Summary: World population. Age and sex structure of the world's population. Ethnic composition of the world's population

World population geography

4. Ethnic composition of the world's population

5. Geography of religions. Three world religions

6. The main branches of Christianity - Catholicism, Orthodoxy and Protestantism

1. Number and reproduction of the population

Population geography studies the size, structure and distribution of the population considered in the process of social reproduction and interaction with the natural environment. Recently, two directions have been traced in the geography of the population. The first is geodemographic, which studies the size and structure of the population, the main demographic indicators (mortality, fertility, life expectancy) and population reproduction, the demographic situation and demographic policy in the world, individual regions and countries. The second is actually geographic, which studies the general geographic picture of the distribution of the population in the world, individual regions and countries, and in particular the geography of settlement and populated areas. In this direction, geo-urban studies have received the greatest development.

Throughout the history of mankind, the population has grown very slowly. The acceleration in population growth began in the period of modern history, especially in the 20th century. Currently, the annual population growth is about 90 million people. At the end of the 90s. the world's population was 6 billion. But in different regions of the world, the population grows unevenly. This is due to the different nature of population reproduction.

Reproduction of the population is understood as the totality of the processes of birth rate, mortality and natural growth, which ensure the continuous renewal and change of human generations. Reproduction is influenced by the socio-economic living conditions of people, relationships between people and relationships in the family.

Currently, there are two types of reproduction. The first type is characterized by relatively low fertility, mortality and natural growth rates. This type is typical for economically developed countries, where natural growth is either very low, or natural population decline prevails. Demographers call this phenomenon depopulation (demographic crisis). The second type of reproduction is characterized by high birth rates and natural population growth. This type is typical for developing countries, where the gaining of independence led to a sharp decrease in mortality, and the birth rate remained at the same level.

At the end of the XX century. The highest fertility and natural increase rates were observed in Kenya, where the birth rate was 54 people per thousand, and the natural increase was 44 people. This phenomenon of rapid population growth in countries of the second type of reproduction is called a population explosion. Currently, such countries account for more than 3/4 of the world's population. The absolute annual increase is 85 million people, i.e. developing countries already have and will have a decisive impact on the size and reproduction of the world's population. Under these conditions, most countries strive to manage population reproduction by pursuing a demographic policy. Demographic policy is a system of administrative, economic, propaganda and other measures, with the help of which the state influences the natural movement of the population in the directions it desires.

In countries of the first type of reproduction, demographic policy is aimed at increasing the birth rate and natural increase (countries Western Europe, Russia, etc.); in countries of the second type of reproduction - to reduce the birth rate and natural growth (India, China, etc.).

An important scientific basis conducting demographic policy is the theory of demographic transition, which explains the sequence of changes in demographic processes. The scheme of such a transition includes four successive stages. The first stage covered almost the entire history of mankind. It is characterized by high birth and death rates and, accordingly, a very low natural increase. The second stage is characterized by a sharp reduction in mortality while maintaining the traditionally high birth rate. The third stage is characterized by the persistence of low mortality rates, and the birth rate begins to decline, but slightly exceeds the mortality rate, providing a moderate expanded reproduction and population growth. In the transition to the fourth stage, the birth and death rates coincide. This means a transition to population stabilization.

Recently, indicators characterizing the quality of the population have become increasingly important in science and practice. This is a complex concept that takes into account economic (employment, income, calorie intake), social (level of health care, security of citizens, development of democratic institutions), cultural (level of literacy, provision of cultural institutions, printed materials), ecological (state of the environment) and other conditions. people's lives.

One of the most important generalizing indicators of the state of health of a nation is the indicator of average life expectancy. At the end of the XX century. the average for the world was 66 years (63 for men and 68 for women). Another important indicator of the quality of life of the population is the level of literacy.

2. Composition and structure of the population

1. By sex composition the country's population is divided into three groups. The first group of countries where the number of men and women is the same (countries in Africa and Latin America). The second group of countries where the number of women exceeds the male population (more than half of the countries of the world, especially the countries of North America). This is due to two reasons: the longer average life expectancy of women and the loss of the male population during the First and Second World Wars. The third group is where the number of men prevails over the number of women (Asian countries, India, China).

2. By age composition... Age is the main criterion in determining the main productive part of the population - labor resources. The degree of their involvement in production is evidenced by the indicator of the economically active population. The types of age composition correspond to the types of reproduction. Countries of the first type of reproduction are characterized by a low proportion of children of children and a high proportion of elderly people. In Europe, children under the age of 14 make up 24%, people aged 15-59 - about 59%, the elderly - about 17%. This structure is called an aging nation... Countries of the second type of reproduction are characterized by a high proportion of children and a low proportion of the elderly. For example, in African countries, children under 14 years old make up 44%, the elderly - 5%. This population structure is called rejuvenation of the nation .

3. Ethnolinguistic composition... In total, there are 3-4 thousand peoples or ethnic groups in the world. Established, stable communities of people are called ethnic groups. The classification of ethnic groups is carried out according to their numbers. The overwhelming majority of peoples are small. There are about 310 peoples with more than 1 million people in the world, but they make up 96% of the world's population. More than 100 million people comprise 7 peoples: Chinese, Hindo-Indus, US Americans, Russians, Brazilians, Japanese and Bengalis. In the structure of the population, linguistic and linguistic classification is also distinguished. This classification allows you to unite peoples in language groups with related languages. The biggest language family- Indo-European. The languages of this family are spoken by more than 150 peoples of the world, with a total number of 2.5 billion people. Over 1 billion people speak the language of the Sino-Tibetan language family. Depending on the extent to which national borders coincide with political ones, mono-national states (Western Europe, Latin America) and multinational states (India, Russia) appear.

4. By religious composition there are three world religions: Christianity (profess about 1 billion people), Islam, or Islam (about 800 million people), and Buddhism (about 200 million people). Recently, Hinduism (India) and Shintoism (Japan) have been distinguished into separate religions.

5. By the level of education of the population distinguish countries with a high level of education and countries with a low level of education. At the beginning of the 90s. XX century. 27% of the world's population was illiterate. Of this number, 4% is in developed countries, and 96% in developing countries. The level of education has a huge impact on the quality of life of the population.

3. Accommodation and migration of the population

On the globe, the population is unevenly distributed. About 70% of the population lives on 7% of the earth's land area. About half of all inhabited land has an average population density of less than 5 people. per km 2; 15% of the land area is areas that have not been explored by people at all. The distribution of the population is influenced by several factors: natural conditions, employment in agriculture and attraction to transport and trade routes.

There is a constant process of population movement, or migration, in the world. It can be internal or external. External migration originated in ancient times and until the mid-1920s. XX century the main centers of world migration were Europe and Asia. Currently, the USA, Latin America and Australia have become hotbeds of migration. In the second half of the XX century. appeared new form world migration "brain drain". The brain drain is especially negative for developing countries.

Internal migration is the movement of the population from rural areas to cities, colonization and development of new lands.

POPULATION NUMBER AND DYNAMICS

Demography(from greek demos- people and grapho- I write) - the science of the laws of population reproduction, which studies its size, natural growth, age and sex composition, etc.

The scientific theory of population considers the population involved in labor as the main productive force of society, the basis of all social production. Constantly interacting with nature (geographic environment), the population plays an active role in its transformation. At the same time, the population also acts as the main consumer of all created material goods. This is why the population is one of the important factors development of each country, and indeed of all mankind.

Table 1. Population of the planet since 1000

Table 2. Growth of the world population in 1950-2001.

Year	Total, million people	Annual growth, million people	Year	Total, million people	Annual growth, million people
1950	2527	37	1981	4533	80
1955	2779	53	1982	4614	81
1960	3060	41	1983	4695	80
1965	3345	70	1984	4775	81
1966	3414	69	1985	4856	83
1967	3484	71	1986	4941	86
1968	3355	74	1987	5029	87
1969	3629	75	1988	5117	86
1970	3724	78	1989	5205	87
1971	3782	77	1990	5295	88
1972	3859	77	1991	5381	83
1973	3962	76	1992	5469	81
1974	4012	74	1993	5556	80
1975	4086	72	1994	5644	80
1976	4159	73	1995	5734	78
1977	4131	72	1996	5811	77
1978	4301	75	1997	5881	71
1979	4380	76	1998	5952	71
1980	4457	76	1999	6020	68
			2000	6091	71

In 1987, the world's population reached 5 million, and already in 1999 on October 12, it exceeded 6 million.

Table 3. World population by country groups.

Table 4. The share of selected groups of countries in the world population, world GDP and world exports of goods and services in 2000, in%

	World population	World GDP *	World export
Industrialized countries	15,4	57,1	75,7
G7 countries	11,5	45,4	47,7
The EU	6,2	20	36
Developing countries	77,9	37	20
Africa	12,3	3,2	2,1
Asia	57,1	25,5	13,4
Latin America	8,5	8,3	4,5
Countries with economies in transition	6,7	5,9	4,3
CIS	4,8	3,6	2,2
CEE	1,9	2,3	2,1
For reference:	6100 million people	$ 44550 billion	$ 7650 billion
* Based on purchasing power parity of currencies

Table 5. Population of the largest countries of the world (million people).

Country	Number of inhabitants in 1990, million people	Country	Number of inhabitants in 2000, million people
China	1120	China	1284
India	830	India	1010
Soviet Union	289	USA	281
USA	250	Indonesia	212
Indonesia	180	Brazil	170
Brazil	150	Pakistan	238,4
Japan	124	Russia	230,3
Pakistan	112	Bangladesh	196,1
Bangladesh	112	Japan	138,5
Nigeria	90	Nigeria	121,6
Mexico	86	Mexico	121,6
FRG	80	FRG	121,6
Vietnam	68	Vietnam	121,6
Philippines	60	Philippines	121,6
Turkey	59	Iran	121,6
Italy	58	Egypt	121,6
Thailand	58	Turkey	121,6
Great Britain	57	Ethiopia	121,6
France	56	Thailand	121,6
Ukraine	52	France	121,6
Commentary on Table 21. B early XXI century, the number of Russia decreased to 144.1 million people. (data as of 01.10.2001), as a result of which she skipped ahead of Pakistan.

