices, which it does (about a third of the oil produced in Kazakhstan is exported through Russian territory).

Removal of all customs barriers and obstacles to trade (one of the main conditions of the agreement on the Common Economic Space (CES)) meets the economic interests of the two countries. Russia traditionally buys Kazakh grain. About 300 large joint Russian-Kazakh enterprises operate on the territory of Kazakhstan. The number of small joint ventures exceeds 1,000. Bilateral trade last year amounted to approximately $ 5.5 billion. And this is not the limit. At the opening of the Year of Russia in Kazakhstan in January of this year. the presidents of both states have promised to double it.

Economic systems Russia and Kazakhstan are similar in many ways. The difference in GDP per capita is negligible. The degree of depreciation of fixed industrial assets is almost the same. The leading role in exports is played by the raw materials sector, which leads to a high dependence on the world conjuncture of oil and metals prices, as well as on the exchange rate of the national currency against the US dollar. So, it is the Russian-Kazakh economic integration that is now the most real and relevant.

Without Russian assistance, it is difficult for Kazakhstan to count on a successful solution to security problems and strengthening its defense capability. In turn, Russia is interested in a reliable ally to ensure a stable situation in its "underbelly". These issues were in the center of attention during the recent visit to Astana of the Secretary of the Security Council of Russia V. Rushailo. After a number of amendments, a cooperation plan was approved law enforcement Russia and Kazakhstan for 2004 in the field of combating organized crime, illegal migration and drug trafficking. Earlier, the Minister of Defense of Kazakhstan M. Altynbaev agreed in Moscow that the republic would buy weapons at domestic Russian prices. At the beginning of February this year. The parliament of Kazakhstan ratified an agreement on the procedure for the mutual provision of military ranges for conducting live firing by formations and military units of the air defense forces of the two countries. In addition, Russia provides training of Kazakhstani military personnel on a gratuitous basis. Currently, 786 cadets from Kazakhstan are studying at Russian military universities.

Those. Russia is also strengthening the intellectual potential of Kazakhstan. Level Russian education, in spite of everything, was and remains high. Thousands of Kazakhstani students and postgraduates study at Russian universities. According to bilateral agreements, training for some of them is free of charge, which is not even available in Kazakhstan. Diplomas of Moscow and St. Petersburg universities are quoted in the republic not lower than diplomas of Western educational institutions, in which only a few can afford education.

Despite the decline in the supply of Russian printed publications to the republic during the years of independence, the reading tastes of its inhabitants have practically not changed. As reported by "Kazinform" agency, over four thousand Russian newspapers and magazines are read in Kazakhstan today. The five most popular Russian print media include Healthy Way of Life, Argumenty i Fakty, Za Rulem, Izvestia and Komsomolskaya Pravda. Russian television programs, serials and talk shows, as well as Russian music radio stations, are very popular in Kazakhstan.

At the same time, there are very significant obstacles on the path of integration, created mainly from outside. The rapprochement between Russia and Kazakhstan that has emerged over the past two years causes displeasure among some political circles in the West, which are not interested in the unification processes in the post-Soviet space. Political pressure on the Kazakh leadership has increased markedly.

Back in late 2001, during a meeting with Nursultan Nazarbayev, US President George W. Bush sharply expressed his unpleasant criticism of the situation in the republic. A year later, US State Department spokesman Phil Reeker and a group of American congressmen accused the Kazakh president of the fact that all the leading posts in the country are occupied by his relatives, and the money from the sale of oil and gas allegedly ends up in the accounts of the Fund for Future Generations, which he controls. At sessions of the European Parliament, the issue of human rights violations and persecution of dissidents in the republic is periodically raised.

Opposition Kazakhstani electronic media, funded by overseas sponsors, are actively involved in exposing the "criminal regime" and advocate an intensive rapprochement with the United States as opposed to Russia.

