After repeated analysis of the financial and technological potential of Russian enterprises in various industries, an approximate ratio of the significance of the functional components of economic security was obtained, based on the following provisions.
- 1. In ensuring economic security and effective functioning trade enterprises and enterprises operating in the financial markets, including banks, enterprises operating in the stock markets, carrying out insurance and investment activities, an important role is played by information support of business, as well as the factor of financial activity. To ensure the economic security of enterprises operating in the financial markets, the level of personnel plays a very important role. At the same time, both for enterprises operating in the financial and stock markets, and for trade enterprises, the role of the power component of economic security is higher in comparison with industrial and agricultural enterprises, while the impact of environmental problems is significantly less significant for them.
- 2. For industrial and agricultural enterprises, the role of financial security their production activities. At the same time, for industrial enterprises, the role of the intellectual and personnel component, as well as the system information support production (the latest technological information and information about the movement of the company's markets are especially important). At the same time, for agricultural producers, the environmental component is much more significant than for industrial enterprises. This is due to the fact that for agricultural enterprises, land is the main factor of production and ecological situation significantly affects the results of agricultural business, while industrial enterprises ecological problems only concern through pollution penalty systems environment and violation of environmental standards for manufactured products.
Risk in economic activity is the possibility of financial losses (decrease in profits, income, loss of capital, etc.) under uncertain conditions of investment activity. The risk arises from the uncertainty of the external and internal environment.
It is impossible to avoid risk in economic activity, but it is possible and even necessary to be able to manage it, trying to prevent negative consequences.
Let's consider the main methods of dealing with risk.
Risk avoidance method. It is used by entrepreneurs who prefer to act risk-free. The essence of this method is to choose a conservative strategy. The decision on the choice of such a strategy is made, as a rule, at the stage of project development.
Risk compensation method. This is a proactive method. Unlike the previous one, it does not imply risk avoidance, but implies the creation and active use of various tools for combating risks and their negative consequences... This is the use of forecasting and strategic planning systems in the activities of the enterprise, active marketing, and the creation of reserve funds.
Risk diversification method. This method involves the distribution of risks by timing, structure, sources of occurrence, etc. In financial investment, we are talking about portfolio diversification, when investment capital is distributed between securities with different risks, returns and correlations in order to minimize non-systematic risk.
With diversification of risks entrepreneurial activity(real investment) this group of risk management methods includes various options diversification:
- diversification of activities, understood as an increase in the number of used or ready-to-use technologies, an expansion of the range of products or the range of services provided, an orientation towards various social groups consumers, etc .;
- diversification of the sales market, those. work simultaneously on several product or regional markets;
- diversification of procurement of raw materials and supplies involves interaction with many suppliers, which reduces the dependence of the enterprise on the unreliability of individual suppliers of raw materials, materials and components.
Risk insurance method. This method, unlike the previous ones, does not involve the use of risk management tools, but compensation for full or partial damage due to the onset of a risk situation (insured event).
The listed methods can and should be used in a complex manner.
In fig. 5.2 presents a generalized diagram of entrepreneurial risks by the nature of their occurrence (risks are divided here into external and internal in terms of an approach to risk management).
Introduction.
Decisions made in the face of risk are those whose outcomes are not definite, but the probability of each outcome is known. Probability is defined as the degree of possibility of a given event occurring and varies from 0 to 1. The sum of the probabilities of all alternatives must be equal to one. In conditions of certainty, there is only one alternative.
The most desirable way to determine probability is objectivity. Probability is objective when it can be determined by mathematical methods or by statistical analysis of accumulated experience. An example of objective probability is, for example, that a coin goes up "tails" 50% of the time. Another example is the forecasting of the mortality rate of the population by life insurance companies. Since the entire population serves as the base of the experiment (experience), insurance actuaries can predict with high accuracy what percentage of people of a certain age will die in this. next, etc. years. From this data, they determine how much premiums they must receive in order to pay claims for insurance benefits and still make a profit.
In a real, dynamic economy, the future is always uncertain and unpredictable. This means that the entrepreneur takes the risk. The risk of not receiving the intended results is especially evident when monetary and commodity relations are universal, competition between participants in economic turnover.
At the dawn of the industrial revolution, Adam Smith considered it necessary to include in profits something like an insurance premium to compensate for the risk that the man who invested his capital in the business ventured. A. Smith, and other representatives of the classical school of economic theory, attributed risk to factors in the formation of a part of the profit.
The goal of entrepreneurship is to obtain maximum income with minimum capital expenditure in a competitive environment. The implementation of this goal requires the commensuration of the size of the capital invested in production and trading activities with the financial results of this activity. When carrying out any type of economic activity, there is objectively a danger (risk) of losses, losses, shortfalls in planned income and profits.
Thus, risk is the likelihood of losses, losses, shortfalls in planned income and profits.
The factors affecting the economy and management decisions and the risks associated with this process can be conditionally divided into five main groups: political, legal, economic, social and technological.
Business in Russia is closely related to risks, therefore the system of anti-risk measures is becoming an integral part of economic activity.
2. Risks, dangers, threats to the activities of the enterprise (firm)
The strategic plans of the enterprise are implemented in the context of the ambiguity of the course of real socio-economic processes. At the time of making decisions, it is almost impossible to obtain accurate and complete knowledge about the time-distant environment for the implementation of the enterprise strategy, about all existing or potentially possible internal and external factors. All this is the essence of the expression of uncertainty as an objective form of existence of the world around us. A manifestation of uncertainty can delay the onset of planned events, change their content or quantification, or cause undesirable developments (LDCs), both foreseeable and unexpected. As a result, the intended goal, for the sake of which strategic decisions are made, will not be achieved. An important strategic goal of the enterprise is to achieve economic security.