Table 6. Forecast of the population of the Earth for 2025

The whole world, regions	Population, million people	The whole world, regions	Population, million people
The whole world	7825	Africa	1300
Economically developed country	1215	North America	365
Developing	6610	Latin America	695
CIS	290	Australia	40
Overseas Europe	505
Overseas asia	4630

Table 7. Forecast of the number of inhabitants in the twenty largest countries by population in the world for 2025

Country	Population, million people	Country	Population, million people
China	1490	Japan	120
India	1330	Ethiopia	115
USA	325	Vietnam	110
Indonesia	275	Philippines	110
Pakistan	265	Congo	105
Brazil	220	Iran	95
Nigeria	185	Egypt	95
Bangladesh	180	Turkey	88
Russia	138	FRG	80
Mexico	130	Thailand	73

GROWTH RATE

Population growth rate shows the percentage increase in the population in this year in comparison with any earlier period (most often with the previous year, called the base year).

Doubling time- the time during which the population doubles.

Table 8. Growth rates (in%) and doubling time (in years) of the population.

Period	Peace	Africa	Latin. America	North. America	Asia	Europe	Oceania	Former. the USSR
1965-1970	2,06	2,64	2,6	1,13	2,44	0,66	1,97	1,00
1980-1995	1,74	2,99	2,06	0,82	1,87	0,25	1,48	0,78
2020-2025	0,99	1,90	1,12	0,34	0,89	0,05	0,76	0,47
Time Doubling	71	27	38	63	50	253	63	99

Minimum doubling time: Brunei (11), Qatar (13), United Arab Emirates (13).
Maximum doubling time: Bulgaria, Ireland, Hungary (1000 each),
Belgium, Poland, Falkland Islands, Puerto Rico (693 each).
As can be seen from the table, in different regions of the world the population today is growing unevenly: in some more slowly, in others faster, and in others very quickly. This is due to the different nature of its reproduction.

REPRODUCTION OF THE POPULATION

Reproduction (natural movement) of the population- a set of processes of fertility, mortality and natural growth, which ensures the continuous renewal and change of human generations. Or: population reproduction is the process of generational change as a result of natural (growth) movement.

Key demographic indicators

Absolute indicators:

natural growth- the difference between the number of births and deaths;
mechanical gain- the difference between the number of immigrants and emigrants.

Relative:

fertility rate- the ratio of the total number of births in the country per year to the total population of the country, measured in thousands (i.e., the number of births per thousand inhabitants;
mortality rate- the ratio of the total number of deaths in the country per year to the population of the country, measured in thousands (i.e., the number of deaths per thousand inhabitants);
natural growth rate- the difference between the birth rate and the death rate.

These ratios are measured in ppm (‰), but can be measured in percent (%), i.e. calculations in this case are made per 100 inhabitants.

"Formula" of reproduction- type of record of relative demographic indicators: fertility rate - mortality rate = rate of natural increase.

Table 9. Demographic indicators of reproduction at the beginning of the 90s (in ‰).

Fertility, mortality, natural population growth are basically biological processes. But, nevertheless, the decisive influence on them is exerted by the socio-economic conditions of life of people, as well as the relationship between them in society and in the family.

The mortality rate depends, first of all, on the material living conditions of people: nutrition, sanitary and hygienic conditions of work and life, on the development of health care.

The birth rate also depends on the socio-economic structure of society, on the living conditions of people. But this dependence is much more complex and contradictory, causing a lot of controversy in science. Most scientists associate the decline in the birth rate with the growth of cities and the spread of urban lifestyles, which leads to an increasing involvement of women in industrial and social activities, an increase in the duration of schooling for children and a general increase in the "price of a child." Developed pension provision also leads to a decrease in the birth rate, because the role of the child as a "walking pension" is being reduced to naught. In contrast, rural lifestyles contribute to high fertility because in rural areas, a child from 9-10 years old is an extra labor force. In poor countries, where the social sphere is poorly developed, the child is the main breadwinner for elderly parents. A high birth rate is also typical for Muslim countries, where the traditions of a large family are supported by religion.

Wars, primarily world wars, have a very large negative impact on the reproduction of the population, which lead to huge human losses, both as a result of direct hostilities, and as a result of the spread of hunger and disease, and the rupture of family ties.

The growth of such unfavorable phenomena as crime, industrial injuries, natural and man-made disasters, accidents, deterioration of the quality of the environment leads to an increase in mortality.

TYPES OF POPULATION REPRODUCTION

In its most simplified form, we can talk about two types of population reproduction.

The first type of population reproduction. Demographic crisis. The first type of population reproduction (synonyms: demographic "winter", modern or rational type of reproduction) is characterized by low birth rates, mortality and, accordingly, natural growth. It spread primarily in the economic developed countries where the proportion of elderly and old people is constantly growing; this in itself lowers the birth rate and increases the death rate.

The decline in the birth rate in industrialized countries is usually associated with the spread of an urban lifestyle, in which children are a "burden" for their parents. In industrial production, the service sector requires highly qualified personnel. The consequence of this is the need for long-term studies, lasting up to 21-23 years. The decision to have a second or third child is strongly influenced by the woman's high involvement in the labor process, her desire to make a career, to be financially independent.

But even among the countries of the first type of population reproduction, three subgroups can be distinguished.

First, these are countries with an average annual natural increase of the population of 0.5-1% (or 5-10 people per 1000 inhabitants, or 5-10 ‰). In such countries, examples of which are the United States, Canada, Australia, a fairly significant increase in population is provided.

This requires that about half of all families have two children, and half - three. Over time, two children "replace" their parents, and the third not only covers the loss from diseases, accidents, etc. and "compensates" for the absence of offspring in childless, but also provides a sufficient overall increase.

Secondly, these are countries with "zero" or close to it natural growth. Such an increase (for example, in Italy, Great Britain, Poland) no longer ensures expanded reproduction of the population, which usually stabilizes at the achieved level.

table 10 . European countries with negative natural population growth in 2000

Country	Natural increase,% o	Country	Natural increase,% o
Spain		Sweden
Switzerland		Romania
Greece		Hungary
Austria		Estonia
Italy		Latvia
Czech		Belarus
Slovenia		Russia
Lithuania		Bulgaria
Germany		Ukraine

Thirdly, these are countries with negative natural growth, that is, those where the death rate exceeds the birth rate. As a result, the number of their inhabitants not only does not grow, but even decreases. Demographers call this phenomenon depopulation(or demographic crisis).

It is most typical for Europe, where already a dozen and a half countries (Belarus, Ukraine, Hungary, Bulgaria, Germany, etc.) have a negative natural increase. Recently, Russia has also become one of such countries.

The transition from the large family characteristic of old Russia to the small one took place in our country even during the existence of the Soviet Union. But in the 90s. First of all, with the emergence of a deep socio-economic crisis, a real "collapse" of indicators of natural population growth began.

In the 90s. as a result of a sharp decline in the birth rate and an increase in mortality, the population of Russia should have decreased by several million people. And only thanks to the massive influx of migrants from other CIS countries and the Baltic countries, which more than 1/3 compensated for this decrease, the decline in the population turned out to be not so great. The birth rate in Russia (less than 9 people per 1000 inhabitants) and in the late 90s. remains one of the lowest in the world.

So, in general, for the economically developed countries of the world (their average natural growth rate is 0.4 ‰), the so-called "rational" or "modern" type of population reproduction is characteristic, basically corresponding to the urban image and the high standard of living of their population. But this does not exclude the fact that whole line European countries are experiencing a demographic crisis that negatively affects or may affect their development.

The second type of population reproduction. "Population explosion". For the second type of population reproduction (synonyms: demographic "winter"), high and very high fertility and natural growth rates and relatively low mortality rates are typical. It is typical primarily for developing countries.

Table 11. Developing countries with the highest natural population growth in 1995-2000.

3 Tasks: 9 Tests: 1

Leading ideas: Population is the basis of the material life of society, an active element of our planet. People of all races, nations and nationalities are equally capable of participating in material production and in spiritual life.

Basic concepts: demography, growth rates and population growth rates, population reproduction, fertility (fertility rate), mortality (mortality rate), natural growth (natural growth rate), traditional, transitional, modern type of reproduction, population explosion, demographic crisis, demographic policy, migration (emigration, immigration), demographic situation, age and sex structure of the population, age and sex pyramid, EAN, labor resources, employment structure; resettlement and placement of the population; urbanization, agglomeration, megalopolis, race, ethnos, discrimination, apartheid, world and national religions.

Skills and abilities: be able to calculate and apply indicators of reproduction, labor supply (EAN), urbanization, etc. for individual countries and groups of countries, as well as analyze and draw conclusions (compare, generalize, determine the trends and consequences of these trends), read, compare and analyze age and sex pyramids of different countries and groups of countries; using maps of the atlas and other sources to characterize changes in the main indicators for the territory of the world, to characterize the population of the country (region) according to the plan using maps of the atlas.

Country	Natural growth,%O	Country	Natural increase,% o
Yemen		Benin
Somalia		Ghana
Niger		Liberia
Mali		Mauritania
DR Congo		Pakistan

World population geography

1. Number and reproduction of the population

In countries of the first type of reproduction, demographic policy is aimed at increasing the birth rate and natural increase (Western European countries, Russia, etc.); in countries of the second type of reproduction - to reduce the birth rate and natural growth (India, China, etc.).

An important scientific basis for conducting demographic policy is the theory of demographic transition, which explains the sequence of changes in demographic processes. The scheme of such a transition includes four successive stages. The first stage covered almost the entire history of mankind. It is characterized by high birth and death rates and, accordingly, a very low natural increase. The second stage is characterized by a sharp reduction in mortality while maintaining the traditionally high birth rate. The third stage is characterized by the persistence of low mortality rates, and the birth rate begins to decline, but slightly exceeds the mortality rate, providing a moderate expanded reproduction and population growth. In the transition to the fourth stage, the birth and death rates coincide. This means a transition to population stabilization.