However, such "attacks" are virtual and do not pose a great danger to the ruling elite. The guarantee of the stability of the situation in Kazakhstan is an alliance with Russia. Moreover, the population also supports the course of integration with the northern neighbor. According to the results of a poll among residents of Kazakhstan conducted by the "Comcon-2 Eurasia" agency in April last year, 84% of respondents believe that the republic should unite with Russia. Only 3.6% of those polled were in favor of unification with the United States, 2% were in favor of an alliance with China, 0.4% - with Ukraine. 0.4% of the respondents do not support the idea of an alliance with any country at all. For the most part, Kazakhstanis do not want to unite with their neighbors - the states of Central Asia.

Thus, the choice by Kazakhstan of Russia as the main strategic partner is predetermined by historical, geographical, political and economic prerequisites. Union of Russia and Kazakhstan - two major states in the post-Soviet space - meets the vital interests of both countries and their peoples. The success of further integration depends on the actions of the leadership of Russia and Kazakhstan.

Russian-Kazakh relations and internal politics of Kazakhstan

The guarantee of Kazakhstan's stable development, including in the political aspect, lies only in the continuation of President Nazarbayev's Eurasian policy of rapprochement with Russia, in the area of efforts that Nursultan Abishevich is making to re-integrate the Eurasian space and to give the CIS a completely new meaning. It is the rapprochement of Kazakhstan with Russia that guarantees that the not so difficult, but gradually becoming somewhat tense political situation in Kazakhstan will be resolved harmoniously and positively.

It is very important here that the personal relations between Putin and Nazarbayev are developing, perhaps, in an optimal way in comparison with other heads of the CIS countries. The problems facing our countries today belong to a common “family of challenges”. Both Russia and Kazakhstan are building democracy, but this process is inscribed in a specific geographical, historical and cultural context. Democracy in both Russia and Kazakhstan is in the process of becoming, therefore, there is a periodic danger of distortion of this process, both in the direction of a relapse of authoritarian tendencies, and, conversely, in the direction of falling into chaos and uncontrollability. Both Putin and Nazarbayev, in a sense, have a similar situation: both Putin and Nazarbayev are democratic rulers popular in their homeland, who are primarily concerned with long-term stability in their countries, as well as rapprochement between all states of the post-Soviet space.

In other words, it is becoming more and more obvious that both Putin and Nazarbayev are on Eurasian positions and are following the Eurasian course. This course cannot be followed alone, since we are talking about the rapprochement between different countries, peoples, cultures, economies, and social systems. These processes are going on differently with Kazakhstan, at different speeds, but the general rhythm and general character they are very similar.

Well-known Russian and Kazakh experts share their forecasts regarding the dynamics of the development of Russian-Kazakh relations, whom we asked to answer the following questions:

1. What issues, in your opinion, will prevail on the agenda of bilateral Kazakh-Russian relations in 2018?

2. One of the key events of 2018 in Russia will be the presidential elections scheduled for March. What impact will they have on the internal political situation in Kazakhstan, on the bilateral relations of our countries?

3. According to the EEC, in January-October 2017, Kazakhstan and Russia managed to stop the negative trend of decreasing mutual trade and increase its indicators by 33%. Do you think it will be possible to continue this positive trend in 2018 and at the expense of which sectors?

4. In 2018, Kazakhstan's membership in the Security Council will continue, in addition, new rounds of the Astana process on a Syrian peace settlement are expected. How, in your opinion, will the cooperation between Russia and Kazakhstan on security issues in 2018 develop?

Eduard Poletaev, Head of the Public Foundation "World of Eurasia":

1 - 3. I am sure that the agenda of bilateral Kazakh-Russian cooperation will not undergo major changes, everything will be aimed at its development along the evolutionary path.

In addition to bilateral cooperation, work will continue within the framework of multilateral formats of interaction - primarily, the Eurasian Economic Union. As you know, in 2018 Russia is the chairmanship of this organization, for sure, one should expect from it some significant initiatives and progress in this direction.