The economic security of an enterprise (firm) is a state of a given economic entity, in which the vital components of the structure and activities of an enterprise are characterized by a high degree of protection from unwanted changes. To do this, the enterprise should adhere to a strategy that ensures a sufficient level and build-up of socio-economic potential, sustainable business development and preparedness for possible undesirable changes in the sphere of its life.
Security and risk assessments at the disposal of the subject, i.e. his knowledge, obtained by him either independently on the basis of experience and intuition, or specially developed on the basis of a situation study, including with the help of specialists, determines his sense of security (danger). In turn, the feeling of security either prompts the subject to search for ways to increase security, to achieve its acceptable level, or it allows him to switch his activity and resources to other goals, if the security assessments are high, i.e. the level of risk is high.
It is advisable to carry out an applied analysis of the problems of economic security and risk associated with the activities of a particular enterprise in the context of a general description of its functioning. The economic leader, being in the sphere of the fatal action of certain deviating factors, is forced to take risks, i.e. make decisions in conditions of incomplete information, "without exact calculation", hoping for good luck, which requires a certain courage and determination from him. Risk is an inevitable part of any business activity. However, the existence of a risk that accompanies the activities of one or another market entity in itself is neither an advantage nor a disadvantage. Moreover, the absence of risk, that is, the danger of unpredictable and undesirable events for the subject or the consequences of his actions, as a rule, ultimately harms the economy, undermines its dynamism and efficiency. Therefore, the existence of risk and the inevitable changes in its distribution are a constant and powerful factor in the development of the entrepreneurial sphere of the economy.
As for industrial enterprises, whose economic activity is mainly associated with the production of products, they can successfully operate and develop only by avoiding excessively risky decisions. In particular, this applies to large industrial enterprises, since they involve thousands of workers in risky situations, most of whom are not inclined to take risks. For such enterprises, decisions and actions aimed at reducing risk are characteristic.In this sense, they are fundamentally different from those economic structures whose economic activity is associated precisely with the use of high-risk situations (operations in stock markets, speculation in securities, venture financing, etc.). NS.).
The strategic plans of the enterprise are developed based on some fixed conditions, or at least on their more or less predictable development. Due to the fact that such assumptions are often violated, especially in the long term, there is always a chance not to achieve the intended goal, not to get the planned strategic result. The possibility of deviating from the goal of a strategic decision, that is, the discrepancy between the actually obtained economic result and the planned one at the time of making decisions, is usually characterized using the category of "economic risk". Note that this discrepancy is not necessarily for the worse; it is quite possible that the result will exceed expectations. However, this is more the exception than the rule.
The possible negative consequences of strategic decisions made and implemented without taking into account risk can be very painful for the enterprise and business. For an enterprise that is developing its strategy, ignoring risk can manifest itself in various undesirable business results. These include, for example, a decrease in stock prices (instead of the planned increase), a decrease in profit margins and a decrease in investment efficiency compared to the planned risk-free level, ineffective expenditures of material, labor or financial resources, the formation of excess stocks of unsold products, other types of lost profits and economic losses.
Thus, the concept of acceptable risk, orienting an economic manager towards a conscious, rational - as opposed to an adventurous, irresponsible - attitude to risk, offers methodological recommendations that are important for business activity in the field of material production. First, risk is not a static characteristic, but a controllable parameter; its level can and, most importantly, need to be influenced. Secondly, since such an impact can only be exerted on the "recognized" risk, it must be analyzed, that is, it is necessary to identify and identify risk factors, assess the consequences of their manifestation, etc. Thirdly, for the correct accounting of risk in the activities of a manufacturing enterprise, it is useful to distinguish between the "starting" level of risk, or the risk of the conception of the initial idea of the project (economic measure) or a variant of the strategy, and the "final" level of risk, which was assessed (for the chosen strategy of the enterprise, the accepted version of the project, planned for the implementation of economic measures, etc.) after the necessary procedures for assessing the risk and developing a set of measures to mitigate or neutralize the consequences of the manifestation of risk factors.
Determination of an acceptable value of the level of risk is an independent task of a special study, and the establishment of a certain level as such is the prerogative of the enterprise management or, at least, a manager of a higher level than the risk analyst. In the practical economic activities of the enterprise, taking into account the concept of acceptable risk, it is recommended:
When making business decisions, take into account the possibility of reducing the level of "starting" risk to an acceptable "final" level;
Identify potentially possible situations and risk factors that may cause failure to achieve the set goals;
Assess the characteristics of possible damage associated with undesirable development of events;
In advance, at the stage of preparing business decisions, plan and, if necessary, implement measures to reduce the risk to an acceptable level;
When making decisions, take into account the costs associated with preliminary analysis and risk assessment and preparation of measures to achieve an acceptable “final” level of risk.
At a manufacturing enterprise, the concept of acceptable risk should be implemented in such an organization of the management process so that the emerging risk factor does not come as a surprise to the manager and so that he does not have to make unreasonable decisions in a hurry.
Risk factors for a strategic decision of an enterprise are prerequisites that increase the likelihood or reality of the occurrence of events that, without being included in the circle of the planned ones, can potentially occur and in this case have a deviating effect on the implementation of the strategic plan (enterprise strategy). The result of the manifestation of the risk factor will be an undesirable development of events, the consequences of which will lead to a deviation from the set strategic goal of the enterprise, that is, to damage. Such events include both those that could have been foreseen, but it was impossible to specify the exact moment of the offensive, and those that could not be predicted.
The reasons for the risk (that is, the reasons for the implementation or occurrence of risk events) are objective or subjective actions or decisions that entail the undesirable development of further events that are unfavorable for the implementation of a certain enterprise strategy.
In order to judge the significance of a particular risk factor and the sufficiency of the preventive measures taken, the risk must be expressed in comparable indicators.