2. Composition and structure of the population

3. Ethnolinguistic composition... In total, there are 3-4 thousand peoples or ethnic groups in the world. Established, stable communities of people are called ethnic groups. The classification of ethnic groups is carried out according to their numbers. The overwhelming majority of peoples are small. There are about 310 peoples with more than 1 million people in the world, but they make up 96% of the world's population. More than 100 million people comprise 7 peoples: Chinese, Hindo-Indus, US Americans, Russians, Brazilians, Japanese and Bengalis. In the structure of the population, linguistic and linguistic classification is also distinguished. This classification makes it possible to unite peoples into linguistic groups with related languages. The largest language family is Indo-European. The languages of this family are spoken by more than 150 peoples of the world, with a total number of 2.5 billion people. Over 1 billion people speak the language of the Sino-Tibetan language family. Depending on the extent to which national borders coincide with political ones, mono-national states (Western Europe, Latin America) and multinational states (India, Russia) appear.

3. Accommodation and migration of the population

On the globe, the population is unevenly distributed. About 70% of the population lives on 7% of the earth's land area. About half of all inhabited land has an average population density of less than 5 people. per km2; 15% of the land area is areas that have not been explored by people at all. The distribution of the population is influenced by several factors: natural conditions, employment in agriculture and attraction to transport and trade routes.

There is a constant process of population movement, or migration, in the world. It can be internal or external. External migration originated in ancient times and until the mid-1920s. XX century the main centers of world migration were Europe and Asia. Currently, the USA, Latin America and Australia have become hotbeds of migration. In the second half of the XX century. a new form of world migration “brain drain” has emerged. The brain drain is especially negative for developing countries.

Internal migration is the movement of the population from rural areas to cities, colonization and development of new lands.

At present, the distribution of the population is determined by the geography of cities. When assessing the urban population, the level of urbanization and the rate of urbanization are taken into account. Urbanization is the growth of cities and an increase in the proportion of urban population, as well as the emergence of complex networks and systems of cities.

The urbanization process is studied by a separate branch of the geography of the population - geo-urbanism... It examines the main historical stages of urban development, the main features of the modern urbanization process, the geographical aspects of urbanization and the development of large urbanized zones of the world, the networks and systems of cities, the foundations of city planning and city planning.

Modern urbanization is characterized by three features:

rapid growth of urban population;

concentration of population and economy in big cities;

The "sprawl" of cities and the expansion of their territories.

According to the level of urbanization, countries are divided into three groups. The first group - highly urbanized countries, where the share of the urban population is more than 50% (Russia, Canada, USA, etc.). The second group is medium-urbanized countries, where the share of the urban population is 25-50%. The third group is low-urbanized countries, where the share of the urban population is less than 25%.

Recently, in developing countries, such a phenomenon as the "urban explosion" has been singled out. This is due to the fact that in developing countries urban population is growing rapidly, while in economically developed countries, on the contrary, it begins to decline.

Urbanization has an impact on the environment. 3/4 of the total volume of pollution is associated with the growth of urbanization. Therefore, the authorities and the public of socially developed countries take various measures to protect and improve the urban environment.

4. Ethnic composition of the world's population

1. Humanity is usually divided into three main races:

Caucasoid (countries of Europe, America, South-West Asia, North Africa);

Mongoloid (countries of Central and East Asia, America);

Negroid (most African countries).

There is also an Australoid race, whose representatives are settled in the southeast of Asia, in Oceania and Australia.

30% of the world's population belongs to intermediate racial groups (Ethiopians, Malagasy, Polynesians, etc.). The mixing of races led to the formation of special groups of mestizos, mulattoes and sambo in America.

2. The ethnic composition of the population is the result of a long historical process of mixing and resettlement of representatives of different races and ethnic groups.

Ethnicity (people) - it is an established stable group of people, characterized by a common language, territory, peculiarities of life, culture and ethnic identity.

In total, there are 3-4 thousand ethnic groups in the world. Some of them have turned into nations, others are nationalities, tribes.

Classification of ethnic groups carried out on various grounds, the main of which are the number and language.

In terms of numbers, the peoples of the world are different. The overwhelming majority of peoples are small. Only 310 peoples have more than 1 million people, but they account for about 96% of the world's population.

The largest peoples in the world are:

Chinese (1,120 million people);

Hindus (219 million people);

Americans of the USA (187 million people);

Bengalis (176 million people);

Russians (146 million people);

Brazilians (137 million people);

Japanese (123 million people).

More than 30 million people include the following peoples: Biharians, Punjabis, Mexicans, Germans, Koreans, Italians, Vieta, French, British, Ukrainians, Turks, Poles, etc.

By language, peoples are united into language families, which, in turn, are divided into language groups. In total, there are 20 language families in the world. The largest of them are:

Indo-European, the languages of which are spoken by 150 peoples (about 2.5 billion people). It includes Romance languages (French, Spanish, Portuguese, Italian), Germanic (German, English, Yiddish, Dutch), Slavic (Russian, Polish, Ukrainian), Indo-Aryan (Hindi, "Marathi, Punjabi), Iranian (Persian, Tajik ) and etc.;

Sino-Tibetan, the languages of which are spoken mainly in China, Nepal, Bhutan (over 1 billion people).

The linguistic classification of peoples differs significantly from the national one, since the spread of languages does not coincide with ethnic boundaries. For example, in the former colonies of Spain, Great Britain, France in Africa, Asia, Latin America, the languages of the metropolises are spoken.

Depending on whether ethnic and state borders coincide or not, the countries of the world are divided into uni-national and multinational .

About half of the countries - single-national... These are countries whose state borders coincide with ethnic ones and the main nationality is 90% of the total population. Most of them are in Europe, Latin America, and the Middle East. These countries include Denmark, Sweden, Germany, Poland, Italy, Japan, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, most of Latin America.

Multinational- these are countries within the state borders of which several ethnic groups live. They can be divided into four groups:

with a sharp predominance of one nation in the presence of more or less significant national minorities (Great Britain, France, Spain, China, Mongolia, Turkey, Algeria, Morocco, USA, Australia);

bi-national (Canada, Belgium);

with a complex but ethnically homogeneous ethnic composition (Iran, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Laos);

with a complex and ethnically diverse ethnic composition (Russia, India, Switzerland, Indonesia).

The problem of interethnic relations is currently quite acute. It's connected:

with the actual economic and social inequality of peoples in some developed countries, infringement of the cultural identity of national minorities (Basques in Spain, Corsicans in France, Scots in Great Britain, French-Canadians in Canada);

with the process of uniting related tribes in nationalities, and ethnic groups in a nation in many developing countries (India, Indonesia, Nigeria, Zaire, Sudan);

with the consequences of European colonization, in which the oppression of the indigenous population (Indians, Eskimos, Australian aborigines) persists;

with racial discrimination (South Africa, USA);

with the formation of new states on the territories of the former USSR and the socialist countries of Eastern Europe.

One of the main "hot spots" after the Second World War remains the Middle East, where the Arab-Israeli conflict is not abating.

National controversies often have a religious basis. A striking example is the religious clashes between Catholics and Protestants in Northern Ireland (Ulster).

The problems of interethnic relations lead to grave consequences, their solution is equally important for all states of the world.

5. Geography of religions. Three world religions

The word "religion" is found very often in everyday speech, in scientific texts, in journalism, fiction. This is a set of views of the world, which are most often based on belief in God. Human thought has long sought to understand the phenomenon of religion, its nature, meaning, and essence.

In different periods of history, humanity has sought to express its attitude towards religion and religious beliefs. Today it is important to recognize that religion occupies an important place in the history of the peoples of the world and it is not just belief or disbelief in gods. Religion permeates the life of the peoples of all continents. A person is born and dies with religious rites. Ethics, morality, morality in most countries were of a religious nature. Many cultural achievements are associated with religion: icon painting, architecture, sculpture, painting, etc.

Religion is also politics. Crusaders with the name of God made their campaigns of conquest. The struggle between various religious groups led more than once to bloody wars in the countries of the East.

Each religion is unique and interesting in its own way. There are three world religions. These are Christianity, Buddhism and Islam.

The role of religion in society and in everyday life today different nations stay very big. This also applies to the economically developed countries of the West, where the Church, especially the Catholic Church, acts as a major banker, landowner, influences politics, education, school education, many other areas of life. This also applies to the former socialist countries, in which a "religious boom" began after the collapse of the socialist system. Equally, if not more, the influence of religion is great in developing countries, where the general cultural and educational level is usually lower. That is why acquaintance with the religious composition of the population is necessary for understanding many processes and phenomena of our time.

Knowledge religious affiliation population helps to better understand the features of the economic and social geography of certain regions of the world. So, in Muslim countries, there are practically no such branches of agriculture as pig breeding and winemaking (due to religious prohibitions on the use of pork and wine). The influence of religion sometimes affects the character of clothing and the color of fabrics produced by the textile industry. Religious traditions (especially Islamic) find their manifestation in the mode of population reproduction, the level of employment of women, etc.

The geography of religions reflects the complex processes of the development of the planet, the development of world civilization as a whole, as well as the spiritual culture of individual countries and peoples.

The British Encyclopedia for 1998 provides the following data on the religious composition of the population of various countries:

Religion	Number of believers (million)	Main regions and countries of distribution
Christianity, including Catholicism	2000 1040	Countries in Europe, North and Latin America, Asia (Philippines)
Protestantism	360	Countries in Europe, North America, Australia, New Zealand, Africa (South Africa and the former Colonies of Great Britain)
Orthodoxy	190	Countries of Eastern Europe (Russia, Bulgaria, Serbia, Ukraine, Belarus, etc.)
Islam	900	European countries (Albania, Macedonia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Russia), Asian countries, North Africa
Buddhism and Lamaism	350	China, Mongolia, Japan, Myanmar, Thailand, Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos, Malaysia, Sri Lanka, Russia (Buryatia, Tuva)
Hinduism	740	India, Nepal, Sri Lanka
Confucianism	200	China
Shintoism	Japan
Local traditional religions	Countries in Africa, South America, Oceania, China, Indonesia

From the data in the table it follows that in overseas Europe Christianity is spread almost exclusively in all three of its forms. Catholicism is most widely represented in its southern, partly western and eastern parts, Protestantism - in the northern, central and western parts, Orthodoxy - in the east and southeast. In the CIS countries most widespread received Christianity (Orthodoxy and Catholicism) and Islam.