We should also expect a solution to the problem of “underintegration” of our economies: the Customs Code of the EAEU has just begun to work, which the member countries of the association could not agree on and adopt for a long time. There is still to "settle" possible contradictions, difficulties and misunderstandings in this part - the work goes "into the field".

In bilateral relations, the main problem in the economy - the decline in mutual trade - has been resolved. Last year we managed to achieve certain success in the growth of trade between our countries. There is great hope that this positive trend will continue. In addition, there are a number of agreements on joint investment projects, including in the border areas. Russian businessmen invest in the economy of Kazakhstan on average $ 1 billion annually. Kazakhstan is also an investor for the Russian economy, albeit on a smaller scale.

Let me remind you that about 70% of the trade turnover between our countries falls on the border regions. Plus Tatarstan is our most important trading partner. Among the promising joint projects, I would name a car manufacturing plant in Ust-Kamenogorsk. Cooperation with the Orenburg region is actively developing.

There are a number of problems in the fuel and energy complex, on which our economies strongly depend. But I must admit that in recent times the trend towards expanding the range of goods in mutual trade has intensified - this is partly due to the activities of the EAEU, partly to the sanctions confrontation, into which the Russian economy has become involved. Although the structure of exports in Russia has not changed significantly, nevertheless, mutual deliveries of manufacturing products between Kazakhstan and Russia have nevertheless increased. It is possible that in next year we will see the continuation and growth of this trend. After all, the EAEU was created in many ways precisely in order to form a progressive structure of the economy and overcome the raw material specialization of our countries in the international system of the division of labor.

Due to the fact that Russia has changed the context of interaction with many of its traditional foreign economic partners, its partners in Eurasian integration have good chances to occupy niches in the Russian market.

I would like to note that more than 90% of Kazakhstan's trade with the EAEU countries falls on Russia. The volumes of trade with Belarus, Kyrgyzstan, not to mention Armenia, are rather insignificant. Since in Russia there is a tendency towards import substitution and a reorientation towards export supplies to Southeast Asia, Kazakhstan can play its own, albeit small, corresponding to the scale of the economy, role in these processes - for example, in the supply of food products to Russian market, as well as the realization of its transit potential.

I will give an example of such import substitution: recently, a Latvian journalist was surprised to find Shymkent-made sprats on the shelves of Russian stores. This is an illustrative example of how Kazakhstan was able to organize the production of goods that were not at all typical for our market and for our region. Sprats are, after all, to some extent a political commodity: Russia, as you know, lifted the sanctions on their import for a number of producers in Latvia and Estonia in December 2017. However, it is quite possible that Latvian and Estonian manufacturers will find that this niche is already occupied by Kazakhstani entrepreneurs. Why not try the same scheme to produce and supply to the Russian market a number of other products from the sanctions list?

Pharmaceuticals is another industry in which the EAEU countries are highly dependent on Western technologies and raw materials. It is no coincidence that one of the very first single drug market was created - let me remind you that it started working last year. And although this production area is not in a brilliant state in the EAEU countries, nevertheless, the prospects for cooperation are very significant here. For this there is even historical background: for example, at the beginning of the twentieth century, medicines from Shymkent were exported outside the Russian Empire.

2. Kazakhstan has already expressed its attitude to the presidential elections in the Russian Federation, supporting the current Russian leader... Kazakhstan does not need surprises and surprises in the Russian electoral cycle. Moreover, our republic is interested in a strong and authoritative leader of a neighboring friendly state.

Our republic calmly and without stress went through a variety of election campaigns in the Russian Federation: when Boris Yeltsin left, and when Dmitry Medvedev was elected. This did not affect either the state of bilateral relations or the internal political situation in the republic. Although, of course, the population is interested in what is happening in the Russian Federation, the degree of predictability of the voting results is very high and therefore no surprises are expected from the elections.