The risk level of the strategy (strategic plan) is taken as general characteristics risk. Its value as a result of the corresponding special research is expressed by some indicator of the level of risk.
The indicator of the level of risk, or simply the indicator of the risk of a strategy, is the level of risk expressed according to a certain rule in a certain scale. As an indicator of risk, for example, a weighted average estimate of the magnitude of damage for all possible chains of LDCs and others can be used. In strategic planning, quantitative risk assessments should be treated very carefully and should not be perceived in “stronger” scales than it was stipulated from the very beginning.
The center of gravity of efforts when taking into account the risk of strategic decisions is advisable to transfer from the construction of complex models to the search, systematization and detailed description of risk factors and the development of functional methods of risk management. To maintain the economic security of a manufacturing enterprise in a transformational economy, it is necessary to take into account all types of risk factors
3. Sources and risk factors
The inherent uncertainty of an economic system means that each economic agent must act to reduce uncertainty and the likelihood of a hazard. Moreover, sometimes you have to act at random and with great risk.
Risk refers to a hazard-related course of action necessary to avoid an even greater hazard.
When the hazard is measurable (logical or mathematical), the risk is reduced. Thus, risk is a way of action of an economic entity in conditions of uncertainty and unpredictability of events, aimed at meeting needs.
Risk acts as a relationship between the conscious, purposeful activity of a person and the circumstances in which he acts. In addition, risk reflects a certain set of socio-economic ties, relationships, actions that arise in society as a result of the perception of danger, assessments of it by people and the need to act in order to reduce the danger or its negative consequences.
Classification signs of risks by
different criteria:
- causes of occurrence (subjective, objective);
- functional types and spheres (financial, industrial, commercial, etc.);
- scale (local, sectoral, regional, national);
- the sphere of origin (external, internal);
- opportunities for diversification (systematic, specific);
- the degree of admissibility (minimum, increased, critical, unacceptable).
Depending on the result, risks are divided into two groups:
1.Net risks, meaning the possibility of obtaining a negative or zero result (climatic, political, commercial);
2. speculative risks, expressing the possibility of obtaining both positive and negative results (financial, investment, innovative).
Risk analysis consists of two mutually complementary types: qualitative and quantitative. Qualitative analysis risk is used to identify factors and potential areas of risk. Quantitative analysis risk is a numerical determination of the size of the risk and its consequences.
Risk management methods
- risk prevention;
- risk aversion;
- impact on the source of risk;
- reducing the time spent in hazardous areas;
- risk acceptance;
- reducing risky behavior;
- reduction of the amount of potential losses;
- reduction of the amount of actual losses;
- distribution of risk among different agents;
- disaggregation of risk;
- insurance transfer of risk;
- non-insurance risk transfer;
- financial engineering.
Risk prevention consists of examining each type of risk in advance and taking measures to prevent events that cause risk and loss.
Risk aversion means avoiding activities that can produce risks on a large scale.
Reducing the time spent in hazardous areas is achieved by reducing routes, controlling access, speeding up transactions, etc.
Reducing the amount of actual losses is ensured by activities to eliminate the consequences of risks.
Risk disaggregation is diversification as the division of risk over time or by stage.
Control questions to TOPIC 3.4.
1. What is meant by "risk" in the system of economic security?
2. What are the risks related to the criterion "scale"?
3. How do “pure” risks differ from “speculative” ones?
4. Name three methods of risk management
5. What is the “prevention” of risk?
TOPIC 3.5. SOCIAL SECURITY OF THE STATE
The current situation in Russian society actualizes the problem of social security as a conceptual basis for socio-economic programs of general federal and regional development.
Human potential, social capital, and scientific knowledge are becoming the determining factors in the development of the world economy and national economies.
The basis of the social security of the state is the analysis of the existing needs of society, the degree of their satisfaction, the forecast of development, as well as their orientation towards the contribution to the achievement of the most important ultimate socio-economic goals of the development of the national economy. In this regard, the criterion of economic and social security is the increase in the ability of the national economy to satisfy the complex of its socio-economic needs within the framework of the disequilibrium balance of conflicting economic interests of households, firms, and the state.
Social security, along with economic, plays a key role in the national security system, since it ensures the maintenance of a conflict-free state in society.
Social security implies the protection of citizens from internal and external threats at the level of their personal interests and needs. The social security of the state has complex structure, the main elements of which are:
- stability and sustainability of the social protection system;
- social independence of the state in the structure of international relations;
- the ability of the system of social guarantees for self-regulation, development and improvement.
Control questions to TOPIC 3.5.
1. What is the general criterion for the economic and social security of the state
2. What is the main role of social security in the national security system of the country.
TOPIC 3.6. ASSESSMENT OF THE LEVEL OF ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL SECURITY
The needs of the socio-economic development of society, control over the achievement of security goals and the management of this process require the development of appropriate indicators, threshold values and indicators of economic security. Comprehensive assessment economic security plays a key role in diagnosing the state of the national economy and opens up opportunities for correcting this state based on the development of appropriate programs.
The formation of a system for assessing the level of economic security should be based on methodological principles, such as:
1.economic security is a complex contradictory socio-system, characterized by a variety of properties and forms of manifestation, therefore, its comprehensive quantitative assessment can be given only through a system of indicators;
2. in this system, the corresponding qualitative characteristics should be reflected, which should be considered as a system of complementary, not mutually exclusive parameters;
3. it is advisable to include a group of social standards characterizing the socially safe level of the economy in the system of indicators of economic security;
4.the institutional block of indicators requires special attention
economic security.
In the system of indicators of economic security, there are three groups of indicators that differ in the nature of the target orientation.
First group:
indicators - the driving force (change in the population on the planet or in a given country, the economic capacity of the ecosystem).
Second group:
indicators - state (general economic and social indicators).