V overseas Asia all world and major national religions are widespread. This Islam (Islam) is predominantly Sunni and only in Iran (partly in Iraq and Yemen) is Shiite. Indonesia is one of the largest Muslim countries (in terms of the number of believers - about 150 million). In foreign Asia widespread: Buddhism, Hinduism, Confucianism, Shintoism, Judaism, as well as Christianity, which spread only in the Philippines, Lebanon (along with Islam) and Cyprus.

In North Africa, in some sub-Saharan countries, Somalia and parts of Ethiopia, Sunni Islam dominates. In South Africa, among the white population, Protestantism prevails, in Ethiopia - Christianity. In all other countries, both Christianity (Catholicism and Protestantism) and traditional local beliefs are represented.

In North America, Christianity dominates in two forms. For example, in the United States, out of 140 million believers, 72 million are Protestants and 52 million are Catholics. There are more Catholics in Canada than Protestants. Latin America is dominated by Catholicism, so America accounts for more than half of all Catholics in the world.

In Australia, the majority of believers are Protestants, about twice as many as Catholics.

Recently, the countries of the Muslim world are beginning to play an increasing role in international relations, politics, economics, ideology, and culture.

About half of all Christians are concentrated in Europe (including Russia), a quarter - in North America, over 1/6 - in South America. There are significantly fewer adherents of Christianity in Africa, Australia and Oceania.

6. The main branches of Christianity - Catholicism, Orthodoxy and Protestantism

The largest of these is Roman Catholic Church ... It is headed by the Pope, revered by the believers as the viceroy of Christ on Earth, and the Pope's residence is in the sovereign state of the Vatican, located on the territory of Rome. Adherents of Catholicism in Europe predominate in Italy, Spain, Portugal, Ireland, France, Belgium, Austria, Luxembourg, Malta, Hungary, Czech Republic, Poland. The Catholic faith is also held by about half of the population of Germany, Switzerland, the Netherlands, part of the population of the Balkan Peninsula, Western Ukrainians (the Uniate Church), etc. In Asia, a predominantly Catholic country - the Philippines, but Catholicism is professed by many citizens of Lebanon, Syria, Jordan, India, Indonesia. In Africa, many residents of Gabon, Angola, Congo, the island states of Mauritius, Cape Verde are Catholics. Seychelles and others. Catholicism is also widespread in the USA, Canada, and Latin American countries.

Orthodoxy has traditionally strengthened mainly in Russia, Ukraine, Belarus and some countries of Eastern Europe. Until recently, there were 16 autocephalous (independent, not subordinate to a single center) in the world. Orthodox churches.

Protestantism in contrast to Catholicism and Orthodoxy, it is a collection of many movements and churches, the most influential of which are Lutheranism (mainly the countries of Northern Europe), Calvinism (in some countries of Western Europe and North America) and Anglicanism, half of whose adherents are English.

Cradle islam(VII c) the cities of Saudi Arabia are considered - Mecca and Medina. A huge role in its spread was played by the conquests of the Arabs and the state they created - the Arab Caliphate. The geography of Islam, in comparison with Christianity, is more compact (mainly the Near and Middle East). However, Islam also penetrated into those countries where Arab conquerors have never been, for example, Indonesia, where it is practiced by 90% of the population, Malaysia (60%), the countries of Black Africa, Tatarstan, Bashkortostan and other countries and regions.

In Islam, as in other world religions, there is no unity. This is confirmed by the existence in it two main directions - Sunni and Shiite ... Sunnis predominate numerically, Shiites live mainly in two countries - Iran and Iraq.

In many Islamic countries, Sharia plays a huge role, i.e. Muslim law, a set of legal and religious norms based on the Koran. It regulates social relations, economic activities, family and marriage relations, according to its laws, the court is administered. The constitutions of many countries have declared Islam the state religion.

Another world religion is considered Buddhism, formed earlier than Christianity and Islam (VI-V centuries BC) in the north of India. Exists two main directions in Buddhism: Mahayana and Hinayana ... Hinayan Buddhism is widespread mainly in South Asia (southern Buddhism): in Sri Lanka, individual states of India, Myanmar, Thailand, Laos, Cambodia. Mahayana adherents are found to the north (northern Buddhism): in China, Korea, Japan, Vietnam. One of the varieties of Mahayana - Lamaism - dominates in Tibet, Mongolia, Bhutan, as well as some regions of Russia - Buryatia, Tuva, Kalmykia.

The most common of national religions - Hinduism , which is professed by many millions of people, mainly in India. It could be attributed to world religions, however, given that 95% of all Hindus live in India, and Pakistan and Bangladesh (areas where most Hindus out of the remaining 5% are concentrated) were once part of a single India, Hinduism is traditionally considered a national religion.

In China, since ancient times, have become widespread Confucianism and Taoism , in Japan - Shintoism , in Israel - Judaism , professed Jewish population and in other countries, etc. It is important to remember that many religions are at the same time philosophical and ethical teachings.

In addition to basic religious beliefs, on Earth you can find numerous tribal religions , especially in Africa, partly in Asia and Oceania.

Historically, Jerusalem became the center of three religions widespread in the world at once - Judaism, Christianity and Islam. This means that the interests of believers all over the world intersect here.

The city has many historical and religious shrines that serve as objects of mass pilgrimage. Among them, the Church of the Holy Sepulcher is one of the most revered shrines of all Christians, built by the crusaders on the site of the crucifixion, burial and resurrection of Jesus Christ and located on the Calvary hill; Way of the cross(or Via Dolorosa) - the path of Christ to the place of the crucifixion; The Garden of Gethsemane is the place where Christ was betrayed; there are also the churches of Mary Magdalene and All Nations (Basilica of Agony), as well as the tomb of the Virgin Mary: Western Wall (Wailing Wall) - the most revered shrine of the Jews; the European quarter - the most ancient and newly restored part of the old city, where numerous synagogues are located; tower and citadel of David - one of the three towers of the wall ancient city(built by King Herod); the Al-Aqsa Mosque is the largest mosque in the city, as well as the Omar Mosque (Beit al-Suhur) - the third largest shrine of Islam after Mecca and Medina, etc.

Jerusalem is home to many other places associated with the Christian, Jewish and Islamic religions. Representatives of almost all Christian churches are also located here - Roman Catholic, Russian Orthodox, Greek Orthodox, Armenian Gregorian, Coptic, Ethiopian, etc. The Russian Spiritual Mission in Jerusalem was created back in 1847.

The problem of the "eternal city" is also one of the most sensitive in Arab-Israeli relations, having, in addition to the religious - psychological, international legal, territorial, legal, political, property aspects. In 1980, the Israeli parliament (Knesset) passed a law declaring all of Jerusalem the "eternal and indivisible capital" of Israel. In response, the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) has repeatedly announced its intention to make East Jerusalem the capital of the future Palestinian state. The royal dynasties of the Saudis (Saudi Arabia) and the Hashemites (Jordan), claiming a special role in protecting the Islamic shrines of the "eternal city", take a special position on the Jerusalem issue.

All this testifies to the fact that the problem of Jerusalem is one of the most subtle and delicate in world politics. Its solution should proceed from the need to ensure the rights of all confessions while preserving the historically established status between them, so that pilgrims have access to the holy places of all three religions.

Demographic trends

February 20, 2001 marks the 125th anniversary of death godfather demography. This now widely known word - "demography" - first appeared in the book "Elements of Human Statistics or Comparative Demography" by the Frenchman Jean-Claude Ashile GUILLARD, published in Paris in 1855.

Ashil Guillard was born in 1799. Statistician, educator and naturalist, he was one of the founders of the Statistical and Botanical Societies of Paris, the author of a number of works on population statistics. In particular, it was Guillard who was the first to propose (in 1853, at the first session of the International Statistical Congress in Brussels) to draw up a uniform nomenclature of diseases and causes of death for all countries. Now this idea of his is embodied in all countries of the world.

The word "demography" invented by Guillard spread gradually - first in France. In 1874, a book by Guillard's son-in-law Louis Adolphe Bertillon was published, The Demonstrable Demography of France. In 1882, it was officially recognized in the name of the International Congress of Hygiene and Demography, and by the beginning of the twentieth century it had spread widely in Europe - at first as a synonym for population statistics. The word "demography" entered the Russian language in connection with the International Statistical Congress held in St. Petersburg in 1872, and today it has become common.

Section 1.

The number and reproduction of the world's population

Demographic policy

Reproduction of the population- the process of generational change as a result of the natural movement of the population. To characterize the size and reproduction of the population, many demographic indicators are used, but the main ones are the birth rate, mortality rate (the number of births or deaths in 1 year per 1,000 inhabitants) and natural growth. Their value is expressed in% o (ppm), i.e. in thousandths.

In the period from the 8th millennium BC to the 15th century AD, the population of the Earth was small and grew very slowly. This period is characterized by a very high fertility rate of about 40-45% o, and a very high mortality rate of 30-35% o, and, as a result, low natural population growth. This was due to the low level of development of medicine, poor sanitary and hygienic living conditions with frequent epidemics and hunger. In this regard, there were periods in which the world population did not grow (200-400, 1200-1300), but, for example, from 1300 to 1400, the population decreased by 4 times due to the bubonic plague epidemic. By 1000, there were 275 million, by 1500 - 446 million, by 1800. - 906 million, by 1900. - 1608 million, by 1970. - 3698 million, by 1990. - 5292 million people. V modern world conditionally, two main types of population reproduction can be distinguished.

One of them is characterized by medium and even low birth rates and low mortality rates and a slowdown or stabilization of population growth rates ("demographic winter"). It is typical for the economically developed countries of the world.

Another 6 type of population reproduction is characterized by a very high birth rate, a decrease in mortality and, accordingly, high rates of population growth ("demographic spring"). The second type of reproduction is characterized by the concept of a demographic explosion (a sharp increase in natural population growth) in this case, the state takes measures to reduce population growth (for example, material incentives for one-child families, etc.), i.e. a family planning policy is being implemented to reduce the birth rate.