Perhaps only technical issues will be important. For example, the Treaty of Friendship, Cooperation and Mutual Assistance between Kazakhstan and Russia in the 21st century, signed in Yekaterinburg in 2013, expires in 2018. If the parties do not want to change anything, then it will simply be prolonged. Perhaps the parties will want to strengthen it, introduce new formats of interaction into it. Then it is quite possible that a new agreement will be signed.

Of course, Kazakhstan will carefully consider what new tasks the elected President of the Russian Federation will set for the country and, probably, based on this, will adjust its strategic development plans.

In general, Kazakhstan and the people of Kazakhstan should not expect serious changes from the elections in Russia.

4. With regard to cooperation between Kazakhstan and Russia in the field of security, significant problems, in my opinion, are not foreseen.

It is another matter that today we are observing how the Syrian crisis is mutating - new players have joined it, new conflict points, new problems and new challenges have emerged. For example, recently there was news that Israel has launched strikes on Syrian territory. The protests have complicated the situation in Iran, a country that is one of the guarantors of the resolution of the Syrian crisis. All these changes will need to be taken into account when holding a new round of negotiations in Astana.

Kazakhstan has a significant bonus in 2018 to support security initiatives - access to an international microphone in the UN Security Council, at least during January, when it will preside over the Council.

I would like to note that Kazakhstan has taken quite seriously the mission of its membership in the UN Security Council. It is possible to assess in different ways the ambitions of Kazakhstan, which it is realizing thanks to its presence in the Security Council, nevertheless, it is obvious that these ambitions were supported by serious organizational work. A program of Kazakhstan's chairmanship was developed, seven priorities were formulated. A huge number of meetings have passed, resolutions and statements have been signed. The UN is a complex bureaucratic system. And membership in the Security Council is, first of all, a good practice for Kazakhstan. Kazakhstan's modern diplomacy is only 25 years old, in this we are inferior to such countries as Ukraine and Belarus, which have been in the organization since 1946, along with The Soviet Union, and in fact are the founding countries of the UN.

Although Kazakhstan is not the first post-Soviet republic to receive the status of a non-permanent member of the UN Security Council, it was overtaken by Ukraine and Lithuania, but the first in Central Asia. We represent the entire region. This experience is very good. Of course, it will be very difficult, because many countries have matured a request for reforming the Security Council - this has been repeatedly stated by the leaders of various states and international organizations.

Kazakhstan has a significant advantage in the Security Council - it has no contradictions with any of its permanent members. I am sure that the opinion of our republic will be heeded and we will be able to implement a lot of what we have planned.

Sergey Rekeda, Director of the Information and Analytical Center

1. Economy and security - these two areas will remain a priority in Russian-Kazakh relations in 2018. The first point is determined by the fact that the task of entering the trajectory of stable socio-economic development, corresponding to the modernization tasks facing both countries, remains urgent. In Kazakhstan, these tasks have already been formulated and promulgated, in Russia, most likely, they will be presented in 2018, but at the same time they are unlikely to be fundamentally different from Kazakhstani formulas.

The relevance of the second point - security - is dictated by the international context. In addition to the growing threats in the Afghan direction, the first week of 2018 was already marked by a number of important events both in Syria and in Iran, which testify that international tension will not ease this year.

2. Serious changes in the internal political situation of Kazakhstan in connection with the presidential elections in Russia, I think, should not be predicted. The main result of the elections for Kazakhstan should be the preservation of the previous level of allied relations and the continuation of the implementation of joint projects. In the pre-election period, information "stuffing" can be expected, which will be attempts to either discredit the partnership between the two countries, or link the internal Kazakhstani problems with "the growth of Moscow's aggressiveness during the pre-election period." It is logical, of course, to assume that in the first half of the year in connection with the elections, the attention of the Russian leadership to the internal situation will increase in comparison with foreign policy, but this will not seriously affect the dialogue between Moscow and Astana.