Third group:
indicators - response (institutional indicators).
Characteristics of indicators:
- general economic (GDP per capita, production
industrial and agricultural products, the level of labor productivity, the volume of internal and external debt, the budget deficit, the balance of foreign economic exchanges, etc.);
- social (the share of people with incomes below the subsistence level, the stock coefficient, the unemployment rate, the share of social expenditures in GDP, etc.).
The main methods for assessing and measuring the level of economic security:
The method of analyzing and processing the script,
Method of expert assessments,
Optimization method,
Game-theoretic methods,
Method of the theory of fuzzy systems, etc.).
The methodology for assessing the level of economic security is based on the calculation of weighted average values for each group of indicators (taking into account the ranking of countries according to the methodology of the World Bank: highly, medium, underdeveloped).
The essence of the methodology is that the values of the parameters for a specific country are determined and the indicators are highlighted: "leading", "coinciding", "lagging" in relation to
to the world average.
The results obtained are combined into groups with different levels of deviations from the standard:
Group I unites indicators that deviate from the world average values from 0 to 10% (an acceptable level of safety);
Group II unites indicators that deviate from the world average values from 10 to 25% (critical situation);
Group III combines indicators with deviations from 25 to 50%
(economic crisis);
Group IV - indicators with deviations of values over 50%
(economic disaster).
Calculation of the "index of economic security". The index is composite, reflects the harmonious development of the socio-economic system, covers interrelated social, economic and environmental components (the rate of sustainable economic development, the level of competitiveness of the economy, the level of quality of life).
Control questions to TOPIC 3.6.
1. List the groups of indicators characterizing economic security
2. What methods are used to assess and measure the level of economic security?
3. What deviation of indicators (in%) from the world average characterizes the “economic crisis”?
TOPIC 3.7. MECHANISM OF ENSURING ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL SECURITY
Economic security in the system of its connections and relations in the national economy is influenced by conditions and factors inherent in its essence (endogenous), as well as various manifestations external environment(exogenous), which are in the relationship between the macro- and mega-environment.
Conditions that determine economic security:
· The level of development of the productive forces (the nature of the social division of labor, the dominant technological order);
· The nature of production relations of the system of the national economy (types and forms of property relations, the nature and mechanism of social reproduction, the method of coordination and institutionalization of economic activity);
· Natural conditions (space cataclysms, natural disasters, climate change, depletion of resources, etc.).
Every manager is aware that the state of the enterprise cannot be 100% consistent with the desired result. The reason for this is that the company operates in an aggressive market environment, which constantly brings it out of a state of stability. The aggressiveness of the environment consists in a set of risks associated with any event.
Risk is the possibility of deviating the value of any parameter of production, market, financial system from a given target value by an amount that exceeds tolerance this parameter. The term "system" means any complex of interrelated elements that has a specific set of parameters (Table 10.1).
The parameters can be various quantitative and qualitative characteristics. When comparing them, it is assumed that acceptable value deviations.
The enterprise needs to develop a specific behavior model focused on minimizing (preventing) risks and consequences of their manifestation. Actually, this behavior, focused on ensuring the desired level of economic security, is enterprise risk management.
Table 10.1
Possible types of systems in economics
| System type | Parameter examples |
| Economic | Market environment Demand Inflation Currency rates |
| Organizational | Manageability Compliance with functions Concentration of functions Workload of departments |
| Technical | Any technical characteristics of the equipment Product properties (components of quality) Production capacity utilization factors |
| Financial | Efficiency of financial transactions Losses (damage) |
| System of rights | Presence of certain property rights Possibility to use property rights |
| Functional (sales systems, supply, management, personnel system) | Sales volume Frequency and volumes of supplies Staff turnover rate Average age employees |
| Mixed (technical and economic, complex) | Efficiency of the enterprise Efficiency of project implementation Successful implementation of strategies Compliance with deadlines Achievement of the set goals |
The enterprise does not exist in isolation, but within certain systems. Therefore, the total risk that an enterprise may face consists of two parts:
1) system (external);
2) non-systemic (internal).
So, external to the enterprise are:
The general state of the economy and society;
The state of the region to which the enterprise belongs;
Higher structure solution for vertically integrated enterprises.
The risks associated with these factors are systemic. They can be foreseen, but practically impossible to prevent. Such risks can be counteracted only by creating reserves and preparing alternative options in case of adverse events. Timely planning of activities in such events can significantly reduce losses, and in some cases - save the company from bankruptcy.
However, the state of the enterprise depends mainly on the way it operates on the market and the business it does. Risks caused by management decisions are partially manageable and non-systemic.
Thus, in fact, it is possible to manage a more significant amount of risks than it seems at first glance.
Procedure risk management consists of four stages.
STEP 1. Audit of risks in order to identify unfavorable events for the enterprise.
The purpose of such an audit consists in identifying and classifying risks, as well as their quantitative assessment and forecasting the consequences of their manifestation for the enterprise. It is necessary to systematize the information of the company's employees regarding the occurrence of possible risks, as well as to diagnose risks using special methods. At the same time, their permissible and limiting values are determined. As a result of the risk audit, it may turn out that the real risk map differs from the one that the head of the enterprise can imagine (intuitively and unsystematically). It may also turn out that:
The enterprise is rather risky in managing finances: accounts receivable are not analyzed, debtors are not influenced, financial dependence on outside organizations is significant, the efficiency of using its own and borrowed funds is not analyzed, the choice of funding sources is thoughtlessly carried out;
The takeover of the enterprise or loss of control over it is possible;
Lack of leadership initiative regarding the need for diversification can lead to an unstable position in the market;
Contractual (to order) work of the enterprise creates the basis for abuse by unscrupulous counterparties;
The enterprise has unprofitable production facilities, etc.