Demographic policy- a system of measures taken by the state in order to influence the natural movement of the population. For example, in China, the largest country in the world in terms of population, as a result of the demographic policy, natural growth decreased from 28% to 11%, i.e. became even lower than the world average.

For the first type of reproduction, depopulation is more characteristic. In this case, the state takes measures to stimulate the birth rate.

Despite the general tendencies of an increase in the world's population, in Russia as a whole for 1992-2000 the decline was 3.5 million people, or 2.4%. Since 1999, population decline has accelerated, amounting to 0.5% per year against 0.2-0.3% in 1995-1998. In absolute terms, the population decline in 2000 amounted to 751.1 thousand people against 784.5 thousand in 1999. The population of Russia is decreasing due to the growing excess of the number of deaths over the number of births. The migration inflow of the population to Russia only partially compensates for the natural decline of its own population - by 21.6% in 2000 against 16.7% in 1999. Although, it would seem, in the twentieth century, the population of Russia within its present borders has more than doubled, from 67.5 million according to the General Census of 1897 to 145 million in 2000. But in order to correctly judge the successes or failures of Russia's demographic path over a hundred years, one must take a closer look at it, and note that four times in a century, population growth was interrupted, and it suffered significant losses.

In all four cases, these losses were the result of a simultaneous sharp increase in the number of deaths and a decrease in the number of births, which led to a negative natural increase, in some cases, it was also aggravated by emigration outside Russia. First failure: World War I and the Civil War. Generalized estimates of the number of excess deaths due to hostilities, political repression, the 1921-1922 famine, the Spanish flu epidemic, etc., vary significantly, but, in any case, lead to very significant values. So, according to the calculations of A. Boyarsky, in 1915-1923 the country's population lost 12 million premature deaths, and according to F. Lorimer, their number for 1914-1926 was 16 million.

Second failure: collectivization and the famine of 1932-1933. From the end of 1929, the forced involvement of peasants in collective farms, accompanied by mass "dispossession", accelerated sharply. The wave of violence grew, and after the drought in the summer of 1932, the country was struck by massive famine. According to various estimates, direct losses of this period are estimated at 4-5 million people.

Third failure: World War II. Research by military historians has shown that only the irrecoverable losses of the armed forces amounted to 8.7 million people. The overall estimate of losses, taking into account civilians, was first raised to 20 million people in one of Khrushchev's speeches, and then to 26.6 million in the decision of the official commission of the USSR State Statistics Committee. In addition to the three main demographic catastrophes, there were still many periods of a crisis aggravation of the demographic situation, when it did not come to the reduction of the population, but the increase in mortality was very significant.

The last, fourth failure was mainly the result of a fall in the birth rate, while the contribution of the increase in mortality in 1989-1994 to the formation of negative natural increase was relatively small. Calculations show that even if the mortality rate did not change after 1989, all the same, starting from 1992, the natural increase in the population of Russia would become negative.

According to the 1998 Bureau of World Population, the total fertility rate in the world as a whole is 23% on average, including 26% in the developing region, and 11% in the developed region. More specifically, the presence of various types of population reproduction in the regional context is evidenced by the fact that this indicator, compared with the corresponding coefficient in Europe and North America, is 1.4 times higher, in Asia - 2.3 times, in Latin America (including the Caribbean region) - 2.5 times and in Africa - 4 times, in particular in West Africa - 4.5 times and in Central Africa - 4.6 times. In terms of fertility, not only large regions (continents) differ, but also their member states.

For example, in Asia, the crude birth rate is 26%, including in Oman and Yemen it is the highest (44%), and in Japan - the lowest (10%). The situation is similar in Africa, where the total fertility rate is 40%. It is highest in Mali and Angola (51%) and lowest in Mauritania (17%). The general trend is the transition to intrafamilial regulation of the birth of children and a gradual decrease in the birth rate. The crude birth rate is also quite contrasted in the post-Soviet space. In 1998, it did not exceed 10% o in the Russian Federation, Ukraine, Latvia, Estonia and Belarus, 15% o - in Lithuania, Georgia, Armenia, Moldova and Kazakhstan, 20% o in Azerbaijan. This indicator is only in countries Central Asia(Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan) reached 22-26%. Such a sharp differentiation of the birth rate, along with the non-simultaneous transition from traditional reproduction of the population to the modern type and many socio-economic factors, is also significantly influenced by the religious factor.

From the point of view of population reproduction, an even more important indicator is the total fertility rate (the number of children per woman for the entire fertile age), which averaged 2.9 in the world in 1998. The downward trend in fertility is a general pattern; in just two last years(1997-1998) on average in the world it decreased by 3 ppm. Currently, the total fertility rate in the developing region reaches 3.3, while in the developed region it does not exceed 1.6. Compared to Europe, this indicator is 1.4 times higher in North America, 2 times higher in Asia, 2.1 times higher in Latin America (including the Caribbean region) and 4 times higher in Africa, including 4 , 3 times higher in East Africa and 4.6 times in Central Africa. Among the post-Soviet states, the total fertility rate in Ukraine, Belarus and Estonia does not exceed 1.3, in the Russian Federation and Latvia - 1.2, or for every hundred women over the entire period of fertile age, the number of children is within 120-130, while how even simple reproduction of the population requires at least 210 children. The mortality rate has undergone a significant transformation towards a reduction with the development of mankind in connection with overcoming massive epidemics, improving medical knowledge, reducing the frequency of devastating wars and a number of other progressive shifts. Despite this, the crude death rate is still different across continents and countries. For example, in 1998 in Africa it was 15 ppm, including in East Africa - 18%, in West and Central Africa - 16%, in Latin America - 7, in North America and Asia - 8, and in Europe -1% o, while in Eastern Europe -13% o. In developing countries, the main contributors to high mortality rates are poor health care and dire socioeconomic conditions. In developed countries, however, there is a deformed age structure of the population, environmental pollution with harmful substances and negative social phenomena(drug addiction, prostitution, traffic accidents, etc.). Among the countries of the post-Soviet space in 1998, the highest mortality rate was in Ukraine (15% o), then in the Russian Federation and Latvia (14% o), Belarus and Estonia (13% o), Moldova and Lithuania (12% o) , Kazakhstan (10% o). Below 10 ppm was observed in Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan, Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia. Although mortality rates are often artificially underestimated due to a deliberate or involuntary violation of the registration of deaths.

In contrast to the general rate, the infant mortality rate appears to be a very important concrete indicator of the intensity of mortality. Quite rightly, it is considered one of the essential aspects of the development of society, and basically it is on it that the level of development of the health care system in the country is judged. According to the Bureau of World Population, in 1998, for every 1000 live births under 1 year of age, an average of 58 children died in the world, including 64 in the developing region and 8. This figure is high in Africa (91 % o), especially in East Africa (104% o) and Central Africa (103% o), then in Asia (57% o). Latin America (36%), low in Europe (10%) and North America (7%). Among the countries of the former Soviet Union, the infant mortality rate is relatively low in Estonia and Lithuania (10% o), then in Belarus, Armenia, Ukraine, Latvia, the Russian Federation and Georgia (12% o). It is relatively high in Azerbaijan, Moldova, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan (19-28%), especially high in Tajikistan (32%) and Turkmenistan (42%).

The relationship between fertility and mortality gives an idea of the natural increase in the population. In the case when the birth rate exceeds the death rate, as a rule, expanded reproduction of the population is guaranteed. Conversely, if more dies than is born, all other things being equal, depopulation is inevitable - a natural absolute decline in the population. An analysis of the factual materials from this point of view shows that in 1998 around the world, on average, per 1000 people, natural population growth was 14%, but the difference in this respect between developed (1%) and developing (17%) regions reached 16 % o, which gives cause for thought. Among the continents, Africa (25% o) is distinguished by high natural population growth, especially Central Africa (30% o) and West Africa (29% o), then Latin America and the Caribbean (18% o), Asia (15% o), the lowest rate (6% o) took place in North America, and negative (minus% o) - in Europe, especially in Eastern Europe (minus 4% o). By 1998, depopulation among the post-Soviet states was observed in Ukraine and Latvia (minus 6% o), in the Russian Federation (minus 5% o), Belarus and Estonia (minus 4% o), Lithuania (minus 1% o). Despite the downward trend in the birth rate, demographic behavior, ensuring expanded reproduction of the population, is typical for the countries of Central Asia (Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan).

Section 2

Age and sex structure of the world population

Labor force and employment of the world's population

For clarity, the age and sex composition of the population is usually depicted as a sex and age pyramid. The gender imbalance is still not fully understood, although the predominance of male or female sex in some countries can be explained. It is also not difficult to notice that in childhood, as in the world as a whole, and in certain regions, men predominate. This is because, on average, 4 million more boys are born worldwide than girls per year. In the working age groups, a similar prevalence remains for the whole world, but in half of the regions it is replaced by the prevalence of women. As for the elderly, in this group the prevalence of women is widespread. The sharp, by about 16.5 million, predominance of women in the CIS is explained, first of all, by the impact of the First World War, the Civil War and, to a greater extent, the Second World War, but also by the very long life expectancy of women in the CIS countries. Roughly the same reasons influenced the gender composition of the population of Europe Abroad, where, with the exception of Ireland and Iceland, women predominate in all countries. Their preponderance is especially great in Austria and the FRG. In overseas Asia, by contrast, men predominate almost everywhere. The only exceptions are Japan, Indonesia, Myanmar, Yemen, Israel and Cyprus.