3. The growth of mutual trade noted by the Eurasian Commission is understandable and we expect - so far this is a period of recovery of previous indicators, rather than a leap forward, which should be expected only in 2018. account of high-tech industries. The problem is that mutual trade in traditional industries after the start of the EAEU is the cream that by and large already practically removed. Further, it is necessary to go to the growth of economic interaction through cooperation in new industries. Efforts in this direction can be observed from both sides.

4. In 2017, it was indeed possible to observe very effective cooperation between Moscow and Astana in the international arena, and such coordination of actions, I think, can be observed in 2018 as well. The western flank of foreign policy for Russia is now not a priority. More precisely, progress in this direction depends on the success of foreign policy in other areas - the near abroad, the Middle East, China, Southeast Asia... In these areas ...

Urazgali Selteev, political scientist, leading expert of the Institute of World Economy and Politics under the Foundation of the First President of the Republic of Kazakhstan - Elbasy:

1. You shouldn't expect any special changes. The traditional format of strategic partnership will be preserved. The strengthening of trade and economic ties and cultural and humanitarian cooperation will continue.

This is quite natural, since Kazakhstan and Russia are one of the main sales markets for each other. It is important to take into account that the Russian Federation occupies a significant share in the total volume of imports of the Republic of Kazakhstan. This figure has increased to over 38% over the past five years.

The development of border trade will continue. Interaction between regions has significant potential. There are growth points that are not fully utilized. This is evidenced by the annual forums of interregional cooperation.

Considering that this is 2018, the year of Russia's chairmanship in the EAEU, the main emphasis will be placed on strengthening relations within the framework of Eurasian integration. With the entry into force of the new Customs Code, problematic issues related to the elimination of exemptions and restrictions in trade will be resolved.

At the same time, some synchronization of internal development agendas can be expected in the near future. The point is that for Kazakhstan already now the key direction is the digitalization of the economy and technological renewal. In Russia, however, these issues are likely to sound more clearly in Vladimir Putin's election program, and subsequently the government will focus on their implementation as part of a new reform plan. Accordingly, any joint projects may arise here.

2. Absolutely none. The result of the upcoming elections in Russia is predictable. Therefore, Kazakhstan is guided by the continuation of the established dialogue with its neighbor.

3. It is clear that the main factor behind the decline in volumes in previous periods was the fall in oil and gas prices. Much depends on this, since energy resources occupy a significant share in the trade structure - 20-30%. And forecasts for world prices for this year are the most contradictory.

In general, I think there will be no fundamental changes in this area. In mutual trade, the same line of goods will remain. The structure of Kazakhstani supplies to the Russian Federation is dominated by the sale of raw materials in the form of energy carriers, ore and metals, agricultural products. In turn, the main export items of Russian manufacturers to Kazakhstan are engineering products, foodstuffs and chemical products.

4. In the area of security, the visions of Kazakhstan and Russia coincide. In addition to the fact that Kazakhstan chairs the UN Security Council in January, in 2018 our country is also at the head of the CSTO.

Undoubtedly, Russia, as a permanent member of the UN Security Council and a strategic partner, will support Kazakhstan's initiatives in these international structures.

It is worth noting that the problems that Kazakhstan plans to raise in the UN Security Council will also be updated through the CSTO. This concerns security in Central Asia, water resources, the situation in Afghanistan.

Recorded by Zhanar Tulindinova (Astana)

Prospects for economic and political cooperation

Conclusion

Literature

Economic and political cooperation

History and geography objectively predetermined the special character of Russian-Kazakh relations. Both states are among the ten largest countries in the world in terms of area. The border between the two countries is over 6,000 km and is one of the longest in the world. Both Russia and Kazakhstan are storehouses of natural resources (oil, gas, metals). Finally, in Kazakhstan, even despite the significant outflow of the Russian-speaking population in the 90s of the last century, one of the most numerous Russian diasporas lives (up to a third of the population of the republic).