STEP 2. Development of risk management scenario analysis.
Risk management must be economically viable. This means that anti-risk measures must be considered to prevent possible losses due to adverse events. Therefore, it is imperative to carry out analysis to identify the risks that can be counteracted and the risks that can be taken.
STEP 3. Development of measures to minimize risks.
For the risks that need to be countered, anti-risk measures are developed. The range of ways to counter risks is extremely wide. There are several groups of such events:
1. Refusal to accept risk means abandoning the project or changing the way of its implementation.
2. Reducing the level of riskiness of activities involves the development of specific organizational and technical measures on the basis of processed plans and programs.
3. Risk insurance provides for the formation of insurance stocks by external organizations and their compensatory use.
4. Acceptance (absorption) of risks involves the formation of insurance stocks by the enterprise.
STEP 4. Creation of an organizational risk management mechanism.
As a rule, such a mechanism is a risk management system, the functions of which are:
Monitoring and assessment of enterprise risks;
Development of anti-risk measures;
Ensuring the implementation of anti-risk measures.
It should be noted that risk management is not a panacea for all problems: it does not deprive the company of risks, but it opens up significant prospects for management, namely, it makes it possible to:
Consider the activities carried out through the prism of the manifestation of all risks;
Anticipate adverse events and take effective action in advance;
Reduce the consequences of the manifestation of certain risks;
To completely avoid certain losses and take advantage of the opportunities provided.
If the risks are not managed, then the enterprise is doomed to reactive behavior. At best, this will lead to unnecessary losses and unnecessary expenses.
In countries with a developed business environment, risk and economic security management is quite common. V last years considerable attention is also paid to this at domestic enterprises. For domestic enterprises, risk management is more relevant than for foreign ones, since domestic business technologies are at the stage of formation and transition to a civilized business. As already noted, the business environment, which today is extremely unstable and causes a much greater systematic risk than in the West, also affects the efficiency of an enterprise. This applies to the state, and executive discipline, and existing approaches to doing business, and the specifics of the mentality.
Thus, Management of risks - this is an essential internal competitive advantage a business entity that is not only tactical, but also strategic in nature. This is a set of measures that are used not to rescue, but to ensure stable and reliable business development; it is a strategic investment in the reliability and quality of management, in the economic security of the enterprise.
Similar information.
Russia is one of the participants in the world economic relations and in equally subject to the influence of global economic processes, including global risks. Today, it is important not only to have an idea of current trends development of the world economy, learn how to quantify their impact, but also develop tools to control the impact of risks on national economies.
At the Financial University under the Government Russian Federation paid Special attention research of global imbalances, analysis of risks and their impact on the level of economic security. results scientific research are used by the Department of Risk Analysis and Economic Security to improve the training of bachelors in specialties in the field of ensuring the security of the national economy.
One of the areas of training is the ability to assess the impact of global imbalances and external economic risks on the Russian economy. The results of scientific research carried out in 2014 within the framework of the state order of the Financial University made it possible to develop and integrate into the educational process a number of methods aimed at solving this problem.
The novelty of the obtained results of the assessment of global risks lies in the fact that
- the methodology for assessing the impact of global imbalances makes it possible to expand the view of global imbalances and risks as contradictions of world development, to compare them with the goals of sustainable development and assess the vulnerability of the national economy, which makes it possible to take into account global development trends, predict the formation of global imbalances, as well as the risks and crisis phenomena they generate;
- a methodology for the integral assessment of global risks has been developed, which excludes the ambiguity of assessments obtained by the methodology of the World Economic Forum (WEF);
- an express method is proposed for assessing the vulnerability of the Russian economy to external economic, including financial, risks, their impact on the Russian economy and the level of its economic security.
In general, the results obtained allow us to propose an integrated approach to the development of proposals for taking into account the impact of imbalances on the country's economy, the formation in Russia of a permanent system for identifying, studying, forecasting, assessing external economic risks and their impact on the level of its economic security.
An integrated approach to assessing the impact of global risks
A comprehensive approach to assessing the impact of global risks on the Russian economy includes:
- determination of the role and place of global imbalances, as well as their relationship with global risks, taking into account the specifics of Russia;
- assessment of the significance of global risks and their ranking;
- determination of the list of external economic risks that may have the greatest impact on the national economy;
- assessment of the interaction and mutual influence of external economic risks with other global risks in order to identify the systemic nature of the impact of the analyzed risks on the national economy;
- technology for the development of risks into threats to economic security;
- assessment of the vulnerability of the Russian economy to external economic risks;
- identification of the nature and degree of influence of external economic risks on the level of economic security of Russia.
Global imbalances in a broad sense are a manifestation of the dialectical contradictions of world development between goals and objectives modern society and the prevailing instruments and mechanisms of a market economy.
Global imbalances cover such areas public life as economics, ecology, geopolitics, social and technological processes.
Examples of economic global imbalances:
- critical economic inequality of countries and regions of the world;
- imbalance between the real economy, international trade, capital flows and excessive growth in financial transactions of a speculative nature;
- imbalance between investing, saving and saving;
- imbalance of limited resources with their uneven distribution and distribution, etc.
It is important to note that global imbalances are qualitative in nature and cannot always be quantified. Their study is necessary in order to better understand the essence of the ongoing processes, predict trends in world development, the development of the world economy and possible consequences their influences.
To obtain an assessment, it is important to take into account the relationship between global imbalances and risks, which is that imbalances are sources of risks. With a weak governance system, risks can develop into threats to economic security. In the context of increasing openness, interdependence and interaction of national economies, risks become systemic.
Within the framework of the WEF, methods for quantitative assessment of global risks have been developed, constantly improved and used, which are based on a survey of a large number of experts on the research topic. Research results are published annually in the WEF Global Risk Reviews.