Quantitatively, the preponderance of men is highest in South and East Asia (in India by 24 million, in Pakistan by 4.5 million, in China by 31 million). The preponderance of men is also typical for all Arab-Muslim countries of South-West Asia. This is the result of centuries of the humiliation of women in families and society. Greater susceptibility to disease and higher mortality among women was due to early marriage, frequent childbirth, inadequate nutrition, and constant hard work at work and at home. Recent social transformations have just begun to affect the gender composition of the world's population. For African countries, sharp fluctuations in the sex composition are not typical, and in the overwhelming majority of them the number of men and women is approximately equal. Nevertheless, in the northern, Arab-Muslim, part of the mainland, there is a slight predominance of men, while in East Africa, for example, the predominance of women. In North America, as in a region of relatively new colonization and a massive influx of immigrants - mostly men - the male population predominated for a long time. But gradually, first in the United States, and in the 70s and in Canada, there was a preponderance of women. This is especially true for older people. In Latin America, as in Africa, the number of men and women is approximately equal. In Australia, as a country of continuing massive influx of immigrants, men, as in Canada, prevailed until the early 70s. Then there was a slight preponderance of women. In developed countries, the male population prevails in rural areas, women in cities, and in developing countries, on the contrary, the female population prevails in rural areas, and the male population in cities. An important indicator characterizing the age composition of the population is the median age. The median divides the entire population into two parts by age: one is older than this age level, the other is younger. The age structure of the population largely determines its productive part - labor resources. It is also important to take into account the ratio between the able-bodied and the disabled (children and the elderly) part of the population. This indicator is called demographic load. On average, 100 able-bodied people in the world provide 70 children and pensioners with their earnings. In developing countries this indicator is often 100 per 100, while in Japan it is 100 per 41. In Russia, Belarus, Ukraine, the Baltic countries, the demographic load is approximately equal to the world average. Another category is also distinguished - people who actually participate in material production or the non-production sphere - the economically active population. Its share varies from country to country. In the developed countries of the West, about 70% of all labor resources are economically active. This situation is primarily associated with unemployment. It sometimes reaches 10 and more percent of the labor force. The share of the economically active population in developing countries is even less - 45-55%. The employment structure of developed and developing countries is very different. Developing countries are characterized by a high proportion of those employed in the agricultural sector of the economy. In second place is the service sector (in Latin America it even came out on top), which is largely due to the spread of small-scale trade. Industry (and, mainly, extractive industries) and construction in terms of the share of labor force in developing countries are only in third place. In developed countries, the share of the agricultural population is disproportionately smaller, while the share of the population employed in the service sector and in industrial production is larger. In the UK, Germany, Belgium, France, Sweden, about 40% of the economically active population work in the service sector, and in the USA - more than 50%. In developed countries, a larger share of the labor force is involved in production than in developing countries, due to the greater employment of women.

Section 3

Racial ethnic and religious composition of the world population

Humanity is usually divided into four main races.: Caucasian (42.9%), Mongoloid (19.1%), Negroid (7%), Australoid (0.3%), and the remaining 30% are representatives of mixed and intermediate racial groups.

Marriage between Caucasians and Mongoloids is born mestizo, and marriages of Caucasians with blacks led to the emergence mulattos... The descendants of mixed marriages of Negroes with Indians currently represent the Sambo group. America can be called the "homeland" of these racial groups - here, during the period of colonization, numerous marriages were concluded between the European colonialists and the local Mongoloid Indian population, or blacks-slaves brought here from Africa to work on plantations.

Ethnos- a historically formed community of people united by language, territory, economy, culture, national identity.

Three forms of unification processes are distinguished - consolidation, assimilation and interethnic integration. Consolidation- the process of merging relatively large peoples, related in origin and language, and the formation of larger ones. Assimilation- absorption by a larger and more developed ethnos of a smaller one, which is losing its national characteristics and self-consciousness. Interethnic integration- the interaction of various ethnic groups, usually within the state, leading to the emergence of certain signs of community in them. The classification of ethnic groups is made according to the number of languages, or according to the principle of linguistic proximity. In the modern world, there are 3-4 thousand different ethnic groups, the number of which ranges from several dozen people to hundreds of millions. There are ten most numerous peoples, numbering over 100 million people each and making up about 50% of the total population of the Earth: Han Chinese, Hindustans, US Americans, Bengalis, Russians, Brazilians, Japanese, Punjabis or Punjabis, Biharians, Mexicans. The most common languages are: Chinese, Hindi, Spanish, English, Bengali, Arabic, Russian, Portuguese, Japanese, German, French, Malay-Indonesian (italicized official languages UN). However, the number of existing languages in the world is estimated to be up to 3 thousand.

According to the ethnic composition of the population, 5 types of states are distinguished :

Mono-national (the main nationality is over 90%) - about half of the states of the world: most of the states of Europe, the Middle East and Latin America;

With a sharp predominance of one nation, but with more or less significant national minorities: Great Britain, France, Spain, Romania, China, Mongolia, USA, Australia, New Zealand, etc .;

Binational: Canada, Belgium;

With a more complex ethnic composition, but relatively homogeneous ethnically: in Asia - Iran, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Malaysia, Laos;

in Central, Eastern and Southern Africa;

Multinational, with a complex and ethnically diverse composition:

India (about 1500 peoples!), Russia, Switzerland, Indonesia, the Philippines, many countries of West and South Africa.

Language families are also distinguished, the largest of them are:

The Indo-European family includes the following groups:

Slavic

Romanesque

Germanic,

Iranian

Indo-Aryan,

Celtic

Albanian

Greek

Armenian

Nuristan

The Sino-Tibetan language family, which is the second most populous:

Chinese and

Tibeto-Burmese group

· Semitic-Hamitic or Afrasian family.

Even in primitive society, the simplest forms of religious beliefs (tribal) arose - totemism, magic, fetishism, animism and the cult of ancestors. Totemism, for example, was widespread among the aborigines of Australia, Melanesians, and American Indians.

Later, more complex shapes religions. They arose among one people, or among a group of nations united in a state. This is how local religions appeared - these are Judaism, Hinduism, Shintoism, Confucianism, Taoism and others. Some of them have spread among the peoples of different countries and continents - these are world religions - Buddhism, Islam and Christianity.

The role of religion in modern society remains very significant. This applies to the economically developed countries of the West, where the Church, especially the Catholic Church, acts as a major banker, landowner, influences politics, education, school education, and many other spheres of life. This also applies to the CIS countries.

In Europe abroad, Christianity is spread almost exclusively, and in all three forms. At the same time, Catholicism is most widely represented in its southern, partly western and eastern parts, Protestantism - in the northern, partly in the central and western parts, Orthodoxy in the southeast.

In the CIS countries, Orthodoxy and Islam are the most widespread among believers.

In foreign Asia, many world religions are widespread, as well as many large local religions. This, first of all, Islam (Islam) is predominantly Sunni and only in Iran, partly in Iraq and Yemen - of the Shiite persuasion. The largest Muslim country in terms of the number of believers is Indonesia. Christianity is widespread in the Philippines and in Lebanon and Cyprus.

In North Africa, in a number of countries lying to the south of the Sahara, in Somalia and parts of Ethiopia, Sunni Islam dominates. In South Africa (among the white population) Protestantism prevails, in Ethiopia - Christianity. In all other countries, mainly Christians (Catholics and Protestants) and adherents of local traditional religions, who make up the majority of believers.

In North America, two forms of Christianity prevail - Protestantism and Catholicism. In Latin America, professing Catholicism prevails. So America accounts for more than half of all Catholics in the world. Recently, the countries of the Muslim world have begun to play an increasing role in international relations, politics, economics, and culture.

Today, the largest number of adherents of Christianity is over 1000 million people. While Muslims - 600 million people, Buddhism - 350 million people. But we must not forget that most of the Muslims live in Asian countries, where the rate of population growth is very high, and, therefore, the number of Muslims is constantly increasing.

Section 4

Placement of the population and forms of settlement

Urbanization and its modern forms

The distribution of the population is due to four factors.

First- natural conditions. It is indisputable that territories with extreme natural conditions like a desert, ice spaces, tropical forests, high mountains, do not create favorable conditions for human life.

Second- the impact of the historical features of the settlement of the earth's land. The process of forming people modern look took place 40-30 thousand years ago in South-West Asia, North-East Africa and Southern Europe. (This concept is called broad monocentrism). From here, people then spread throughout the Old World. Between 30 and 10 millennia BC, they settled in the North and South America, and at the end of this period, and Australia.

Third- differences in the current demographic situation (for example, in Bangladesh, a country with a small area, the population density is more than 750 people per 1 km2).

Fourth- the impact of socio-economic conditions on people's lives. One of its manifestations may be the tendency for the majority of the population to be located on the coasts of the seas and oceans.

The countries of the world can be divided into 3 groups by population density .

A very high population density for a single country can, obviously, be considered an indicator of over 200 people per 1 km2. For example - Belgium, Netherlands, Great Britain, Israel, Lebanon, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Republic of Korea, Rwanda, El Salvador.

And, finally, the indicator of the lowest density can be attributed to 2 people per 1 km2. This group includes Mongolia, Libya, Mauritania, Nambia, Guiana, Australia and Greenland (0.02 people / km2).

Urbanization(from Latin urbs - city) - the growth of cities, an increase in the share of citizens in the total population, an increase in the role of cities in all aspects of society, as well as the spread of the urban way of life to the countryside. Urbanization - (from the English rural - rural and urbanization) the spread of urban forms and living conditions in rural settlements, component the process of urbanization in its broadest sense. Urbanization can be accompanied by the migration of the urban population to rural settlements, the transfer to the countryside of forms of economic activity characteristic of cities (trade, services to the population according to the urban model, etc.).

A city is a large settlement that performs industrial, organizational, economic, cultural, managerial, transport and other, in addition to agricultural, functions. The "size" of a city is measured by its population, that is, by the number of people living in it. There are no general criteria in the world according to which a settlement receives the status of a "city". In Russia, for example, a city can be a settlement with a population of more than 12 thousand people, among which 85% are workers, employees, as well as members of their families (i.e. they should not be employed in agriculture), in Denmark , Sweden, Finland it can be a settlement with a population of more than 200 people. And, for example, in India, a city becomes a settlement with more than 5 thousand people, the population density is not less than 1 thousand people per square meter. mile and 15% of the adult male population is not employed in agriculture.

The territories of large cities are rapidly expanding and agglomerations are formed - large cities with suburban settlements developing under their influence. For example, the Moscow agglomeration has 12 million people, while Moscow has 9 million.

The highest link in urbanization is the formation of megalopolises - clusters of agglomerations and cities lying at a close distance from each other and tending to merge. For example, the metropolis of Boston - Washington, with a population of about 40 million, stretches along the Atlantic coast. But in economically developed countries, environmental problems caused by urbanization have led to suburbanization.