It is no coincidence that in 1992, starting to develop the foreign policy strategy of the newly independent Kazakh state, President Nazarbayev noted that "due to geographical, political, ethnic and other historical factors, relations with Russia are the most important issue for us." Throughout the 1990s, it was Russian-Kazakh relations that were distinguished by the greatest intensity and, in general, developed without any particular upheavals. True, in the 90s, the situation of the Russian-speaking population remained an acute issue in Russian-Kazakh relations. Nevertheless, both countries are included in all integration formations created on the ruins of the USSR, and, for example, the Eurasian Economic Community (EurAsEC) was generally created on the initiative of N. Nazarbayev.

The desire to integrate with Russia meets the urgent needs of the young Kazakhstani republic. After all, Kazakhstan has no access to the sea and is located away from the world's transport corridors. Possessing large reserves of oil and gas, the country does not have a developed pipeline system. In this regard, due to its favorable geographic location, Russia is of interest to its southern neighbor, since it can transport Kazakhstani energy resources at relatively low prices, which it does (about a third of the oil produced in Kazakhstan is exported through Russian territory).

The economic systems of Russia and Kazakhstan are in many ways similar. The difference in GDP per capita is negligible. The degree of depreciation of fixed industrial assets is almost the same. The leading role in exports is played by the raw materials sector, which leads to a high dependence on the world conjuncture of oil and metals prices, as well as on the exchange rate of the national currency against the US dollar. So, it is the Russian-Kazakh economic integration that is now the most real and relevant.

Without Russian assistance, it is difficult for Kazakhstan to count on a successful solution to security problems and strengthening its defense capability. In turn, Russia is interested in a reliable ally to ensure a stable situation in its "underbelly". These issues were in the center of attention during the recent visit to Astana of the Secretary of the Security Council of Russia V. Rushailo. After a number of amendments were made, a plan for cooperation between the law enforcement agencies of Russia and Kazakhstan for 2004 in the field of combating organized crime, illegal migration and drug trafficking was approved. Earlier, the Minister of Defense of Kazakhstan M. Altynbaev agreed in Moscow that the republic would buy weapons at domestic Russian prices. At the beginning of February this year. The parliament of Kazakhstan ratified an agreement on the procedure for the mutual provision of military ranges for conducting live firing by formations and military units of the air defense forces of the two countries. In addition, Russia provides training of Kazakhstani military personnel on a gratuitous basis. Currently, 786 cadets from Kazakhstan are studying at Russian military universities.

Those. Russia is also strengthening the intellectual potential of Kazakhstan. The level of Russian education, in spite of everything, has been and remains high. Thousands of Kazakhstani students and postgraduates study at Russian universities. According to bilateral agreements, training for some of them is free of charge, which is not even available in Kazakhstan. Diplomas of Moscow and St. Petersburg universities are quoted in the republic not lower than diplomas of Western educational institutions, in which only a few can afford education.

Thus, the choice by Kazakhstan of Russia as the main strategic partner is predetermined by historical, geographical, political and economic prerequisites. The union of Russia and Kazakhstan - the two largest states in the post-Soviet space - meets the vital interests of both countries and their peoples. The success of further integration depends on the actions of the leadership of Russia and Kazakhstan.

Russian-Kazakh relations and internal politics of Kazakhstan

In other words, it is becoming more and more obvious that both Putin and Nazarbayev are on Eurasian positions and are following the Eurasian course. This course cannot be followed alone, since we are talking about the rapprochement between different countries, peoples, cultures, economies, and social systems. These processes with Kazakhstan are proceeding in different ways, at different speeds, but their general rhythm and general character are very similar.

2004 passed as "the year of Russia in Kazakhstan", and 2003 as "the year of Kazakhstan in Russia". Over these two years, an irreversible breakthrough was made in the rapprochement between our states and in the approach of the moment when it will be possible to talk about the real creation of the "Eurasian Union". There is no doubt that the integration of the post-Soviet space from now on will proceed more intensively, successfully, positively and constructively. This will affect, first of all, the rapprochement between Moscow and Astana, because the key to the integration of the entire post-Soviet space lies precisely in the Moscow-Astana axis, as well as in the success of involving Kiev in this process.