However, the estimates obtained by the WEF methods do not correctly reflect the peculiarities of the Russian economy, which does not allow their direct use to assess the impact of global risks on the Russian economy and the level of its economic security.
The main features of global risks are manifested in the following:
- a trend of steady growth in the number of risks, the likelihood of occurrence and the degree of their influence has formed;
- the growth of mutual influence and interaction of risks gives the impact a systemic character;
- the ability of an individual state or economic entity to control and manage global risks alone is limited;
- global risks are formed and analyzed at the global level, and their influence is manifested at the level of a specific economy, and the degree of influence of the same global risk on different economies is not the same.
These features impose special requirements on the construction of risk monitoring systems and the formation of a database, allowing the development of effective measures on the prevention and management of risks.
An integrated approach allows you to eliminate a number of disadvantages inherent in the WEF methods, for example, such as:
- ambiguity of risk assessments. Each risk, in accordance with the expert method of the WEF, has two assessments - the probability of occurrence and the degree of influence, which is the reason for the ambiguity in ranking risks according to their degree of significance;
- the lack of taking into account the socio-economic indicators of the assessed country and the features of its economic development when assessing the impact of risk on the national economy;
- imperfection of methods for assessing the vulnerability of the national economy to the impact of risks.
Assessment of the impact of global risks on the Russian economy and the level of its economic security
To assess the impact of global risks on the Russian economy and the level of its economic security, statistical data taken from the WEF Report on Global Risks 2014 were used.Using the WEF methodology, more than 700 experts from different countries and regions of the world, assessed the likelihood of occurrence and the degree of influence of risks by point system from 1 (least significant) to 7 (most significant) points. A sample of the Top 10 most significant global risks and their assessments are presented in Table 1.
Table 1 - Top 10 global risks.
| Top 10 global crises of 2014 | Probability of occurrence | The degree of influence |
|
| 1 | |||
| 2 | |||
| 3 | Water supply crisis | ||
| 4 | High income inequality | ||
| 5 | |||
| 6 | |||
| 7 | |||
| 8 | Food crisis | ||
| 9 | |||
| 10 | |||
| 11 | Cyberattacks |
Source: WEF Global Risk Report 2014.
As noted earlier, one of the drawbacks of the expert approach used to assess risks by the researchers of the World Economic Forum is the dual nature of assessments, namely, separate assessments of the likelihood of occurrence and the degree of impact of risks, which does not allow obtaining an unambiguous picture of global risks.
To obtain unambiguous estimates, the authors proposed and applied the method of integral risk assessment, using the multiplication of expert estimates for each risk. In this case, the weights of the values of the probability of occurrence and the degree of influence for each risk are taken equal to 1. The results of processing the primary data, in accordance with the method of integral assessments, are presented in Table 2. For comparison, the data of the integral risk assessment are presented, according to 2013 data.
Table 2 - Table of integral risk assessments for 2013 and 2014 *
| TOP-10 global crises of 2014 | Probability of occurrence | The degree of influence | ||||
Place (points) |
||||||
| 1 | Budget Crises in Leading Economies | |||||
| 2 | Structurally high unemployment / underemployment | |||||
| 3 | Water supply crisis | |||||
| 4 | High income inequality | |||||
| 5 | Lack of readiness to adapt and mitigate the effects of climate change | |||||
| 6 | Extreme natural phenomena, tsunamis, fires, ... | |||||
| 7 | Global governance challenges | |||||
| 8 | Food crisis | |||||
| 9 | Disruption of basic financial mechanisms / institutions | |||||
| 10 | Political and social instability | |||||
| 11 | Cyberattacks | |||||
* after processing the initial data;
** _U_ - growth of the place of the indicator; _D_ - decrease in the place of the indicator.
Source: authors, 2014.
Analysis of the results, taking into account the integral risk assessment, shows that additional processing leads to a change in the composition and significance of global risks and allows us to draw the following conclusions:
- the risk of income inequality, accompanied by an increase in the level of poverty and misery, is determined by experts as the most significant, and consistently ranks 1st;
- some risks are distinguished by high dynamics of changes in significance assessments. The risks of extreme weather events (tsunamis, tornadoes, earthquakes, fires) received such a high rating, which took 2nd place despite the fact that they were not included in the list of TOP-10 global risks in 2013. A similar situation takes place with the risks of cyber attacks and cybercrime, which ranked 7th, as well as the risks of political and social instability, which ranked 10th, respectively;
- the risk of structural imbalances and the level of unemployment (underemployment) according to the results of the integral assessment showed an increase in importance and moved from 9th to 3rd place;
- the risk of not being ready to take into account climate change and adapt to these changes has risen one level and took 4th place;
- retained their place the risk of disruption of the functioning of the main financial mechanisms and institutions, as well as the risk of food crises. This is evidence that the degree of impact and likelihood of these risks remains at the same level, and the measures taken by the international community are insufficient;
- some of the risks, which the experts preferred in 2013, in 2014, taking into account the integral assessment, are characterized as less significant. This is the risk of budget crises (from 2nd to 5th place), the risk of water supply crises and mismanagement water resources(dropped from 3rd to 6th place), and the risk of violation of global governance did not enter the Top 10, having dropped from 7th to 11th place. On the contrary, this may indicate a positive assessment of the efforts of international regulators aimed at increasing the role and importance of international control over risks, budget crises and the activities of financial institutions.
The final results of the integral assessment and distribution of global crises in 2014 are presented in Table 3.