Suburbanization is the growth of the suburbs. For example, the USA is a country of suburbs - 60% of the population of metropolitan areas live there. Ratio of rural and urban population by region.

But there is also such a phenomenon as false or slum urbanization - this is the forced relocation of unskilled rural residents to cities, where they are forced to live in slum areas due to low or no wages. The main forms of settlement are:

Nomadic and semi-nomadic settlement. It is inherent in only a few tens of millions of people who inhabit mainly the strip of deserts and semi-deserts of North Africa and Central Asia and are engaged in cattle breeding and seasonal use of mountain and lowland pastures.

Sedentary settlement consists of group (urban and rural settlements) and dispersed (agricultural and service settlements) settlement.

Section 5

Population migration

Migrations- this is the relocation of people. There are two types of migration - internal (resettlement of people from region to region within the country) and external (resettlement from country to country). According to the duration, migrations are subdivided into permanent, temporary and seasonal. Emigration - the departure of people from their country for permanent residence, and immigration - the entry into another country.

In terms of form, migrations are voluntary and compulsory; for reasons - political, economic, social.

Common forms of international migration of the population are: labor migration, migration for family reunification, migration of refugees and seekers political asylum and illegal migration. Labor migration is usually caused by the uneven distribution of labor resources across continents, regions, countries, the formation of an excess labor force as a result of an imbalance in some of the labor force with jobs, as well as the desire of people to do easier and more hygienic work, get higher wages, possibly more high profits, etc. What are the main directions of international migration flows? The largest migration flows are directed from Asia and Latin America to North America (USA, Canada).

Migration flows from North Africa, Eastern Europe and the countries of the former Soviet Union are mainly directed to Western and Northern Europe. The Middle East receives migration flows mainly from Africa and Asia. On the the present stage the largest number of emigrants is from Mexico and the Philippines. About 10 million emigrants left Mexico and 7.6 million from the Philippines.

International migration is characterized by a rapid growth trend. If until the 90s of the XX century the number of international migrants annually increased by 2 million people, now it is increasing by 3-4 million. By 1998, about 150 million people (2.5% of the world's population) lived in those countries of which they were not citizens. Almost half of the world's migrant population live in countries of the developing world, especially in countries rich in oil, natural gas, gold, diamonds and other minerals, where industrial production is developing at an accelerated pace. Approximately one third of migrants are concentrated in 7 developed countries of the world (USA, Canada, Italy, France, Germany, Great Britain, Japan), the population of which is less than 12% of the world's population. For example, by 1998 there were up to 26 million migrants in the United States, which is equal to 10% of the country's population. In Europe, the overwhelming majority of migrants (up to about 60%) live in France and Germany. France has 5.9 million migrants, accounting for 10% of the country's population. In Germany, 7 million migrants - 8.5% of the country's population. In small states, the number of foreigners is insignificant, but in the entire population of the country their specific gravity high enough. So, in Luxembourg 31% of the country's population are foreigners, in Switzerland - 18%, in Belgium - 9.1%, in Austria - 8.6%. In the 1990s, half a million Asians arrive in North America and Australia every year. They emigrate mainly from China, India, the Philippines, Bangladesh and Indonesia. 1980-1995 over a million Asian refugees have arrived in the United States. They were mostly Vietnamese, Lao and Cambodians. In the same period, approximately 450,000 people from Central America found refuge in the United States. It is noteworthy that at present there are 23 million refugees in the world. Consequently, the unevenness of political, economic and demographic development in the world contributes to the emergence of significant migration flows between countries. If political migration as a result of the efforts of the international community is likely to decrease significantly in the near future, then the prospect of a slowdown in the intensity of migration caused by economic reasons is not visible in the foreseeable future. Despite this, one thing is undoubtedly: migration, like the main demographic processes, requires appropriate management and regulation, consistent implementation of an active state demographic policy, developed and scientifically substantiated taking into account regional characteristics.

Internal mass migrations of the population were caused primarily by urbanization, since all cities experienced or are experiencing an influx or outflow of population. The resettlement of the rural population to the cities captured hundreds of millions of inhabitants of the planet. The scale of this type of migration is so great that it is called "the great migration of the peoples of the 20th century."

In 1979, UN specialists developed a list of the main reasons for internal migration:

· Difficult working conditions in agriculture, long working hours.

· Low wages.

· Insufficiently comfortable living conditions in the countryside as compared to the city.

· Hopelessness in agricultural work.

80% state the budget is allocated for the development of the city.

· There are opportunities for recreation and entertainment.

· There is a possibility of receiving higher wages.

· The presence of a large number of children.

· The use of primitive means of labor.

Section 7

Demographic projections

After the start of the "population explosion" in the 50-60s, the first long-term forecasts of its development began to appear.

Some of them were completely frightening in nature. They proceeded from the assumption that the average annual population growth will continue to grow, and by the middle of the 21st century there will be 50 billion people on Earth; at the same time, the average population density of the inhabited land will be 370 people per 1 km2. The scenario for the year 2300 assumed an increase in the number of earthlings to 1 trillion. Human. One English statistician has calculated that with an annual growth rate of 1.5%, by 3000 the world population will grow to 14 trillion, and in 5000 it will be determined by a truly fantastic figure with 27 zeros. With such a development of events in 3000, one resident would have had 103 square centimeters. sushi, and in 5000 this figure would have dropped to millionths of a millimeter.

In 1972, a group of analysts led by Dennis Meadows, commissioned by the Club of Rome, which unites eminent scientists, businessmen and statesmen from different countries, prepared the report "The Limits to Growth." The computer modeling of world development options carried out by them showed that if the rates of population growth, industrialization, environmental pollution persist, then the needs of mankind in the next 100 years may go beyond the physical capabilities of our planet. This catastrophe threatens with a sudden crisis in production and an uncontrolled decline in the number