Now Russian-Kazakh relations, and the relationship between our Presidents on a personal level, as well as their unanimity in the restructuring of the post-Soviet space, are the key to political stability of all CIS countries and, of course, first of all, Russia and Kazakhstan. Russia possesses the economic, political, strategic, diplomatic, social and cultural potential that is capable of supporting President Nazarbayev himself on the domestic political plane. The rapprochement of Kazakhstan with Russia turns the factor of the Russian population, which in other circumstances could even be a destabilizing force, given its importance, volume in Kazakhstan, into a factor that will serve to strengthen Nazarbayev's position in the domestic political sphere. In addition, if the common economic projects of Russia are implemented, if Russia fully and completely, as it is doing now, realizes the need for a strategic partnership with Kazakhstan even at the cost of some concessions on tariff policy, on customs issues, as the leaders of our governments are increasingly talking about. countries, then Russia will acquire in the person of Kazakhstan such a reliable strategic partner, which has no equal in the post-Soviet space.

This will undoubtedly strengthen the socio-political positions of Nazarbayev, who in yet another area will be able to demonstrate to his people all the advantages of integration and all the positive, economic, including tariff and customs benefits of Eurasianism, especially in the delivery of energy resources. Russia is simply doomed to an alliance with Kazakhstan, and the political future of the President of Kazakhstan and the President of Russia for a fairly limited period of time will be associated precisely with the success of political integration between our states.

Much, if not all, will depend on the creation of that "Eurasian Union", which Nursultan Nazarbayev prophetically declared back in 1994. It should be noted that fortunately, this idea is becoming more and more popular in the Russian leadership. The fact that 2004 began with the visit of our President to Kazakhstan is a symbolic chord of the Eurasian course, under which the four years of the subsequent presidency will pass. After his re-election in March 2004, the course of Putin's rule will be even more Eurasian - the weight and significance of Eurasianism will be incomparably greater than in the previous four years. Therefore, a visit to the Eurasian capital, to the Eurasian Nazarbayev, to a country where Eurasianism is actually the ruling ideology, on the part of our President Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin is a symbolic gesture that must be evaluated in this way. And for Nursultan Nazarbayev, this is colossal political support. And as soon as the people, citizens of Kazakhstan see that at last the Eurasian initiatives of their President find understanding from Russia, the main partner in integration, the political, national rating of Nazarbayev, his international influence will sharply increase. Possessing such political wisdom and such active initiative, President Nazarbayev is becoming the most important figure in European and even world politics before our eyes.

Nazarbayev has three main challenges in domestic politics:

1) The first is a challenge from the pro-American, anti-Nazarbayev, ultraliberal elite, sponsored by Kazhegeldin and embodied in the extreme opposition of the "liberal-democratic" wing, which criticizes Nazarbayev for the "authoritarian" features of his rule, for his Eurasianism, for a positive attitude towards Russia. It is a very small, but very active and based on transatlantic support group. In a general democratic context, it can hardly pose any danger or threat to Nazarbayev, but, nevertheless, it is a rather aggressive force.

2) The second challenge is Kazakh nationalists who assess Nazarbayev differently, partly support him, partly not, or even criticize him for his loyalty to the Russian population, and so on. But their project is an alternative to Eurasianism and, in fact, a fallback for Atlanticism; if the ultra-Westernizing, extremist-liberal scenario does not pass, the stake will be made on "Kazakh nationalism" in order to prevent integration processes in Eurasia.

3) The third challenge is the Russians in Kazakhstan. This is a significant part, 40% or even more, of the population of Kazakhstan, who, to a certain extent, are dissatisfied with the very format of the existence of the national Kazakh state, in which, of course, they find themselves in a minority and experience a certain psychological disadvantage, which is not in administrative terms, but at least least in their minds.