Table 3 - Summary table of integrated assessments of global risks
| A place | Top 10 global crises of 2014 | Probability of occurrence | The degree of influence | Integral assessment-2014 * |
High income inequality | ||||
Extreme natural phenomena, tsunamis, fires, ... | ||||
Structurally high unemployment / underemployment | ||||
Lack of readiness to adapt and mitigate the effects of climate change | ||||
Budget Crises in Leading Economies | ||||
Water supply crisis | ||||
Cyberattacks | ||||
Food crisis | ||||
Disruption of basic financial mechanisms / institutions | ||||
Political and social instability |
Thus, the Top 10 most significant global risks in 2014 will look somewhat different. So the risk of high income inequality rose from 4th place to 1st, and the risk of budget crises in the world's leading economies dropped from 1st to 5th place. This is consistent with the objective circumstances of 2014 before the start of the sanctions war. The correctness of the result of the integral assessment was confirmed in the WEF Review of the Global Agenda, published on November 7, 2014, where the problem of income inequality ranks first.
The Top 10 global risks include 4 risks that relate to external economic risks:
- the risk of high income inequality;
- the risk of structural imbalance and unemployment (underemployment);
- the risk of budget crises in the world's leading economies;
- the risk of disruption to the functioning of the main financial mechanisms and institutions.
External economic risks will be considered as the initial data for further research in order to assess their impact on the Russian economy and the level of its economic security.
As noted earlier, another drawback of the methods used in the WEF research is the incomplete consideration of the peculiarities of the national economy, which leads to the fact that certain risks are assessed by experts as insignificant, while for Russia they have extremely high essential and should be included in the lists of significant risks. Examples of such risks are the risks of a structural imbalance of the Russian economy and its commodity markets, the risk of uncertainty in asset prices, primarily for energy carriers, a low level of industrial production and excessive dependence on imported goods due to the inability of the Russian economy to meet domestic demand. This emphasizes the need to develop national methods for assessing risks and vulnerability of the Russian economy to them.
To assess Russia's vulnerability to the impact of global risks, an express method has been developed and applied, which makes it possible to obtain a comparative assessment of the impact of external economic risk on the Russian economy and the level of its economic security. An express methodology for assessing the vulnerability of the national economy to global risks was developed on the basis of target indicators of economic policy and their comparison with indicators of Russia's economic security and their threshold values, which are presented in Table 4.
Table 4 - Comparison of the actual and forecast indicators of the target indicators of the economic policy of Russia (from the documents of the President and the Government of the Russian Federation) with the threshold values of indicators of economic security
| Indicators | Targets and targets reflecting economic policy states | Economic security thresholds | 2012 r. | 2016 forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development |
| 1. In the real economy | ||||
| Average annual GDP growth rate% | ||||
| Investment in fixed assets as% of GDP | Up to 25% by 2015 and up to 27% by 2018, 30-40% by 2020 | |||
| Share of production of machinery and equipment, electrical equipment, transport and transport equipment in the total volume of products shipped,% | An increase in the share of products of high-tech and knowledge-intensive industries in GDP by 2018 by 1.3 times against 2011. | 25-30 to the shipped products | ||
| Grain harvest, million tons | ||||
| Share of shipped innovative products in the total volume of industry,% | ||||
| 2. In the social sphere | ||||
| The ratio of the number of people of retirement and working age | ||||
| Share of the population with incomes below the subsistence level | Overcoming poverty, increasing wages by 2018 by 1.5 times | |||
| Funds ratio (the ratio of incomes of 10% of high-income and 10% of low-income strata of the population, times | Overcoming the property stratification of the population | |||
| The share of the middle class in the entire population,% | ||||
| The ratio of the average pension to the average salary,% | ||||
| Unemployment rate according to ILO methodology | Overcoming unemployment | |||
| Housing size per inhabitant, sq. M | By 2020, 60% of those wishing to improve their living conditions will receive housing | |||
| Commissioning of housing, million sq. M | ||||
| 3. In the monetary and financial sphere | ||||
| The size of gold and foreign exchange reserves, end of December, billions of dollars | ||||
| Annual inflation rate,% | ||||
| The level of monetization of the economy (money supply M2 at the end of the year in% of GDP) | ||||
| Share of defaults in the total volume of consumer and mortgage loans as a% of the total volume of loans | No more than 10 | |||
| Federal budget deficit,% of GDP | Overcoming the deficit by 2015 | |||
| Ratio of the size of public external and internal debt to GDP,% | No more than 60 | |||
| 4. In the foreign economic sphere | ||||
| The share of imported food in all food resources,% | Ensure food security | |||
| Trade balance,% of GDP |
Sources: Senchagov V.K., 2014
2nd column - Messages of the President of the Russian Federation to the Federal Assembly of December 2012 and December 2013 and his Decrees of May 7, 2012, 4th column - Statistical reference books: "Socio-economic situation of the Russian Federation" 2013. p. 84, 168; Russia in Figures 2013 p. 33, 37, 41, 91, 102, 129, 144, 240, 284, 397, 496, 532. *) 2011
Using the express methodology, the vulnerability of the Russian economy to external economic risks was assessed, namely:
- the risk of high income inequality;
- the risk of structural imbalance and unemployment (underemployment);
- the risk of a budget crisis in the world's leading economies;
- the risk of disruption to the functioning of the main financial mechanisms and institutions.
Vulnerability assessment is carried out by comparing global risk with indicators of socio-economic development of Russia and threshold values that determine the level of economic security. This makes it possible to assess the vulnerability of the socio-economic system of Russia to global risks. It is obvious that the vulnerability of the national economy and the level of its economic security are in inversely proportional relationship: the higher the vulnerability, the lower the level of economic security, and vice versa.
The scale for assessing the vulnerability of the Russian economy based on comparing risk with target indicators of socio-economic policy and threshold values of indicators of economic security includes three assessments:
- high vulnerability;
- medium vulnerability;
- low vulnerability.
High vulnerability occurs when, when comparing global risk with the value of the corresponding target indicator of socio-economic policy, the current value of this indicator is below its threshold value.