population. Dangerous trends can be changed if the problem of population growth is tackled together with the problems of economic growth and social progress. The conditions for the survival of mankind should be ecological and economic stability, as well as providing all people with equal opportunities to meet basic material needs and realize their creative potential. But still, most demographers thought differently, predicting an upcoming decline in the pace of average annual growth. Moreover, some scientists put forward a hypothesis of stabilization of the Earth's population, which meant that over time, its growth will not only decrease, but even stop altogether, that is, it will become zero. The stabilization of the world's population was already mentioned in the "World Population Action Plan" adopted in 1974 as a UN document. The famous academician S.G. Strumilin was the first Soviet scientist, long before the adoption of international documents, to put forward such a version. And in the 70s. years it was developed in more detail by the demographer Urlanis. B. Ts. Urlanis suggested that the stabilization of the population should take place under the condition that the average life expectancy of men and women is 74.8 years, the birth and death rates will be equal at the level of 13.4 ppm. At the same time, the age composition of the population will also stabilize: the share of children under 15 will decrease to 20%, the share of people of working age (15-64 years) will be 63%, and the share of people over 65 will increase to 17%. B. Ts. Urlanis believed that detailed stabilization should come at the beginning of the XXII century at the level of 12.3 billion people. Later, when at the fourth UN World Population Conference in Mexico City in 1984, UN experts suggested that stabilization in the XXII century at the level of 10.5 billion people was made, this figure was most prevalent in the scientific literature. [№7, pp. 138-139] In general, all forecasts of the world's population can be determined according to seven scenarios that differ in terms of the birth rate (the number of children born to a woman in her entire life). World Population Forecast. The high fertility scenario assumes that by 2050 each woman will have an average of 2.5-2.5 children, and the birth rate of the world's population by 2050 will increase to 11.2 billion people, by 2100 to 17.5, and by 2150, up to 27 billion. According to this scenario, the population in the first group will increase by 2.3 times, and in the second group, population growth will occur from 4.6 billion people at present, to 24.5 billion by 2150, which is 2.5 times higher than the results. forecast for the scenario of average fertility. According to the low fertility scenario, there will be 1.35-1.6 children per woman, and the forecast according to this scenario is significantly different - the population will first increase - to 7.7 billion people by 2050, and then decrease to 5.6 billion by 2100 and up to 3.6 billion by 2250, that is, by the end of the forecast period, it will amount to 2/3 of the current level. If in 2050 the difference in the population size between the scenarios is 50%, then by 2150 the population under the high fertility scenario will exceed the population calculated under the low fertility scenario by 6.6 times. Under the scenario of low fertility, the population in the first group will fall to 355 million people and will be 1/3 of the level predicted by the scenario of the average fertility. According to the scenario of fertility at the level of simple reproduction, the population of the countries of the 1st group will increase to 1.28 billion people by 2150, that is, by 22%, and of the 2nd group to 8.17 billion, that is, by 76%, which, of course , is associated with the different age structure of these countries. · There are also two intermediate scenarios - with fertility above and below the average. · The above-average fertility scenario assumes that fertility by 2050 will be exactly the same as the high fertility scenario, and after this year, fertility will decline to 10% higher. In accordance with this intermediate version of the forecast, the world's population will reach 18.3 billion by 2150. · Under the below-average fertility scenario, it assumes that fertility until 2050 will be exactly in line with the low fertility scenario, and after this year, fertility will decline to 10% lower. Based on this forecast, the world's population will reach 6.4 billion by 2150. · Constant fertility scenario means that fertility growth rates up to 2150 will remain the same as they were in 1990-1995. According to this scenario, the population of the Earth by 2150 will grow very significantly - up to 296 billion, that is, it will be 27 times higher than predicted under the scenario of average fertility. But this scenario is unlikely. Under the constant fertility scenario, population growth will be the most rapid. While the population in the 1st group will decline by 11%, the population will increase 63 times. In particular, the population of Europe will decline by 61%, and the population of Africa will increase 300 times. Mortality trends are projected in terms of life expectancy at birth. In this forecast, as in all previous forecasts, the fact of a steady decline in mortality throughout the world is used. If other options for the behavior of mortality in the world were used, then there would be much more forecast options. If in the previous UN forecast (1992) the maximum life expectancy for men was estimated at 82.5 years, and for women at 87.5 years, then according to average estimates it will be 87.5 ice for men and 92.5 for women. At the same time, the growth rate of life expectancy will be higher in those countries that previously had lower rates, which will lead to a gradual blurring of differences in life expectancy between developed and developing countries. If in 1990-1995 the difference in life expectancy of women in group 1 or group 2 was 13 years, then by 2150 it will decrease to only 4 years. Globally, life expectancy will increase from 62.2 years for men and 88.2 years for women in 2145-2150. Thus, over a 155-year period of time, life expectancy will increase by more than 21 years. North America will reach the highest life expectancy, with women living to an average of 92.5 years by 2150. With regard to the forecast under consideration, it should be noted that international migration is taken into account here only until 2050, and outside it is not taken into account. Additional analytical script-script with fertility at the level of simple reproduction - means that each married couple will have strictly 2 children, starting from the present time. Under this equally unlikely scenario, the population will still grow - to 9.5 billion people by 2150, which is 67% more than the 1995 level. This scenario takes into account the age structure of the population, most of which falls on young ages, which means a constant influx of the population into reproductive age groups, as a result of high birth rates in the past. The upper limit of the world's population under the 11 billion average fertility scenario is 6% lower under this projection than the previous 1992 UN projection. The decline in the world's population of almost 0.7 billion people according to this projection is due to the fact that developing countries demonstrate lower birth rates than previously assumed. · The average fertility scenario assumes that fertility by 2055 will stabilize at the level of simple reproduction (2 children per woman). According to this scenario, the world's population will reach 9.4 billion by 2050, 10.4 billion by 2100 and 10.8 billion by 2150. In accordance with the results of the forecast for the scenario of average fertility, the population will increase from 5.7 billion people in 1995 to 10.8 billion by 2150, and this growth of 99.8% will be provided by the countries of group 2 (countries of Asia, Africa, Latin America + Caribbean), while Group 1 (Europe, North America and Oceania) will account for only 0.2% of this growth. The population of the 1st group increased in 1950-1995 by 43.9%, and after 1995 the growth of the population practically stopped. By 2050, the population growth in the 1st group is projected by only 1.3%, after which a decline will begin, which by 2150 will be 0.6%. The largest decline in numbers will occur in Europe. It will decline from 728 million in 1995 to 595 million by 2150, that is, by 22% over the forecast period. The population size of North America and Oceania, unlike Europe, will not decline; on the contrary, it will increase by 39% and 82%, respectively. At the same time, in the countries of the 2nd group, there will be a rapid population growth - by 110% over a 155-year period. The population of Africa will almost quadruple. Population growth is projected in the same way in Asia, but at different rates and in different countries. At the same time, oddly enough, the smallest growth in population is outlined in China - by only 31%, while in India - 80%, and in other Asian countries, the population will more than double. The populations of the Caribbean and Latin America will increase by 92%. But the fastest growth rate - in African countries - in 1955, the population of Europe was almost twice the population of Africa in number, then in 2150 the population of Europe will be only 1/5 of the population of Africa. Under the average fertility scenario, the population will age significantly by 2150. The average age of the population will increase from 25.4 years in 1995 to 36.5 years in 2050 and to 42.9 years by 2150. The proportion of the population under 15 in the world as a whole will decrease from 31.3% in 1995, to 20.5% in 2050 and to 17.5% by 2150. On the contrary, the number of people over 60 years old in the world as a whole will increase sharply from 9.5% in 1995 to 20.7% in 2050 and further to 30.5% by 2150. For comparison, let us note that if in 1995 the population under 15 was 3.3 times higher than the number of people over 60, by 2050 the number of the latter will already prevail over the former. By 2150, the number of people over 60 years old will be 74% more than the number of people under the age of 15 years. However, the fastest growing will be the oldest category of the population - 80 years and older. According to this projection, the population of this category will increase 17 times in 1995-2150: from 61 million in 1995 to 320 million in 2050 and to 1,054 million in 2150. Learn more about the population forecast. It should be noted that a shift in the age structure towards older age is observed for all considered scenarios. Of interest is the forecast of the age structure of the population for two groups of countries. In the 1st group in 1950, the proportion of people under 15 years old was estimated at 26.5%. By 1995, this share had dropped to 20.1%: and then it is projected to decline to 17% by 2150. In group 2, the proportion of people under 15 years old was traditionally higher and amounted to 37.9% in 1950. Further, this indicator is expected to decline rapidly: to 20.9% in 2050 and to 17.6 in 2150. At the same time, the population aged 60 and over will increase rapidly. So, in the 1st group, the share of this population increased from 12.2% in 1950 to 18% in 1995. In 2050, this share will significantly increase - up to 30.5%, and further growth will continue - up to 32.2% by 2150. In 2000, the share of people over 60 years old in the 1st group will be equal to the share of people under 15 years old. The shift towards older ages will be even more impressive in the 2nd group. In 1950, the proportion of people over 60 years old was only 6.5% in this group and increased by 1995 to only 7.6%. It is assumed that by 2050 this share will more than double and reach 19.4%, and by 2150 it will increase to 30.3%, only slightly behind the 1st group. By 2055, the proportion of people over 60 years old in group 2 will equal the proportion of the population under 15 years old. In 2150, the number of people aged 60 and over will exceed the total population of the world in 1965. If, when forecasting the population size, not only different options for the birth rate, but also the mortality rate were used, then the number of possible forecast scenarios would increase significantly, which can be shown by the example of India, in which the levels of fertility and mortality correspond to their average values for all developing countries... India's population in 1995 was estimated at 929 million, with a fertility rate of 3.39 and a life expectancy at birth of 60.3 years for men and 60.6 for women. The first version of the forecast: "Decrease in fertility, increase in life expectancy" gives the same figures previous forecast... According to the second version of the forecast "Constant fertility, constant life expectancy" - the population of India will reach 2.1 billion in 2150 - 7.4 billion, which is more than 4 times higher than the previous forecast. The next version of the forecast: "Declining fertility, constant life expectancy" suggests that the population of India will grow to 1.3 billion people by 2050, which is 15% less than the first version, and in 2150 it will be only 7000 million people, which 60% less than the first option and 90% less than the second. Finally, according to the fourth version of the forecast: "Constant fertility, increase in life expectancy", the population of India by 2050 will reach 2.6 billion people, which is 70% higher than the value obtained under the first option, and by 2150 it will increase to 18.5 billion , which is more than 10 times higher than the forecast for the first option and 2.5 times - for the second option. These figures show that changes in the birth rate have 4 times more impact on the population than changes in the death rate. This confirms the correctness of the basic concept of this forecast. By the way, if you compose a portrait of the average inhabitant of the Earth, taking into account age, gender and nationality, then today it will be a 26-year-old Chinese woman. By 2050, she will be a resident of India for 38 years, according to UN experts. ...

Plan:

1 The largest countries in the world by population
2 General trends in the growth of the world's population
3 Bibliography

Introduction

Earth population- continuously renewing in the process of reproduction, the totality of people living on Earth as a whole.

At the beginning of our era, there were already 300 million on Earth, by the end of the 1st millennium AD. e. - 360 million, in 1800 - 980 million, in 1900 - 1.6 billion, in 1960 - 3 billion, in 1993 - 5.65 billion, on October 12, 1999, the population of the Earth was 6 billion people, in 2003 - 6.3 billion , in 2006 - 6.5 billion, in 2010 - 6.8 billion people, forecast for 2050 - 9.1 billion people. Until the 1970s, the world's population was growing according to a hyperbolic law; at present, there is a progressive slowdown in the growth rate of the Earth's population.

1. The largest countries in the world by population

Countries with a population of over 80 million. as of January 2011:

№	The country	Population	Growth
1	PRC	1 339 735 616	▲ 0.498%
2		1 177 995 904	▲ 1.606%
3	USA	309 824 646	▲ 0.894%
4		245 512 357	▲ 1.213%
5		192 572 592	▲ 1.008%
6		168 800 039	▲ 0.828%
7		158 255 312	▲ 1.379%
8		146 019 909	▲ 0.55%
9		141 935 896	▼ -0.03%
10		127 288 419	▼ -0.088%
11		109 955 400	▲ 1.153%
12		94 281 287	▲ 1.764%
13		86 986 560	▲ 1.004%
14		82 713 520	▲ 1.721%
15		81 369 548	▼ -0.033%

2. General trends in the growth of the world's population

Trends in the world's population, in billions of people, 10,000 BC e. - 2000 n. e.

In the works of Heinz von Foerster, A.V. Korotaev, S.P. Kapitsa, Michael Kremer and other scientists, it is shown that the growth of the Earth's population over the past 6 thousand years (up to the 60s - 70s of the XX century) followed a hyperbolic law, that is, the absolute growth rates of the Earth's population tended to be proportional to the square of its size. Starting in the 1960s, the relative rates of population growth began to slow down more and more, and the world hyperbolic demographic growth was replaced by the opposite type of growth, logistic. Since 1989, the absolute growth rates of the world's population have also begun to decline, which can be considered a completely logical result of the global demographic transition.

3. Bibliography

Kapitsa S.P. General theory of human growth: How many people have lived, live and will live on Earth. M .: Nauka, 1999. ISBN 5-02-008299-6
A. V. Korotaev, A. S. Malkov, D. A. Khalturina The laws of history. Mathematical modeling of the development of the World System. Demography, economics, culture .. - 2nd ed. - M: URSS, 2007 .-- ISBN 5-484-00957-X

Notes (edit)

Federal State Statistics Service. On the estimation of the resident population as of January 1, 2010, as of January 1, 2011. and on average for 2010, taking into account the preliminary results of the 2010 All-Russian Population Census. - www.gks.ru/bgd/free/b04_03/Isswww.exe/Stg/d01/65oz-shisl28.htm
Korotaev A.V., Malkov A.S., Khalturina D.A. Laws of history. Mathematical modeling of the development of the World System. Demography, economics, culture. - cliodynamics.ru/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=65&Itemid=37 2nd ed. M .: URSS, 2007; Kapitsa S.P. General theory of human growth: How many people have lived, live and will live on Earth. - www.i-u.ru/biblio/archive/capica_skolko/ M .: URSS, 2009

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