Medium vulnerability characterizes the situation when the value of the target indicator corresponds to the threshold value.
Low vulnerability takes place when the value of the target indicator of socio-economic development exceeds the threshold value established for this indicator.
The results of assessing the vulnerability of the Russian economy are presented in Table 5.
The results of assessing the vulnerability of the Russian economy show its "High vulnerability" to the risk of income inequality and structural imbalance and "Low vulnerability" to budget crises of leading economies and disruption of the functioning of the main financial institutions and mechanisms.
At the second stage, the impact of external economic risk on the level of Russia's economic security is assessed. Assessment of the impact of external economic risk on the level of economic security of the country is carried out according to the principle:
- “High vulnerability” to the influence of external risk leads to a decrease in the level of economic security;
- “Medium vulnerability” does not change the level of economic security;
- “Low vulnerability” indicates an increase in the level of economic security.
Thus, the study carried out using the proposed integrated approach allows you to get a reasoned assessment of the vulnerability of the Russian economy to external economic risks and the degree of the impact on the level of economic security.
The disadvantage of using the proposed express methodology for assessing national vulnerability is that not all existing global risks are currently able to compare the target and the threshold value of economic security. In this regard, in the future, it is necessary to continue work on improving the express methodology, which will expand the scope of application and make it suitable for assessing a wide range of global risks.
In addition, it should be borne in mind that the degree of influence of global risk does not remain constant. WEF research shows that the composition of global risks, the likelihood of their occurrence and the degree of impact are changing. At the same time, the speed of these changes increases due to the growth of uncertainty and the degree of interconnectedness of the processes taking place in the hyper-connected world.
The picture of global and national risks is extremely dynamic, which implies the need to introduce constant monitoring of changes in all sectors of the global and national economy.
In this regard, the development of an integrated approach and the inclusion of a methodology for taking into account the interconnectedness of risks is of particular importance.
A partial analysis of the mutual influence and interaction of global risks, carried out according to the WEF methodology, allows us to cite the following relationships between the most significant external economic risks for Russia, identified as a result of our analysis, with other global risks.
The risk of high income inequality is correlated with such global risks as:
- dissatisfaction with globalization;
- structure and level of unemployment (underemployment);
- corruption;
- violation of global governance;
- population growth and territorial and demographic imbalances.
The risk of structural imbalance and unemployment (underemployment) are interconnected with global risks, which include:
- income inequality;
- dissatisfaction with globalization;
- population aging;
- budget deficits;
- unmanaged migration.
However, methods of taking into account the interconnectedness of risks and including them in assessing the impact of this interconnection on the vulnerability of the national economy and the level of economic security of Russia should be developed.
Approaches to managing the impact of global risks on the Russian economy
The proposed approach to assessing the impact of global imbalances and risks on the Russian economy and the level of its economic security using a system of targets and threshold values of economic security can be used to create in Russia a permanent system for identifying, studying, predicting, assessing and accounting for the impact of imbalances on economic system country and the level of its economic security.
In this system, it is advisable to provide two subsystems:
- subsystem for monitoring and forecasting risks;
- analysis and response subsystem.
Monitoring and forecasting global risks
Organization of monitoring of global risks and the possibility of transforming them into risks to the economic security of Russia is a necessary and urgent task.
To implement the proposed subsystem, it is necessary to provide for the creation of a permanent working group under the Security Council of the Russian Federation or the Ministry of Economic Development, which will be entrusted with leading the organizational and methodological work on monitoring global risks and assessing their impact on the Russian economy. Scientific and methodological support for the activities of the working group can be provided by the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation.
There is no permanent system for monitoring and forecasting external and internal risks in Russia. Existing studies in this area differ by departmental nature, reflect, as a rule, the risks of enterprises and express the personal opinion of the authors of the study, which makes them hardly suitable for use in order to form a unified risk management system in the interests of the state and any interested persons and organizations in order to manage risks as in the private sector and for the production public policy in the field of reducing uncertainty and countering threats in the Russian economy.
The system for monitoring and forecasting risks should include an external and internal level in order to monitor global risks as functions external from the standpoint of the national economy, as well as identify, assess, analyze internal risks, which will allow implementing an integrated approach and treating the Russian economy as open system in conditions of the impact on it of the entire totality of external and internal threats.
The fundamentals of the concept of comprehensive monitoring of the risks of the national economy presuppose the following functions:
- monitoring and forecasting global (external) risks;
- monitoring and forecasting internal risks of the national economy;
- identification and assessment of the relationship between global (external) risks and the degree of their systemic nature;
- identification and assessment of the relationship between internal risks of the national economy and the degree of their systemic nature;
- identification and assessment of the relationship between global (external) and internal risks of the national economy, taking into account their mutual influence and interaction;
- assessing the vulnerability of the national economy;
- assessment of the security of the national economy, taking into account the interaction and mutual influence of external and internal risks.
The analysis and response subsystem involves the creation of a permanent body (monitoring and analysis), which will become the center of methodological and research work on the collection, synthesis, analysis and preparation of reports on global changes in the world economy from the standpoint of risks and opportunities that affect the Russian economy, and the development of recommendations for both government bodies and private structures of proposals for risk management by accepting, warning, transferring the impact of risks and the development of action plans to overcome the consequences of the implementation of threats to the economic security of Russia.
The implementation of an integrated approach to the analysis and management of external and internal risks will increase the security of the socio-economic system of Russia from the emergence of crises due to the impact of global processes, taking into account the state and capabilities of the national economy.
Work program of the discipline "Global risks and their impact on the level of economic security of Russia", 2015.
The data obtained as a result of the WEF research does not take into account the changes in the economic situation in the world and in Russia, which have arisen in connection with the imposition of sanctions and geopolitical processes in Ukraine.